Morocco enter their first ever World Cup quarter-final on Saturday, taking on Portugal for the right to make it to the last four. Jake Osgathorpe selects a best bet.
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Football betting tips: Morocco v Portugal
1.5pts Portugal to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 6/5 (General)
As discussed on the Sporting Life quarter-final podcast, my issue with Portugal pre-tournament was always Cristiano Ronaldo's inclusion in the starting XI.
I said pre-tournament in out outright video preview that playing with Ronaldo is effectively like playing with 10-men, so it was pleasantly surprising to see them bench CR7 in favour of the teams chances, even if it was a catalyst to down the main bet against Switzerland.
Goncalo Ramos was Ronaldo's replacement in the team and he bagged a hat-trick, but the improvement was in the whole team, it was like a weight had been lifted off their shoulders, that they didn't have to pander to Ronaldo's needs, and ultimately it made them more of a TEAM.
The scoreline was emphatic, and it was their best attacking display of the tournament to date, and while it's tough not to get too carried away about their potential ceiling minus Ronaldo, it was only one game, and they need to back up that stellar display here.
They now face the conquerors of their Iberian neighbors Spain, with Morocco making it to the World Cup quarter-finals for the first time in their history.
The Atlas Lions success in Qatar has been purely built on being difficult to beat. They have allowed just 1.15 xGA per game across four contests (plus one extra time), conceding just three 'big chances' (0.35 xG+) on their way to keeping three clean sheets.
They have proven a tough nut to crack so far, but their attacking process leaves a lot to be desired, having generated an average of 0.74 xGF per game. Their shot choice has been poor too, averaging 0.09 xG per shot.
All of this means I don't expect the Moroccans to cause Portugal too many issues from an attacking standpoint, making the main question; can Portugal break down the north Africans?
I think the answer to that is yes, and for a few reasons.
Portugal minus Ronaldo are a much more dynamic and free-flowing attacking team who play with more pace and incisiveness in their passes, while also having the ability to mix it up and go more direct. That is something Spain failed to do against Morocco, they were too slow and aimless in possession to cause real issues.
The second reason is the emotional and physical fatigue of the Moroccans. The ecstasy and relief of doing something their nation has never done before could be caught up in their minds, a kind of 'we've achieved our goal', that could cloud see them not hit the same heights, while physically, they will likely be drained after having chased Spain for 120 minutes. They have also possessed the ball 41% of the time at Qatar, which could catch up with them.
So, I see a buoyed Portugal side doing enough to score in ninety minutes, and one may be enough, so backing PORTUGAL TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS appeals here.
Morocco won't be blown out here, they have shown just how well-organised they are defensively and that will remain the case, though the feeling is they won't have enough in attack to create chances.
Morocco v Portugal best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Portugal to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 6/5 (General)
Score prediction: Morocco 0-1 Portugal (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Odds correct at 1715 GMT (07/12/22)
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