xG World Cup review: Day 12 scorelines according to expected goals

• Day 11 xG verdict: All on Alexis and Alvarez

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

• We rank every scoreline by comparing it against the range of possible scorelines that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created. The higher this ranks on a scale of 0-100 the closer it reflects the balance of chances created or the 'fairer' the scoreline is.

Japan 2-1 Spain

• Infogol xG: 0.95 - 1.14
• Fairness rating: 73.72
• Scorers: Doan 48', Tanaka 51' | Morata 11'

Japan produced a stunning comeback to beat Spain 2-1 and secure top spot in World Cup Group E.

Spain had looked in total control at half-time after taking the lead through Alvaro Morata’s early header.

Japan, though, turned things around in the space of five minutes at the start of the second half when substitute Ritsu Doan equalised before Ao Tanaka netted another – which was allowed to stand following a lengthy VAR review after the ball had appeared to have gone out of play.

Costa Rica 2-4 Germany

• Infogol xG: 2.23 - 6.52
• Fairness rating: 88.35
• Scorers: Tejeda 58', Vargas 70' | Gnabry 10', Havertz 73' 85', Fullkrug 90+1

Germany crashed out of the group stage of the World Cup for the second time in succession despite a 4-2 victory against Costa Rica.

Following a shock defeat to Japan and a scrappy draw against Spain, the four-time world champions knew only victory at Qatar’s Al Bayt Stadium on Thursday night – and failure by Japan to beat Spain in Group E’s other fixture – would keep their dreams alive.

But although Germany came from behind to win, with Chelsea’s Kai Havertz scoring a quickfire double, Japan’s 2-1 comeback victory against Spain saw Hansi Flick’s side heading for the exit.

Germany had more than enough scoring opportunities to hammer their opponents, too, recording a massive 6.52 xG.

Costa Rica finish bottom of the group, with Japan and Spain booking their spots in the next round.

Croatia 0-0 Belgium

• Infogol xG: 0.71 - 3.22
• Fairness rating: 59.94

Belgium bowed out of the World Cup after falling short in a goalless draw with Croatia in their final group game at the Ahmad Bin Ali Stadium.

Substitute Romelu Lukaku missed opportunities equating to 1.97 xG in the game, with Belgium needing to win to progress, while the point was enough for Croatia, who finished second in Group F behind winners Morocco.

Our calculations suggest there was just a 6% chance of Lukaku not scoring from the chances presented to him.

Belgium, number two in FIFA’s world rankings, had failed to impress in their opening two group games – a 1-0 win against Canada and a 2-0 defeat to Morocco – and their latest setback could signal the end of an era for Roberto Martinez’s ‘golden generation’.

Canada 1-2 Morocco

• Infogol xG: 0.92 - 0.50
• Fairness rating: 67.71
• Scorers: Aguerd (og) 40' | Ziyech 4', En Nesyri 23'

Morocco advanced to the last 16 of the World Cup after closing out a 2-1 win over Canada at the Al Thumama Stadium to finish top of Group F.

Canada, who had already been eliminated, fell behind early on thanks to a major error by goalkeeper Milan Borjan to gift Hakim Ziyech the opener.

Youssef En-Nesyri thumped past Borjan to extend their first-half advantage, but Morocco allowed Canada to stay in it when Nayef Aguerd deflected in an own goal before the break.

The Atlas Lions are into the knockout stages for the first time in 36 years, and now face a wait to find out their last-16 opponents, who will be the Group E runners-up.

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