Football betting tips: Premier League
Joe Townsend
2pts e.w Morgan Rogers top scorer at 66/1 (General 1/4 odds 1-4)
2pts e.w Bryan Mbeumo top scorer at 66/1 (General 1/4 odds 1-4)
1pt e.w Matheus Cunha at 100/1 (General 1/4 odds 1-4)
1pt e.w Phil Foden at 150/1 (General 1/4 odds 1-4)
Tom Carnduff
1.5pts e.w. Joao Pedro to be top scorer at 16/1 (General 1/4, 1-4)
Jimmy 'The Punt'
1pt e.w. Dominic Calvert-Lewin to be top scorer at 50/1 (General 1/4, 1-4)
Premier League top scorer odds (via Sky Bet)
Each-way: 1/4 odds, four places
- Erling Haaland (Man City) - 4/6
- Alexander Isak (Liverpool) - 8/1
- Igor Thiago (Brentford) - 10/1
- Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) - 14/1
- Joao Pedro (Chelsea) - 16/1
- Viktor Gyokeres (Arsenal) - 20/1
- Benjamin Sesko (Man Utd) - 20/1
- Antoine Semenyo (Man City) - 25/1
- Dominic Solanke (Tottenham) - 33/1
- 40/1 bar
There is an assumption about Erling Haaland being the inevitable winner of the Premier League’s Golden Boot but only in 2024/25 did he finish third with 22 goals, trailing winner Mohamed Salah (29) and Alexander Isak (23).
At such a short price he is certainly worth opposing but I can find reasons not to like many of the names who come next in the betting, including injury records, questions over game time and a lack of long-term evidence that they can score goals regularly in England’s top flight.
It is the bigger prices that draw me in, especially given the place money on offer for those.
Morgan Rogers (Chelsea) - 66/1
MORGAN ROGERS is a player I really fancy to have another brilliant season.
Having backed him to provide the most assists in the Premier League at 25/1, his 66/1 price to finish as TOP GOALSCORER is also of interest for very similar reasons.
Chelsea have no European football and a superb new manager in Xabi Alonso, giving them a great chance of an excellent top-flight campaign.
Rogers has scored 14 goals in all competitions in each of the last two campaigns for Aston Villa (18 league goals in total), and when utilised more centrally has been especially potent.
The Blues have paid £117m for him to provide goal contributions and will expect him to improve on already impressive numbers; as do I.
Bryan Mbuemo - 66/1, Matheus Cunha - 100/1 (both Man Utd)
BRYAN MBEUMO (66/1) spent plenty of time through the middle last season and finished the campaign with 11 league goals. MATHEUS CUNHA (100/1) rarely played as Manchester United's main centre forward but still managed to find the net 10 times in the Premier League.
Cunha showed his value as a central striker for Brazil at the World Cup, and his ability to play in all four positions across the forward line should mean he continues to get plenty of minutes.
Both players were signed last summer after strong seasons elsewhere in the top flight, scoring 20 and 15 goals for Brentford and Wolves respectively in 24/25.
They are interesting propositions each-way and certainly offer much better value than another 2025 arrival Benjamin Sesko, who is 22/1 despite struggling both with injuries and to gain a regular starting place under Michael Carrick; in fairness he did still manage 11 league goals.
With CUNHA's price so much bigger he is backed although MBEUMO is the more compelling proposition given his better goalscoring record, greater likelihood to play up front and the fact he was on the end of more xG (12.2) than any other United player last term.
Marcus Rashford's return to Old Trafford also adds an interesting dynamic should he remain at the club beyond the summer transfer window, though at the moment it is difficult to look too far ahead with that aspect of the United XI.
Phil Foden (Man City) - 150/1
PHIL FODEN is backed at a 150/1 price that would have seemed fanciful two years ago.
The Manchester City attacking midfielder scored 27 goals (19 in the league) in 2023/24 and was named PFA Player of the Year but has struggled badly since, culminating in him missing out on England’s World Cup squad.
There have been encouraging signs recently though.
A new contract, a first summer break since 2023, a change in manager at The Etihad and a refresh of the squad may have just done the 27-year-old the world of good as he has looked revitalised. All he needs now is another new haircut and this quickly becomes a banker.
It does require a major revival, but we are talking about a world-class player. It’s also important to note that during his two fallow years Foden has still managed 14 league goals and 23 in total, so hasn't exactly forgotten how to score.
Antoine Semenyo (28/1) was initially included but his 50/1 top price and 35/1 general quotes - surprisingly big for a player who finished third in last season’s charts - have now disappeared.
He ended 25/26 with 17 league goals, up from 11 the season prior and eight in 23/24. With those 17 goals coming from 11.2 xG and without a big price I don't want to guess at his ability to overperform the data again, especially when Enzo Maresca may use him differently.
Joao Pedro (Chelsea) - 16/1
In all honesty there's not a great deal which appeals in the Premier League top goalscorer market for me this season. That said, JOAO PEDRO is the one I do like at a decent 16/1.
Chelsea should go well this season under Xabi Alonso's guidance. Sure, we've had that feeling about them over the past few seasons but this time around really does feel different with a squad built to suit his style.
New players have arrived yet Pedro is the one to target as he should enjoy plenty of minutes leading the line, even with Danny Welbeck recruited from Brighton.
In what was a poor campaign by Chelsea's standards last time out, he still netted 20 in 50 appearances across all competitions - 15 of those coming in 35 Premier League outings.
And he's seemingly carried that form into pre-season, with braces scored in wins over AC Milan and Real Sociedad in the last couple of weeks.
He may not take penalties as Cole Palmer is likely to keep that responsibility but Pedro should still see plenty of opportunities from open play. It certainly helps with Palmer and Morgan Rogers operating behind/alongside him.
An average of 18.2 goals is needed to place in this market based on the past five years. Pedro should certainly see the opportunities to do just that as a starting striker in a team which should finish in the top four.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds) - 50/1
I fancy Leeds to go well in the Premier League this season, touting them for the top half and beyond here.
The foundations were laid last term and they’ve made substantial improvements in key areas.
The additions of Harry Wilson and James Trafford will help Daniel Farke’s side bridge the five point gap to break into the top half, but if they are going to improve on last season's points tally of 47 points, DOMINIC CALVERT-LEWIN’s form will be key.
Keeping fit is always the issue with DCL but as he showed last season, he will score goals if he can put together a run of games.
Calvert-Lewin scored 14 league goals in 25/26, the joint-fifth most in the division, with a goals per 90 of 0.46.
Crucially, he started 30 games, his highest total since the 20/21 campaign where he scored 16 goals for Everton to finish as fifth top goalscorer.
Leeds’ frontman racked up the third highest expected-goals (xG) last season (15.8) behind only Igor Thiago and Haaland.
He’s hit the ground running in pre-season, netting three goals, and is expected to continue on spot-kick duty going into the new season, which is a bonus.
Odds correct at 12:30 BST (17/08/26)
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