Football betting tips: Play-offs
2pts Over 2.5 goals at 11/10 (bet365)
Middlesbrough host Southampton in the first leg of their Championship play-off semi-final.
Wait a minute, that cannot be right. Middlesbrough host Southampton, surely Boro didn’t finish below the Saints?
Southampton were 21st with 12 points from 13 games when Will Still was sacked at the start of November. Boro were second under Rob Edwards at the time.
It feels like a lifetime ago.
Edwards left for Wolves by the end of the month but his replacement and current manager at the Riverside improved the side.
Kim Hellberg’s first game was against Derby at the end of November, Boro won that and the three after.
They hit a rough patch over the festive period going four without a win (L3) but then won their next six in the league and only lost one of 11 from January 4 to March 8. That defeat came at eventual champions Coventry.
So, heading into the final 10 games, Boro were second on 69 points, they’d only lost seven games all season and were four points ahead of Ipswich and 16 ahead of Southampton.
This is where their form took a nosedive.
Boro only won two of those remaining 10, taking 11 points in total, drawing half and losing the rest. Those victories came against Sheffield Wednesday and a very poor Watford.
Southampton went unbeaten over the same sample (W8 D2) beating Coventry, Norwich, Wrexham and Derby in the league.
They also beat Premier League leaders Arsenal to reach an FA Cup semi-final and went within 10 minutes of doing the same to Manchester City at Wembley. The experience in the latter could prove to be pivotal.
Defeat by Pep Guardiola’s side was Saints first in 21 games and they haven’t lost in the two games since, scoring five times.
So, Tonda Eckart’s side are probably England’s form team.
Boro, on the other hand, have almost finished the season as badly as Southampton started it. Almost.
The Teessiders actually ended four points behind Ipswich and behind Saints on goal-difference in the end.
So, where do Middlesbrough go from here ahead of the first leg of this Championship play-off semi-final?
A spine-tingling promotional video is probably a good place to start.
I mean cop for that - I’m inspired. “We Shall Be - our town motto. Defiance. Pride. Belief.”
Peppering the same social platforms with successes of yesteryear is another good move in my book.
Beating the Invincibles to reach the Carling Cup final. Marco Branca, Mikkel Beck, Bolo Zenden, Craig Hignett and Franck Queudrue. The time they defeated Liverpool to reach the Coca-Cola Cup final. Paul Merson in a big hat.
It’s all good stuff.
The hosts have almost sold 30,000 tickets for this game. Imagine the noise they are going to make. Come 12:30 on Saturday afternoon, it might even be enough to drown out the memory of the capitulation at the end of the season.
Results aside though, Hellberg’s team were as good as ever.
Across those 10 games, they won the expected goals (xG) battle in all 10 games scoring 14 times from an xG of 22.3 and conceding 12 times from an expected goals against (xGA) of 11.42
They’ve scored 10 times in their last four games but have only kept one clean sheet in their last seven and that came against Wednesday.
At the 11/10 available, OVER 2.5 GOALS is the bet.
It bucks the usual play-off semi-final first leg-trends. All the usual clichés apply. Tight, cagey and low-margin.
But this is a battle between the second and fourth highest scorers in the league and Southampton conceded 1.2 goals a game, Boro 1.02.
Odds correct at 16:00 BST (06/05/26)
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