Following the drama of Friday night's conclusion, Ben Coley looks ahead to Saturday's third round in the Open Championship.
The Open betting tips: Round three two-balls
2pts Griffin and McIlroy to win their two-balls at 7/4 (William Hill)
2pts Rahm and Scheffler to win their two-balls at 19/10 (General)
1pt Griffin, McIlroy, Rahm and Scheffler four-fold at 7/1 (William Hill)
It seems the men's major championship season is going to bow out on a high after two days of drama and brilliance and the promise of better yet to come in the 154th Open Championship.
The golf itself has been gripping. Perhaps there's an argument that this red-hot summer has robbed us of a properly penal course and almost paved the way for the first sub-62 in men's major history, the sort of milestone you applaud while wincing, but conditions are never perfect. We know that by now.
The spectacle, however, has been close to it. We've had those low scores which do generate intrigue and the groundswell of support for Lucas Herbert at Birkdale was undeniable. We've had an unheralded first-round leader, Tommy Fleetwood rallying to the delight of his Southport fans, Rory McIlroy fighting his way to the weekend, Scottie Scheffler looming ominously along with a clutch of world-class players, and a second-round leader who has grit and talent but has never been in this position before.
And we've had Bryson DeChambeau, who produced two defiant rounds, ending with successive birdies on Friday night to move into second place. Or at least that's where he was when finishing his round. What followed was surreal: DeChambeau driven by an R&A official to the scene of his second shot at the fifth, to discuss whether he broke a rule which in effect says you can't do anything that might improve your lie.
After a long wait, much gesticulation from the player and stoicism from officials, DeChambeau received a two-shot penalty which was made official not by a statement, but by his name dropping down the leaderboard. Then he hinted that he wouldn't return to play the third round, yet counterintuitively went to the range to hit balls in near darkness, where he invited members of the media to share his snacks.
It was a wild end to the day which even included a 'What We Know So Far' story from The Athletic, the kind usually reserved for something far more serious than rule 8.1 of a sport which involves whacking a very small ball around a field about 280 times and seeing if that's good enough. And the tournament really hasn't even begun in earnest yet.
DeChambeau is a general 10/1 chance to win it and what's fascinating about that is he's four points shorter than Sam Burns, who is on the same score. Burns was about 20 points shorter pre-tournament and even that was much to do with the fact he'd not prepared ideally. DeChambeau of course was a much bigger price than he usually is because he'd missed the cut in three straight majors and has never been considered an Open champion, rightly or wrongly, because of the way he plays the game.
Who knows what to expect from him now, except to appear at the course and play. Despite suffering a penalty, DeChambeau undoubtedly enjoyed aspects of the drama and the chance to threaten his withdrawal. I consider the chances of him actually going through with that to be zero. What I'm less sure about is whether he'll sulk his way to 20th or go out and show everyone what he's made of and win. Somehow, the big gap in between those two outcomes seems unlikely, even though it isn't.
Returning to the price, the main reason he's been refactored to go shorter than Burns is his ability but there's a secondary point to keep in mind. Whatever you think of the ruling, DeChambeau had outscored Burns by two strokes over 36 holes. His golf has been better than everyone bar the leader, Lucas Herbert, and I must say that when he moved into second I thought he was firmly the man to beat. Now, I'm really not sure.
Followers of the pre-tournament preview have two contenders, Robert MacIntyre and Jon Rahm, though their short missed putts on 18 really stung. That means they're each four behind and in there with a chance, while Tyrrell Hatton from five back isn't quite out of it, though the sheer number of world-class players he'll have to pass makes it unlikely. Hatton is 33/1 and probably ought to be 50s.
Had the DeChambeau story not emerged to complicate things, and had perhaps Scheffler missed his par putt on the final hole, I'd have been keen to side with Cameron Young. He hits all the key trends and, like DeChambeau, has found that the condition of the course plays to his strengths. Young has been a habitual contender and whoever finishes ahead of him may well get their hands on the Claret Jug.
But for now, with Rahm having rallied despite a stone-cold putter, and MacIntyre seemingly thrilled with his position despite a frustratingly defensive approach so far, we'll let Saturday unfold and hope it leaves us with our position strengthened. This is wide-open and I've a feeling we're in for one of the great weekends in Open Championship history.
