Plenty of quality races to get stuck into across the cards at Sandown and Aintree this weekend and our man has three fresh fancies.
Value Bet tips: Saturday December 3
1pt win Playful Saint in 2.20 Sandown at 7/1 (General)
1pt win Kap Auteuil in 2.40 Aintree at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Benson in 3.15 Aintree at 11/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Top-class edition, but no appealing play
Shishkin and Greaneteen have it between them in the Betfair Tingle Creek Chase according to the market, and it’s hard to take a contrarian view despite the inflated prices being dangled about some quality operators in opposition.
The closest I came to a bet in Saturday's feature was Gentleman De Mee, but we can just about pass up the double-figure odds about Willie Mullins’ horse, for all that it’s not hard to see him trading a good deal shorter than that on the exchanges if getting into a decent rhythm early on.
I’d be backing Greaneteen over Shishkin if the hand was forced, but thankfully that couldn’t be further from the truth and, cutting to the chase somewhat, it’s not going to be a huge punting day, personally.
Sticking with Sandown, there’s no shot in the four-runner Close Brothers Henry VIII Novices’ Chase, while nothing really quickens the pulse when it comes to taking on Harry Fry’s Revels Hill in the Winners Wear Cavani Menswear London National Handicap Chase.
I will, however, have a dart against the Fry-trained, Cheltenham Festival-winning Love Envoi on her seasonal reappearance in the Betfair Daily Rewards Handicap Hurdle.
Granted, she won her maiden first time out this weekend last year, but the way she really blossomed into the spring gives the impression she might not be fully revved up just yet, and I’m far from convinced she’s thrown in here from a mark of 139 regardless.
More fun and games for in-form Skelton
PLAYFUL SAINT, on the other hand, could have loads in hand from his current rating.
Dan Skelton’s French recruit showed a cracking attitude to win narrowly on his debut over here at Wetherby in March, edging out decent yardstick Albert’s Back, who was a close second again at the same venue in October from a mark of 128. Playful Saint finished with a nasty wound to his front foot that day too, so the effort surely wants marking up.
He also resumed in October, catching the eye in a big way with his effort in fourth behind Sonigino, who subsequently went off among the market leaders for the Greatwood at Cheltenham.
The lightly-raced Playful Saint looked badly in need of the outing, having been held up in last, made a promising-looking forward move before the turn in and eventually being looked after as his run flattened out to nothing.
The handicapper dropping him a pound to a mark of 125 looks far too hasty and, having skipped the Greatwood himself on account of the lively enough ground at Cheltenham, he looks to have his conditions here.
I’ve a bit of a fixation with Noble Yeats and was happy enough to take a chance on him at 50s for the King George, but that doesn’t necessarily make him at bet around the 7/1 mark for Aintree’s BoyleSports Many Clouds Chase this weekend.
Giving 1lb to Ahoy Senor and 4lb to both Dashel Drasher and Sounds Russian here won’t be easy, but it’s an open-looking renewal and you can give some sort of chance to all six runners. Here’s hoping Noble Yeats runs well and gives connections little option but to head to Kempton on Boxing Day.
The BoyleSports Becher Handicap Chase is about as competitive as they come and, having got Ashtown Lad and The Wolf on side at relatively big antepost prices, I’m not particularly inclined to have a third iron in the fire.
The one who looks potentially over-priced from an each-way perspective is course regular Didero Vallis, who ran well for a long way on his seasonal return at Exeter last month.
The handicapper has actually dropped him for that so he’s technically 2lb wrong on these terms (early-closing race), though you’d be hard pressed to argue he’s badly treated as he was a creditable sixth in this event last year off 10lb higher, and was third to stablemate Chambard off the same mark in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham in March.
If the Kap fits...
There are others to consider closely elsewhere on the card, starting with KAP AUTEUIL who has a better chance than his odds imply in the BoyleSports Daily Money Back 2nd Handicap Chase.
Still only seven, he’s won six of his 13 starts over fences to this point and although most of those came off much lower marks when going through the grades as a novice, he’s now only 2lb higher than when beating Galahad Quest in good style at Stratford in March.
He doesn’t stay three miles – that became fairly evident when sixth of seven on his first try at the longer trip at Haydock in the spring – so I’m happy to scrap the comeback effort at Fakenham when far too fresh in the early stages and again not getting home.
He obviously won’t have his own way out in front here, as the competition for the lead looks potentially quite fierce, but I don’t like backing horses who are going to get too far back around Aintree and hopefully James Bowen can get him settled in behind the real blazers in this line-up.
Stable switcher getting act together
Walking On Air could end up going off pretty short in the concluding BoyleSports Extra Places Daily Handicap but I’d rather back old favourite BENSON for in-form trainer Sandy Thomson at 10/1 or thereabouts.
He’s got a bit of a mind of his own but also has some quality handicap form to his name including a Listed win at Sandown on this corresponding weekend in 2020.
He went missing to some extent last season and has subsequently left the Richard Newland yard, but he’s made an encouraging start for new connections, looking rejuvenated with placed efforts at Carlisle and Haydock.
His fast-finishing effort was too little too late behind runaway winner Stainsby Girl a fortnight ago, but he’s obviously getting his act together again at the moment, and there’s no question he’s on a good mark when it all clicks into place.
The booking of Brian Hughes – yet to ride for the yard this season but 3-18 over the past five seasons – is another significant boost for this horse’s claims, while he very much shapes like he needs this two-and-a-half-mile trip these days too.
Published at 1600 GMT on 02/12/22
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