Football betting tips: EFL 26/27 outright
Championship
2pts e.w. Valentin 'Taty' Castellanos to be top scorer at 12/1 (General 1/4, 1-4)
League One
1.5pts e.w. Louie Barry to be top scorer at 16/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Betvictor 1/4, 1-4)
1pt e.w. Kasey Palmer to be top scorer at 100/1 (General 1/4, 1-4)
League Two
2pts e.w. Kabongo Tshimanga to be top scorer at 12/1 (General 1/4, 1-4)
1pt e.w. Ellis Harrison to be top scorer at 50/1 (General 1/4, 1-4)
Acca
3pts N Forest top half finish (PL), Norwich to finish top 8 (CH), Luton to finish top 6 (L1) and Grimsby to finish top 7 (L2) at 18/1 (bet365, William Hill)
Welcome back. After a hectic league season followed by the biggest World Cup ever, the new domestic season is right around the corner. It feels as though the months have gone extremely fast since the last campaign ended, and it's already time to make outright bets for the new season.
The 25/26 outright column delivered +18.1pts profit, with top-six finishes from Aston Villa in the Premier League and Coventry in the Championship alongside Arsenal finishing runners-up in the Carabao Cup doing the heavy lifting, backing up a +26.5pt outright column in 24/25.
Hopefully we can deliver a third straight season of profit with these outrights, though my approach to this mainly EFL-focused piece has been more speculative, with big-priced goalscorers appealing over short price 'locks'.
Those shorties are still included, but whereas in recent seasons I'd be tempted to back them as singles, this season I'm taking the acca at a bigger price, with less outlay over a nine-month period and the potential to win the same amount should they all come in.
Anyway onto the bets.
Premier League
While there is a separate Premier League outright coming, I have to include NOTTINGHAM FOREST TOP-HALF FINISH in this column as part of a four-fold across-the-leagues acca.
Forest are a general 13/8 to finish in the top 10 in the top flight, a price I think is massive for a number of reasons, the main one being the appointment of Oliver Glasner.
Fresh from winning the Europa Conference League with Crystal Palace, and the FA Cup the season before that, Glasner is one of the best managers in the division and it's a huge coup for Forest to get him after his departure from the Eagles.
He immediately improves their chances of a good season, as does the fact they don't have European football to contend with this time. Forest were in a relegation battle for most of the season, ultimately surviving with games to spare and reaching the semi-finals of the Europa League.
That shows how good the squad is at the City Ground, and while Elliott Anderson has departed for big money, the majority of the team is intact - a team that finished seventh in 24/25 under Nuno Espirto Santo. They have brought in a very good midfielder in Xaver Schlager as part of the midfield revamp and will no doubt do more business too.
One final really big advantage for this bet is that Forest's main competition for top half spots are all playing in Europe this season. Brighton, Sunderland, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace are all sides who will be expected to be in the top 10 mix, but all have to juggle midweek-weekend football on the back of a World Cup, which won't be easy at all, especially given most aren't used to European adventures.
All in all, I really like Forest's chances of a good season, and, come Premier League outright and 1-20 time, I may even tip them to finish higher still.
Championship
West Ham, led by the best manager in the second tier Nuno Espirito Santo, are a very, very short price to win the title this season at a general 7/4. While I think they will prove to be the best team over the course of the campaign, the uncertainty around their squad's comings and goings means I won't be getting involved at that price.
It feels as though they could be a slow burner before steamrolling through the division, and if was to get them onside, I'd probably take the 18/1 on West Ham +0 in the handicap market. I think if they win this league it won't be close.
Value in Castellanos
But the 12/1 price about their starting striker (hopefully) VALENTIN (TATY) CASTELLANOS TO BE TOP SCORER makes plenty of appeal, with him impressing after joining in January in the Premier League last season.
Hammers captain Jarrod Bowen heads the betting at 6/1 which makes some sense given he is the class act and will be on penalties, but for the starting striker to double the price doesn't seem right.
After joining the Hammers, the Argentine was the top scorer at the club, netting six times, double what Bowen managed in the same time frame. He racked up 5.8 xG (0.37 per 90) compared to Bowen's 2.9 xG (0.16) and took 50 shots (3.2) to Bowen's 31 (1.7).
