Bryson DeChambeau rates a value bet in the first-round leader market as our pre-tournament preview package ends with the most volatile market of all.
Golf betting tips: First-round leader
1pt Bryson DeChambeau to lead after round one at 66/1 (General)
1pt Justin Thomas to lead after round one at 66/1 (General)
1pt Brooks Koepka to lead after round one at 75/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Thomas Detry to lead after round one at 110/1 (Unibet)
0.5pt Aldrich Potgieter to lead after round one at 150/1 (Unibet)
One of the many things I love about the Open Championship is that it's where world-class golfers have to overcome forces beyond their control if they're to achieve greatness. That's somewhat true of all majors, but more so here. The Open demands that you embrace the randomness of the weather and the bounce and their inherent volatility, and somehow come out on top of the battle.
It's those world-class golfers who tend to do it somehow. In fact it's possible to argue that you're not a truly great golfer until you've earned a Claret Jug, though some would reasonably insist that Brooks Koepka's five majors entitle him to that moniker. Whatever the merits of that debate, you get the point. This is the ultimate test of qualities that cannot be measured by a launch monitor.
It stands to reason that the major which is most vulnerable to a strange result over 72 holes would be especially volatile over just 18, and that's undeniable when you look at the list of first-round leaders. In the last 15 years, Adam Hadwin, Andrew Landry and Michael Thompson represent the surprises from the US Open. Here, we had Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Haotong Li and Jacob Skov Olesen last year alone.
Daniel Brown led at Troon, Emiliano Grillo and Christo Lamprecht were part of a share of the lead at Hoylake, and even the run of good American golfers (plus Louis Oosthuizen) from 2015 to 2022 featured some surprises at the time. Cameron Young for instance was a debutant who had shot 76-77 the previous week; JB Holmes had been in dismal form and having led at Portrush with a round of 66, he ended with a round of 87.
I've increasingly been inclined to let this market go elsewhere but in the Open, where the prospects of landing a big winner are heightened, I have a handful of selections from a lengthy shortlist and we'll start with the one who is quite the opposite of a lesser-known: BRYSON DECHAMBEAU.
The case here largely comes down to the fact that there's absolutely no doubt DeChambeau is a better golfer than his price says. He was third-favourite for the Masters at about 10/1, remember, and while that followed successive LIV Golf wins, his form on that circuit reads 3-3-11 now. The 11th place came at Valderrama, which is the worst course imaginable for his game.
Now, the counterpoints are that links golf is equally unsuitable and that he's missed the cut in all three majors so far this year. The first is at least partially true and yet, he did play wonderfully for 10th place at Portrush where he was 144th after round one, Friday's 65 and Sunday's 64 both exceptional. That's his last Open experience and by far the most positive.
He is a habitual fast starter on the LIV circuit where he's led a remarkable four times since February, and he's led after round one of a major on three separate occasions before. So there's a lot to like, I think, despite concerns over sharpness, his major play, and how much Birkdale suits his game. Almost anywhere else in the world, 66s would look a no-brainer.
On that, Birkdale will probably find him out in the end, because his short-game isn't good enough and Sir Nick Faldo is right to question an absence of tactical thinking. However, could it be that DeChambeau, arguably with nothing to lose given how badly his majors have gone this year, attempts to attack this course and drive as many greens as he can?
That would be a boost for first-round leader backers and I can see it happening. And if he does attempt to strategise, to plot his way around, he has the ability to make that work too.
Ultimately, over 18 holes I want one of the five or six most talented players in the field on-side at bigger than 50/1, for all that I made the case for playing partner Tyrrell Hatton outshining him in my outright preview. That remains the expectation over four rounds, but over one the price gap is wider than it should be.
DeChambeau is out midway through the morning but to be frank there doesn't appear to be any kind of draw bias, with the wind down. I've not really factored tee-time into calculations as a consequence, but I do like the idea of having someone from the first few groups and much prefer THOMAS DETRY to the fairy-tale Matthew Baldwin story.
Baldwin is a course member who has plenty of links form so I can see why he'd be popular, but Detry is a considerably more capable player and he too knows how to handle this form of the game. He's spent a fair bit of time based in Cornwall down the years and the closest he's come to winning on the DP World Tour is in the Scottish Open, where he lost a play-off.
