Fulham provide the latest obstacle in Manchester City's unrelenting hunt for a Treble. Michael Beardmore provides a preview and two best bets including a 17/2 shot.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Joao Palhinha 5+ tackles at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Joao Palhinha first player carded at 17/2 (William Hill)
The Manchester City juggernaut crashes into Craven Cottage on Sunday, intent on making fading Fulham its latest victim – and it’s difficult, in truth, to see any other outcome.
The Cottagers have beaten strugglers Everton and Leeds recently but six defeats have been wrapped around those two hardly earth-shaking wins.
Mid-table comfort has long been secured and with top scorer Aleksandar Mitrovic still serving his eight-match ban, it’s tough to envisage them troubling a City side that has won 10 successive games domestically.
That's reflected in the odds: Fulham are 11/1 to win or 16/5 just to avoid defeat via the double chance while Pep Guardiola's side are a measly best-priced 2/7 after thrashing Arsenal to put the destiny of the Premier League title in their own hands.
Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Fulham 11/1 | Draw 21/4 | Man City 2/9
As a result, value is difficult to find from a visitors’ perspective, with arguably the best price the 9/5 on offer about a City win and over 3.5 goals in the match. City have been on fire recently and I would not put you off that bet but the reason I stopped short of advising is they are nowhere near as free-scoring away (1.87 goals per game) as at home (3.38).
Instead, I’m keen to focus on a Fulham player in the tackles and cards markets, namely Joao Palhinha, who has been one of the Cottagers’ standout stars in his first season in the Premier League.
The combative Portuguese has averaged 4.1 tackles per game but what makes me stand up and take notice is how that statistic discernibly increases when Fulham are facing the top teams.
Against the top seven – in games where Fulham are denied possession and have to go chasing it – he has registered tackle counts of 5, 5, 6, 9, 3, 6, 4, 5 and 6, averaging 5.4 tackles in such games.
At home against elite teams that average increases again to 6.5 tackles per game – and would rise even more if you included eighth-placed Brighton, against whom he attempted eight tackles at the Cottage.
It all makes the 2/1 Sky Bet offer on 5+ PALHINHA TACKLES - that's five or more - worthy of a play. If you wanted bigger odds he's 9/2 for six or more, a mark he's passed in seven of his 29 games but I'll stick with five tackles (reached 12 times in 29).
For someone who likes to get stuck in, it’s no surprise Palhinha is the most cautioned player involved here – his 12 yellow cards (in just 29 games) are four more than anyone else in either squad.
You can get 5/2 on him to see yellow anytime but I like the 17/2 on PALHINHA TO BE FIRST PLAYER CARDED with William Hill as a long shot: four of his last six bookings have all come inside 20 minutes.
Fulham v Manchester City score prediction and best bets
- Joao Palhinha 5+ tackles at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
- Joao Palhinha first player carded at 17/2 (William Hill)
Score prediction: Fulham 0-3 Man City (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct 1050 BST (28/04/23)
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