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Jake's predictions

Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 25/26 Matchday 29

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Mon March 02, 2026 · 1h ago

Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 401.75pts | Returned 419.36pts | P/L +17.61pts | ROI +4.4%

Football betting tips: Premier League

Tuesday 19:30

2pts Alex Scott 2+ total shots in Bournemouth vs Brentford at 5/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 4/5

2pts Sepp van den Berg 1+ total shots in Bournemouth vs Brentford at 21/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 8/11

2.5pts Jarred Branthwaite 1+ total shots in Everton vs Burnley at 19/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 8/11

1pt Bashir Humpreys to be carded in Everton vs Burnley at 6/1 (Betway) - min price 7/2

2.5pts Lutsharel Geertruida to commit 1+ foul and Gabriel Gudmundsson to win 1+ foul in Leeds vs Sunderland at 20/21 (bet365, Betway) - min price 3/4

1pt Lutsharel Geertruida to commit 2+ fouls in Leeds vs Sunderland at 3/1 (bet365, Betway) - min price 6/4

Tuesday 20:15 - Wolves vs Liverpool

1.5pts Alexis Mac Allister 1+ shot on target at 7/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 5/6

***Wednesday and Thursday bets to follow

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

As weekends go, the last one was up there for this column. Nearly +18pts profit across the 10 Premier League games is extremely pleasing, with Sunday doing the heavy lifting as we nearly landed the sweep.

Those of you who backed the bigger priced Harry Maguire-Jorgen Strand Larsen bet at 12/1 would have been paid out with Super Sub which will have been the cherry on top of a delicious Sunday cake.

Hopefully we can carry the good form into the midweek fixtures, which, admittedly have been a struggle this season. There are some familiar bets in the staking plan as I hope to keep hammering an edge for as long the price is still in a backable range. Fingers crossed they deliver for us again.

Bournemouth vs Brentford

Bournemouth peppered the Sunderland goal at the weekend, firing 21 shots but having to settle for a 1-1 draw. Our man ALEX SCOTT took three of those attempts, and while not wanting to be boring, we simply have to go back in again on him to take 2+ TOTAL SHOTS with the 5/4 price very much still value.

This bet has now landed in seven of his last eight games, firing 22 attempts in that span at an average of 2.68 per 90. The Cherries are a shot-heavy team at home, especially of late, averaging 1.54 shots per game in their last seven at the Vitality despite a tough schedule that includes four of the top six.

Brentford do concede plenty of attempts on their travels too, with their last three away seeing them ship 12 to Burnley, 16 at Newcastle and a whopping 27 at Aston Villa.

The Bees do pose a real set-piece threat though, as evidenced last weekend at Turf Moor where SEPP VAN DEN BERG was among the set-play attempts. We were on him at 17/20 for 1+ TOTAL SHOT on that occasion, and we'll again repeat that bet here with the Dutchman a bigger price at 21/20 against an equally as vulnerable set-piece team.

Only West Ham (124) have conceded more set-piece shots than Bournemouth (121) this season, while no team has conceded more set-piece goals, highlighting the Cherries frailties from dead-ball situations.

Van den Berg took three shots last weekend and has now landed this bet in five of his last seven.

Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Odds correct at 12:30 GMT (02/03/26)

Everton vs Burnley

Everton claimed a big win at Newcastle on Saturday, and JARRED BRANTHWAITE was on the scoresheet thanks to a superb glancing header. Burnley lost a 4-3 thriller to Brentford and continued to show their set-piece vulnerabilities - you know where I'm going with this...

The Toffee's towering centre-back can be backed at 19/20 for just 1+ TOTAL SHOT here and it's must-bet material. Everton will be peppering the Clarets' box with set-pieces, just as they did against Manchester United last Monday when taking 10 corners, meaning there's a good chance Branthwaite is on the end of one.

In limited minutes this season he's averaging 0.88 shots per 90, with this bet landing in three of his four league starts this term. Burnley conceded twice from set-pieces last weekend and have shipped the fourth-most set-piece shots in the league (119).

Given the referee appointment here - Tim Robinson, who is averaging 4.63 cards per game in the Premier League this term - I want to chance BASHIR HUMPHREYS TO BE CARDED at a huge 6/1.

He was booked last weekend when playing on the right side of defence, with that his fourth of the campaign. He's averaging 0.37 cards per 90 which makes the price on offer simply massive, and if operating in that right channel again he'll have to contend with Iliman Ndiaye and Kiernan Dwesbury-Hall which spells danger.

Score prediction: Everton 2-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 12:30 GMT (02/03/26)

Leeds vs Sunderland

Leeds, under the lights, are not a team to oppose. For whatever reason, the Whites love playing late matches, and they look a fair price to win here at near-even-money. My attentions though are turned towards Sunderland's injury issues which present a lovely slice of value.

The Black Cats are missing both left-backs Reinildo and Denis Cirkin, as well as preferred right-back Nordi Mukiele, which led to LUTSHAREL GEERTRUIDA playing at right-back last weekend against Bournemouth. The fact he is likely to be there again in midweek doesn't seem to have been picked up by the market.

Geertruida has played substantial minutes right-back just four times this season for club and country this season, committing a foul on each occasion, and so we'll double up him TO COMMIT 1+ FOUL with Leeds left-wing back GABRIEL GUDMUNDSSON TO WIN 1+ FOUL for a lovey looking 20/21 shot.

Gudmundsson is a foul-drawing machine fresh from being felled five times by Manchester City. In the Premier League he's been fouled in all of his last 22 appearances, averaging 1.81 fouls won per 90, and will come up against Geertruida on plenty of occasions on Tuesday night to give this bet a huge chance.

Again, it goes without saying that this bet can win in one action, like at the weekend with Harry Maguire and Jorgen Strand Larsen, but the two players can foul or be fouled by other players and we still get a winner.

We'll also back GEERTRUIDA TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS as a single at 3/1. This bet has won in two of his four games at right-back this season, and as well as Gudmundsson down his side, the Dutchman will likely have to deal with Brenden Aaronson (1.85 fouls won per 90) too.

The reason we are getting such a big price is that Geertruida hasn't been a prolific fouler this season, making just 10 fouls all campaign, but the continued position change hasn't been factored in here, so we are on value should he continue at right-back. Even at centre-back up against Leeds' physical forwards, this bet would have a chance. He's 15/2 (Betway) for a card if people can get on there.

Score prediction: Leeds 2-1 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct at 12:30 GMT (02/03/26)

Wolves vs Liverpool

A rather curious contest this one. Wolves are all-but relegated and Liverpool are pushing for a top four finish, but the interesting factor for this match is that these two teams will do it all again in the FA Cup on Friday.

That clash surely has to be the priority for Rob Edwards' side as opposed to this league meeting, while Liverpool can't afford to slip up in the league and have a trip to Galatasaray in the Champions League next midweek. So, what I'm getting at is there is potential uncertainty around selection for the hosts in this one.

The Reds should go full-strength, and I'm drawn to ALEXIS MAC ALLISTER 1+ SHOT ON TARGET here at 7/5. The Argentine has landed this bet in three of his last five matches, scoring in his last two, as he's started getting himself higher up the pitch more regularly.

Against a Wolves side happy to sit deep and soak up pressure, Mac Allister should get plenty of opportunities to pull the trigger and hopefully test Jose Sa, or fire one past him.

Score prediction: Wolves 0-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Odds correct at 14:55 GMT (02/03/26)

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