Ben Linfoot on where he is within various topics of discussion in the racing world, from the St Leger to Constitution Hill.
Where I am with... the St Leger
It’s a bit disappointing that the best Betfred St Leger hope that Britain can muster is a horse that was beaten into second off a mark of 88 in a handicap last time but, that aside, it looks an interesting renewal thanks to the O’Briens.
The extended 1m6f trip looks well within Derby winner Christmas Day’s grasp and any lack of rain could be compensated for by him going out in distance, for all that he simply looks a better horse when the ground is riding genuinely soft.
With that in mind he looks a favourite to take on and it’s no surprise the money has come for Joseph O’Brien’s Enceladus.
His price is getting towards the point of no return at 9/4, and the Town Moor Classic could well be a no-bet race for me, but this son of Sea The Stars is improving rapidly and there may well be more to come from him going out in trip.
It would be no surprise if he goes off favourite, but I’m also fascinated to see what his stablemate Highwayman does on Saturday.
Beaten by 32 horses as he lost out by a combined 57 lengths on his first three starts, things began to turn for him when he ran a cracker at 250/1 beaten just over four lengths in a Naas maiden over a mile on his fourth start on June 24.
Since then he’s won a mile and a half maiden at Killarney by nine lengths and a 1m6f Listed race at Leopardstown by two-and-a-quarter-lengths, and the zero to hero story arc will be complete if can add a St Leger to such a bizarre profile!
Where I am with... the Irish Champion
The test facing Constitution River in the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown on Saturday much depends on the strength of the British challenge.
Will second favourite Item even run if the ground is soft? There does look to be a bit of rain forecast on ground that is already described as ‘Good to Yielding’, but that is at least good news for Almaqam who was the subject of a positive bulletin from Ed Walker on Tuesday.
I’d be surprised if both Brits run to be honest and I make no apology for hooking this race with Constitution River despite him finishing third of the three aforementioned horses in the Juddmonte International at York.
We know the record of Aidan O’Brien in his own back yard – he has won this race 13 times – and after he acknowledged that Constitution River’s experience in the Juddmonte International was "a complete mess", you can be sure things will go much smoother for him at Leopardstown on Saturday.
Almaqam and/or Item, if he turns up, wouldn’t be the first well-fancied raiders to be overwhelmed by the might of Ballydoyle in this race and I expect Constitution River will turn the York form around.
I just can’t believe we saw the real Constitution River on the Knavesmire. He looked much better than that in his previous three runs and I’m sure he’ll be back to his best on Saturday.
Where I am with... William Haggas’ sprinters
Since Haggas reinvented Montassib as a sprinter he has produced a steady flow of top-quality six-furlong horses with the likes of Elmonjed and Division springing to mind.
None have looked as good as Almeraq did at Haydock on Saturday, though, when he ran away with the Betfair Sprint Cup to the tune of four-and-a-quarter lengths as he supplemented his Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes success with another Group 1 win.
Multiple Group 1 winners at sprinting trips in the same season have been hard to come by in this country in recent years and things could get even better for him in the British Champions Sprint at Ascot given he looks right at home on autumnal conditions.
There does have to be a degree of caution given it looked a weak renewal of the Haydock feature with just the eight going to post, but it’s still hard to argue with revised antepost quotes of 9/4 about him for Champions Day.
Almeraq wasn’t the only Haggas-trained sprinter to impress at the weekend as Extremely Zain looked right at home dropped back to six furlongs in the Listed Starman At Tally Ho Stud Garrowby Stakes at York.
Too good for some solid yardsticks in the division like Double Rush, Regional and Spycatcher, Extremely Zain impressed with the way he coped with the test of speed at York on the back of being campaigned over seven furlongs and this opens up a 6f route for him.
The Group 3 Bengough Stakes at Ascot on October 3 looks the obvious next step for him and if he passes that test, who knows, maybe he could be the latest Haggas Group 1 contender off his seemingly endless sprinting conveyor belt.
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Where I am with... Constitution Hill
I fully expected Constitution Hill to go up at least a few pounds after his fourth-placed finish in Saturday’s September Stakes but I must admit I didn’t think he’d be ruled out of 0-105 handicaps (where you can run if you’re rated as high as 107).
This further dilutes Nicky Henderson’s options heading into the autumn and it’s not really a surprise to hear him say they’ve been rated out of handicaps now, although he could still run in the November Handicap at Doncaster off his new rating – something I’d be seriously considering.
It looks more likely he’ll be looking at another Group 3 and that brings races like the Cumberland Lodge at Ascot and the St. Simon Stakes at Newbury into play, both races over 1m4f in October.
The very nature of those races present a problem for Constitution Hill, though, as they are likely to be small-field affairs run off a moderate gallop, like Saturday’s contest was, and in such scenarios he’ll likely be vulnerable against Flat horses with a sharper change of gear.
That’s why the valuable big-field heritage handicaps appeal, as he would probably get a perfect tempo to run at in those races and, combined with likely soft ground at Doncaster in November, this could be the one ideal race left for him this year.
It would certainly see the turf season end with a bang, but if he misses Town Moor in favour of a small-field Group 3 I wouldn't be surprised if it is 2027 until the stars align for Constitution Hill again in a Flat race.
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