The point here being that Castellanos was the man getting on the end of more and better chances, with it being Bowen setting them up for the most part as Nuno clearly wanted his star man to play creator. In the 19 league games after the turn of the year, Bowen registered a whopping 10 assists and created 32 chances for teammates. Compare that to the first 19 games where he managed one assist an created only 13 chances and it's clear he changed roles.
Hopefully that role change remains the same this time around and means we are on the main goal-getter for the title favourites, and one who has previous of racking up competitive goal tallies.
Castellanos started catching the eye in the MLS with New York City where he top-scored in 2021 with 22 goals and was on track to beat that in 2022 having scored 13 in 17 before La Liga side Girona snapped him up. He netted 13 times in the Spanish top flight, finishing tied for eighth in the top scorer charts that season.
A move to Serie A followed with Lazio and after a slow 23/24 season he made an impact in 24/25, scoring 10 league goals in 29 games and adding a further four in the Europa League. The potential is there. Since 2020 he's averaged 0.51 xG per 90 having played across Europe's top leagues, so rates as a striker to be feared by opposing defenders in the Championship, and one to get onside from a betting perspective.
Canaries to fly
A little further down the outright betting are NORWICH, who finished last season emphatically under manager Philippe Clement. The Canaries were one of the best teams in the league after he took charge, and their summer business suggests that will again be the case.
Having taken over a Norwich side who were second bottom of the league having lost 10 of their opening 15 games, Clement oversaw a dramatic turnaround, with the Canaries accumulating the fifth most points after his arrival and finishing with a real flourish by winning 10 of their final 16 matches, ranking as the sixth best team on expected points over that period too.
Process-wise they averaged 1.55 xGF and 1.11 xGA per game which is a play-off contending level and they should only improve for a full summer under Clement.
They had a bit of a summer clear out, getting rid of the aging Shane Duffy, Jeffrey Schlupp and Emiliano Marcondes, but have replaced well with Andre Brooks and Sam Field to bolster midfield options while young Brazilian centre-back Bruno Alves is highly thought of as he joins on-loan from Cruzeiro.
It would be a surprise were the Canaries not in the play-off mix, and at even money, they look value for a TOP-EIGHT FINISH in the second tier so are included in our acca.
League One
League One has a very heavy favourite in the form of Leicester City, and while it wouldn't be a surprise to see Russell Martin lead the Foxes back to the Championship given the signings they've made, I don't want to be betting on them at the price.
My club, Sheffield Wednesday, have endured a horrific few seasons but enter the new campaign with real optimism under new ownership, but perhaps as I'm an Owls fan, my expectations of the team are tempered by an unproven manager.
Lethal Louie worth backing
Nonetheless, the squad looks strong on paper, and LOUIE BARRY's 16/1 price to be TOP SCORER each-way could be made to look silly come May.
Barry has had his injury struggles over the past few seasons but there is never any doubting his talent, especially below Championship level. As a 21-year-old in 23/24 he was sent on-loan to Stockport in League Two and duly fired nine goals in 17 starts, averaging 0.46 xG per 90, in a season that saw him miss nearly six months through injury.
He went back to the Hatters the following season and netted 15 in 23 appearances in the first half of the campaign, averaging 0.47 xG per 90 and leading the top scorer race. Then he was recalled by parent club Aston Villa in January and sent to Championship Hull.
Last season, Barry started off at Sheffield United but struggled for game time and was recalled again before a third spell at Stockport began in February. He only played nine times in the league and scored four, averaging 0.51 xG per 90.
Every time he's played in the third tier he has been lethal, which bodes well for a Wednesday team who will be pushing for promotion. Barry should also have a very good foil to play off in the form of either Mason Burstow or Jamal Lowe, and while not certain, there seems a very good chance he could be the Owls' penalty taker having had spot-kick duties in his first spell at Stockport and netting four of four.
Wednesday don't have a clear penalty taker currently and only earned one last season in the league which was missed by Charlie McNeil, so Barry could step in for them. Should he stay fit, he could well go close to taking this gong given his class and record, especially now he has a permanent home and won't get recalled from a loan.
A hatful for a Hatter
I really fancy Luton to go well this season under Jack Wilshere, with the Hatters finishing like a house on fire to nearly sneak into the play-offs.
They won eight of an unbeaten final 11 to finish seventh, scoring 23 times in that run, with it all clicking into gear, and now they return much better prepared for the new campaign with a settled squad and manager which should mean they are in contention for promotion.
