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Morocco celebrate victory over Belgium

World Cup 2022: Fixtures to follow in the Round of 16 matches

By Alex Keble
Football
Tue December 06, 2022 · 3y ago

Alex Keble shines his tactical spotlight on four intriguing match-ups from across the World Cup's round of 16 fixtures.

Resolute Morocco a problem for Spain

  • Morocco v Spain
  • ITV: Tuesday, 15:00 GMT

Luis Enrique would have relished a tougher second-round draw.

Spain’s total dominance of possession in the group stages did not work to their advantage, forcing them into a slower ‘tiki-taka’-infused version of themselves and moving them away from the verticality that Enrique has worked so hard to bring to the national setup.

Spain don’t want to face an ultra-deep defence like Japan, who held 18% possession in their win, or like Morocco – a very well-drilled counter-attacking outfit.

Their Japan performance showed Spain remain too blunt in attack (their front three is lower on quality than it has been at any point since 2010) and have a tendency to become withdrawn when the going gets tough. Consequently the fierceness of Morocco’s compact 4-5-1, which boldly tackles hard in the middle third of the pitch, is likely to unsettle Spain for periods of this match.

That could lead to a big problem down Spain’s left, where 33-year-old Jordi Alba isn’t the player he was – and will often find himself caught too high up the pitch.

Almost all of Morocco’s attacks have come down this side as Hakim Ziyech moves infield to allow Achraf Hamiki to overlap; it is a potentially devastating duo that will push Alba to his limits and, after periods of prosaic Spain possession, can stun the favourites with their decisiveness.

Don't discount stubborn Socceroos

  • Argentina v Australia
  • BBC: Saturday, 19:00 GMT

This one has the hallmarks of a shock result.

On paper Argentina will breeze past Australia much in the way France did in their 4-1 win in the Group D opener, but the French fell one behind in that contest and Australia have sharpened up significantly since then. Instead, what we are more likely to see is a stubborn and persistent Australian defence focusing in on Lionel Messi and creating a tense, low-scoring match.

Australia are arguably the most defensive team left in the tournament. Their average possession was the fifth lowest in the group stages (37%) while Argentina’s was the second highest (66.7%), and there is no reason to expect these numbers to change much.

The Socceroos will sit in their compressed midblock 4-4-2, sitting off the Argentine centre-backs and banking on defending their own third heroically. They have made more clearances (94) than anyone else at this tournament and rank fourth for most opposition touches in their defensive third (569).

It won’t be pretty, and of course it could mean Argentina simply overwhelm them.

But Lionel Scaloni’s side have looked tense and anxious, and if Australia hold out for long enough – as well as double up on Messi, the only major threat so far – then it is possible things will grind to a halt.

Argentina are playing like individuals, not a team, improvising their attacking moves each time they come forward. That is not a good way to approach such a well-organised defensive unit.

Passive Poland have no answer for Mbappe

  • France v Poland
  • BBC: Sunday, 15:00 GMT

Poland are incredibly lucky to have made it this far and they surely will fall on Sunday, meaning France likely facing England with neither nation really being tested yet at Qatar 2022.

Poland scraped through their group thanks to a tedious 0-0 draw with Mexico and a 2-0 win over Saudi Arabia in which they held just 36% possession and conceded 2.25 xG.

Robert Lewandowski hasn’t shown up and there is nothing in their timid, incoherent 4-4-2 to suggest that’s going to magically change before they face France, even if the French are more vulnerable than they have looked so far.

In the 4-1 win over Australia they were regularly caught in the transition through the middle of the park, an on-going problem area for Didier Deschamps, although the Polish tactical approach is too direct, wing-focused, and limp to attack this weakness.

Instead, France will dominate the ball and look to shift it out to Kylian Mbappe as often as possible.

His one-twos with Theo Hernandez were a big feature of France’s 2-1 win over Denmark, and after right-back Matty Cash struggled to contain Julian Alvarez last time out he is unlikely to be able to cope with Mbappe.

Their battle is only going one way.

Composed England shouldn't fear Senegal

  • England v Senegal
  • ITV: Sunday, 19:00 GMT

Among supporters and the media there is nervousness around this fixture and a general assumption that Senegal, as AFCON champions, may be underestimated.

But that would probably only be true if Sadio Mane was fit to play, because without him there is very little attacking threat from this powerful and imposing Senegal side outside of set-pieces, which account for three of their five goals so far. Set-pieces happen to be a key strength of Gareth Southgate’s England.

More importantly, England are not intimidated by this kind of game under Southgate, who has never lost unexpectedly in a tournament. With Jude Bellingham now in the side, there is even greater command of possession and slow, steady, composed football; England might worry their fans by how boring they can be, but it is a deliberate strategy of the sort that will neutralise Senegal.

Marcus Rashford is widely expected to start for England and this could be just what’s needed: power and directness in the dribble is the best way to face Senegal, whose blockade will not be pulled apart easily by the more intricate work of Phil Foden or Harry Kane.

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