Football betting tips: Super Sunday
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
1pt Arsenal +0.5 Asian handicap at 41/40 (bet365)
1pt Gabriel Magalhaes to score anytime at 11/1 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)
Joe Townsend
1pt Under 1.5 goals at 13/5 (Paddy Power)
0.5pt William Saliba to score anytime at 30/1 (BetVictor)
0.5pt Saliba to score first at 80/1 (BetVictor)
1pt Antoine Semenyo 2+ fouls committed at 2/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
Arsenal were 25/1 to not win a major trophy and a remarkable 17/2 for the quadruple less than a month ago.
At the time, they had lost just three times all season. They've since lost three successive domestic games - beaten in the Carabao Cup final by Manchester City, knocked out of the FA Cup in the quarter-finals by Southampton and turned over at home by Bournemouth in the Premier League.
They did at least limp past Sporting in the Champions League on Wednesday, but
Thus the quadruple has shrunk to a double. It wasn’t too long ago it felt like they had a historic trophy haul in the palm of their hand and I suppose that’s why it’s easy to feel pessimistic. Look what you could have won…
And now they’re now 2/1 not to win a major trophy.
I bet there’s a few squeaky bums in North London but strip it back and they’re still six points clear in the league and in the Champions League semi-final, on the favourable side of the draw may I add.
Across the two legs with Sporting, it felt like the Gunners returned to their boring, resilient best.
One goal scored across the 180 minutes, two clean sheets, a combined expected-goals (xG) of 2.58 and a combined expected-goals against (xGA) of 1.26.
Classic Arteta but it is just what his side needed to do to snap themselves out of this spiral and I expect a similar tactical play at the Etihad on Sunday.
The Gunners games with the big boys are often low margin, low scoring and low entertainment.
The reverse ended 1-1, Arsenal won 1-0 at Old Trafford, Everton and Brighton. They drew 1-1 at Chelsea and Brentford, drew 0-0 at home to Liverpool and lost 1-0 at Anfield conceding in the dying moments.
It’s almost enough to make you pull the trigger on the 10/11 about unders but I wouldn’t want to cheer on a lack of goals here and at 14/5, I don’t think there’s any value in the draw.
That leaves a tentative 1pt play on Arsenal +0.5 Asian handicap at a smidge over even money. It's the same as backing win-or-draw double chance but at slightly bigger odds.
In the league, Arsenal are unbeaten against City in their last five head-to-heads, drawing their last three games at the Etihad.
Don’t forget, a point would do Arsenal where-as City could do with a win really.
Pep Guardiola’s not exactly the type to set his stall out for a draw either, Arteta on the other hand…
And if the Cityzens come out swinging, the Gunners could have some joy on the counter attack.
Given the dynamic of this one, it is easy to understand the hosts' odds on price to win, although it is worth noting they were 9/4 outsiders when the sides met in the League Cup final at Wembley - albeit they won that game comfortably.
Pep’s men had a wobble in mid-March. In classic Pep fashion he overthought the Champions League clash with Real Madrid but since that second leg, City have beaten the Gunners, Liverpool and Chelsea by an aggregate scoreline of 9-0.
So, they might have hit top gear at the perfect time.
The Gunners price as outsiders has also inflated their players prices in the ANYTIME GOALSCORER market and at 11/1, GABRIEL MAGALHAES is a couple of points too big.
Arsenal’s main set-piece threat has a career goals per 90 average of 0.10, he’s scored three times this season and netted in his side's last trip to the Etihad.
It will come as no surprise to see Arteta’s side top the set piece charts for goals (19) but almost a third of the goals City have conceded in the league this season have come from dead-balls (9/28).
Joe Townsend
I'll avoid regurgitating what Jimmy has already so eloquently expressed and simply back UNDER 1.5 GOALS at 13/5.
Other than the odd exception Arteta has tended to hunker down in this fixture, a tactic Guardiola surprisingly imitated in the reverse encounter only for a last gasp Gabriel Martinelli goal to deny City all three points - and under 1.5 goals backers a winner.
That selection has paid in four of their last 13 meetings, with two exceptions seeing stoppage-time equalisers; arguably this would've been a winner at Wembley last month had David Raya started for Arsenal rather than Kepa.
I was tempted by the 10/1 about no goalscorer but instead will back WILLIAM SALIBA TO SCORE ANYTIME at 30/1 and TO SCORE FIRST at 80/1.
He's hardly prolific but having backed him at 14/1 at home to Chelsea in March partly on the basis of him looking dangerous in the match prior with a solitary attempt, I'll replicate that angle for a match that may very well be settled by a set-piece goal.
Only a last ditch block in the six-yard box denied the France defender against Sporting on Wednesday.
Finally ANTOINE SEMENYO 2+ FOULS COMMITTED makes the staking plan.
The Manchester City forward is averaging 1.7 per 90 in the Premier League this season and in 16 starts for City has made this line seven times, committing 26 fouls in total.
This feels like a contest where there'll be scrappy and tactical fouls aplenty, and given that City's second-most prolific fouler Nico O'Reilly (1.4 fouls per 90) is priced at 5/4 for this bet, the 2/1 about Semenyo represents a real bit of value.
Odds correct at 10:30 BST (17/4/26)
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