Best bets for today's two-balls
While all last night's drama was going on, a two-shot swing over the final two holes from the final group on the course denied us a 9/2 winning double, but dead-heat returns made it another profitable day on that front. We now revert to two-balls and among the factors to consider is that longer drivers were at a big advantage in round two. It seemed to me that some, including the leader, adjusted their strategy having seen what opportunities it could bring.
For the early birds then I like Min Woo Lee, Jose Ballester and perhaps even MJ Daffue at a nice price versus Eric Cole. The caveat there would be that while not a long hitter, Cole certainly benefits from wispy rough that is in the main not too penal, as driver is his weakness. Still, it's an interesting contrast in styles, Daffue considerably longer, and on Friday's evidence that's an advantage not reflected in odds of 6/4
I'll focus on the afternoon (it'll be the afternoon by the time the first pick plays his first approach shot, anyway) and begin with a lunchtime double: BEN GRIFFIN (1155 BST) and RORY MCILROY (1220).
There have been a handful of big names who've struggled on the greens, McIlroy among them, but Griffin's performance has rather gone unnoticed. He ranks fifth in strokes-gained tee-to-green so far but can't get anything to drop.
Just how useful it is to note that he's 19th in putting for the season who can say, as he's exclusively putted on much faster greens, but there's certainly scope for that club to behave itself today and he can take care of Hennie du Plessis if it does.
The South African is outside the top 80 in those tee-to-green stats and has driven the ball particularly poorly, so the classier player with the higher putting ceiling gets a confident vote.
So does McIlroy, who can gain revenge on Jacob Bridgeman, the man who beat him by a shot at Riviera back in February.
I'm sure that won't be on McIlroy's mind at all as he focuses on getting after this golf course. McIlroy leads the field off the tee so far and has massive scope to go low today, something he did at Portrush last year and at St Andrews in 2022.
Dating back to the last time the Open was held here at Birkdale, he's on a run of six third-round scores of 70 or less and can extend it against a rival surviving largely on his putter.
Heading further down the tee-sheet, odds against about JON RAHM (1435) beating Tommy Fleetwood is worth the risk.
I wouldn't have been in a mad rush to oppose the local favourite but Rahm has been exceptional from tee-to-green and I felt the market had these two the wrong way round pre-tournament. That remains the case after two rounds in which they've proven inseparable.
I've been impressed by Fleetwood, who wasn't at the races on Thursday but kept battling and was rewarded with three late birdies on Friday, but it probably should've been five to finish as his putter cooled.
That could bode well for today but I keep thinking about the third round at Hoylake three years ago, when it seemed everyone was with his group and he could never get going in a round of 71.
This isn't quite the same as he's buried in the pack rather than out last, but there's pressure on him and maybe we just saw that as his putter went missing late in the second round. Rahm's has been missing all week, of course, but he's the more decorated golfer with the superior Open record and shouldn't be weighed down by anything.
I suspect Herbert may handle the occasion better than Jackson Suber and considered him at odds-against, while Young makes sense but I do have plenty of respect for Ryan Gerard. He's a fine ball-striker whose short-game has shown up and shouldn't be underestimated.
And so I find myself liking the look of the Rahm-SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER (1445) double at a penny or two less than 2/1.
Scheffler has been imperious from tee-to-green as well and goes out with 2018 champion Francesco Molinari. There are 83 places between them in the ball-striking stats as Molinari rides an unusually sharp short-game and while his links form counts for something, it's hard to see him living with the world number one today.
Scheffler stormed through the pack during round three of the US Open last month and despite being four off the lead is just about favourite to win from here. I'll be surprised if his chances don't look better come the end of the round, a feeling which both underlines his credentials here, and is sufficient to avoid adding to the outright bets for now.
Posted at 07:20 BST on 18/07/26
More Open content
- Open Championship preview
- Ben Coley's specials tips
- Round one three-ball picks
- First-round leader preview
- Matt Cooper's Open diary
- Who creates chances in majors?
- Player-by-player guide to the field
- Royal Birkdale talking points
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