The Hatters are a short price, but LUTON TOP SIX should be in your outright accas given the quality of their squad and the consistency with which they finished last season, not to mention their data in that time, with their attacking numbers frightening over the final 10 matchdays (2.45 xGF per game).
My favourite outright bet of this season though comes in the form of KASEY PALMER TO BE TOP SCORER at a whopping 100/1 each-way. There is no doubting that Palmer has always had the ability to make a mockery of this level, and the way he finished last season when on-loan at Luton suggests to me that Wilshere may have found the way to get the best out of him.
Luton duly signed him permanently in the summer, and it could very well be the case that the team is built around him.
The Chelsea academy prospect scored eight times in 20 third-tier games, with all eight coming in Luton's final 11 matches which just so happened to coincide with their fantastic run of form.
In that time he averaged 3.13 shots, 1.51 shots on target and 0.48 xG per 90, so the process was excellent for a number 10, and his shot map shows that most of his chances and goals were coming in great positions, with six of his goals inside the width of the posts and within 10 yards of the goal which is fantastic.
Playing in a good attacking side, he should again get good chances, with the main hope bing Wilshere continues to get the best out of him and Palmer realises his potential. Oh, and that he doesn't get snapped up in January should he be rampant in the first half of 26/27.
Either way, he should be 50s not 100s in my opinion.
League Two
League Two threw up a big surprise last season with Bromley topping the pile, pipping 5/2 favourites MK Dons to the title. It does tend to be a league that leans into the unpredictable, with very little between those and the top and those at the bottom.
The team I'm interested in though to add a leg to our acca is one that Tom has already made a great case for - GRIMSBY. They are fancied to have another strong season, and their price for a second successive TOP-SEVEN FINISH looks too big at 5/4.
Grimsby's underlying data last season was excellent - second only to MK Dons on expected points (xP) while no team created more expected goals (75.5 - 1.64 per game) than them - and the playing and coaching staff has been kept together once again.
Continuity in this day and age can be a huge advantage, and Grimsby top seven will make up the final leg of our acca.
Count on Kabongo
We'll swiftly head into the top scorer market where I'll happily take the 12/1 price available for KABONGO TSHIMANGA TO BE TOP SCORER.
He leads the line for a very good Barnet team who are fancied to make a run at automatic promotion this season, and comes into this on the back of netting 16 times in total last season for a share of place money for top scorer backers.
Four of those came for Crawley before he netted 12 times in the second half of the campaign for Barnet, with seven of those coming in their final eight matches, of which the Bees won seven and scored 24 times.
Tshimanga has previous of challenging for top scorer awards too, finishing second in three straight National League seasons from 19/20 to 21/22 when at Boreham Wood and Chesterfield. A jump from non-league to League One perhaps held him back a bit since, but he re-found his scoring touch in a loan spell back at National League level in 2024 when scoring seven in 16.
It's been an upward trajectory ever since, hitting double figures in his first season in the fourth tier with Swindon before last season's haul, and if Barnet continue creating chances in the same manner they were at the back end of last season, he will again be on the end of plenty of them.
Hope for Harrison
I'll also recommend a smaller bet on Bristol Rovers striker ELLIS HARRISON TO BE TOP SCORER at a 50/1 generally, but 66/1 if you can get on with BetVictor. He finished the 25/26 season strongly and will be leading the line for another of the title favourites.
Harrison scored eight times in his last eight games, finding a clinical touch to close out the season having been wasteful until then. Prior to the final two months of the campaign, he had scored just three goals from chances equating to 8.60 xG and was one of the league's biggest underperformers despite averaging the third most xG per 90 (0.50).
In the last eight games of his season he scored eight times from 2.71 xG and finished pretty much mirroring his goals and xG total, with his excellent process the reason for that.
His 0.52 xG per 90 over the course of the season ranked him fourth highest of any League Two player, and the final eight games of the season is a proper showing of 'trust the process', with Harrison getting in the same good scoring positions but only making it pay later in the campaign, perhaps when confidence had returned and the Gas were winning every game.
Should his team maintain the same level of chance creation and winning habit, and he maintain his process and keep his confidence up, there is no reason he can't come close to scooping this top scorer award.
It is worth noting he has picked up a small injury in pre-season though shouldn't be out for long and could be fit for the start of the season.
Odds correct at 09:45 BST (7/8/26)
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