Detry is another who has been pinging the lids on the LIV Golf circuit and since 2024 he's been inside the top 10 after round one of a major three times in just seven attempts. That ought to stand him in good stead and with a large crowd following along he might be the one who sets the early target.
Another big-name early starter, JUSTIN THOMAS, has a surprisingly good record on day one of the Open which I'll tap into at the same price as DeChambeau.
Thomas's overall record in this isn't anything like as strong as we'd expect but four top-10s after the first round rates his best return from across the four majors. One of them came here in 2017 and he returns now having made a good recovery from injury, the highlight coming in the PGA where he made a Sunday run at the leaders.
Being able to hit less than driver should be a positive along with his exceptional short-game, the putter looking better than it has at times in the past, and he's another two-time major champion being dangled at a huge price.
BROOKS KOEPKA is the final big-name American I want to be on as one angle I've always liked is to side with players consistently starting well, and he's been first, second and sixth after the first round during the course of his last four starts.
Koepka led here in 2017, too, and has twice been third after the opening round of an Open, together with a couple of leads in the Masters and one in the PGA. He's also out late and with the forecast calm I wanted someone in the afternoon on-side, with his Scottish Open preparation considered better than Sam Burns' time off since the Travelers.
Selecting these three world-class players win-only is my preferred route as we have to acknowledge that dead-heats for first are possible, with any place returns likely to be chopped up by a bunched leaderboard. Place terms also very quite dramatically and while I'm sure some readers will select one or two names and back them each-way, I'd rather save on the place part and take my chances with a small outlay.
Take a chance on South African slugger
I've mentioned Skov Olesen and Lamprecht already and what's notable about that duo is that they'd both won the Amateur Championship on links courses, both somewhat close to the Open they were playing in. Skov Olesen had won it at Ballyliffin and went on to lead at Portrush, while Lamprecht won at Hillside, right next door to Birkdale, and led at Royal Liverpool.
Stuart Grehan and ALDRICH POTGIETER are the past champions in this field and there's a case for chancing both, Grehan having won the Amateur at Royal Liverpool just a month ago, but Potgieter is the one for me.
This powerhouse South African has two things in his favour beyond the fact his Amateur win came up the road at Lytham: he led after round one of the PGA Championship in May, and he played nicely when second in the Last-Chance Qualifier on Monday. He and Joe Dean, who won that 18-hole shootout, are the only two in this field who've had the chance to play Birkdale under tournament conditions already this week.
Potgieter is boom-or-bust and his short-game issues will probably catch him out in the end, but just as at Aronimink his raw talent could work over 18 holes given that potential edge he has on almost all of these. He has two first-round leads among his last 30 starts, one at the highest level but another in a good PGA Tour event, and is worth chancing.
His compatriot MJ Daffue would represent an even bigger surprise but he was second after round one of the US Open at Brookline, his only previous major start. That came while he was playing on the Korn Ferry Tour so there are some parallels as he's currently sailing through the HotelPlanner Tour, where he's won twice.
Daffue also went close on the DP World Tour in the spring and after coming through Final Qualifying, he talked about how much he enjoys links golf when the chance to play it comes along. That stuck with me and while far from alone, given that he's at the top of his game and can putt extremely well at times, he's among the more appealing of the genuine outsiders along with Grehan, who will carry some support at 300/1.
So was Joakim Lagergren on his long-awaited Open debut.
The Swede has a phenomenal Dunhill Links record, won by the sea in Sicily, finished second in a windswept KLM Open last year, and has also been second in Doha, where so many Open contenders have thrived down the years.
In other words, hardened DP World Tour fans have been waiting a long time to see how he can handle this and while his form has been typically in-and-out of late, he has that same putting potential and a streaky quality. I'm just not sure he's quite up to it and will aim for that sweet spot of quality golfers capable of surprising a few despite having pedigree at this level. DeChambeau would count, I think.
Posted at 07:20 BST on 15/07/26
More Open content
- Open Championship preview
- Ben Coley's specials tips
- Round one three-ball picks
- Matt Cooper's Open diary
- Who creates chances in majors?
- Player-by-player guide to the field
- Royal Birkdale talking points
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.