Football betting tips: Saturday best bets
0.5pts Josh Brownhill to be carded in Burnley vs Man Utd at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Burnley vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 7/2 | Draw 16/5 | Away 4/6
James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)
JOSH BROWNHILL played a pivotal role in Burnley’s title winning campaign in the Championship. He started 41 games, scored seven, assisted eight and was carded nine times, which encapsulates his all action importance well.
The import of Sander Berge and a tactical rejig meant Brownhill had to settle for a spot on the bench at the very beginning of the season.
Even with his stunted game time (two starts), Brownhill has picked up two cards, one of which came nine minutes into his cameo against Tottenham.
A strong performance in the Clarets 1-1 draw at the City Ground on Monday should be enough to see Brownhill reclaim his spot in the centre of the park this weekend and his price TO BE CARDED appeals.
Odds correct 1530 BST (22/09/23)
Already advised:
3pts Timothy Castagne to commit 1+ fouls at 10/11 in Palace vs Fulham (Betfair, Paddy's)
1.5pts Barnsley to beat Northampton at 13/10 (Betfair)
1.5pts Arnaut Danjuma 3+ shots in Brentford vs Everton at 7/5 (Betfair, Paddy’s)
1pt Timothy Castagne to commit 2+ fouls in Palace vs Fulham at 4/1 (Betfair, Paddy's)
0.5pts Nottingham Forest to win and Matt Turner to be carded vs Man City at 110/1 (Sky Bet)
Crystal Palace vs Fulham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 10/11 | Draw 12/5 | Away 16/5
James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)
No player has drawn more fouls in the Premier League than Crystal Palace’s Jordan Ayew (3.2).
Every opponent the winger has faced has committed at least one foul, Lucas Digne and Takehiro Tomiyasu racked up three each.
This weekend, if Marco Silva does not change the side that beat Luton 1-0, it should be TIMOTHY CASTAGNE starting at left back.
The Belgium international is a shade of odds on to COMMIT 1+ FOULS with Betfair and Paddy’s, the same bet is 1/3 elsewhere.
In his only league start to date, Castagne committed a foul and was carded, backing him to repeat the feat appeals at the price.
Given Castagne’s opponent, backing the full back to COMMIT 2+ FOULS also appeals.
Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 1/8 | Draw 15/2 | Away 18/1
James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)
We shouldn't be getting carried away by Manchester City's fast start.
They looked imperious on Tuesday evening against Red Star Belgrade racking up 22 shots in the first half alone but once again they conceded first.
This was also the case at the London Stadium where James Ward-Prowse opened the scoring. Sheffield United and Fulham also found the net against Pep's side pegging back the treble winners, albeit temporarily.
I am not saying they don't deserve credit for taking 15 points from a possible 15, they just haven't hit the performance level of last yet, maybe it is Kevin De Bruyne's absence.
Last season, NOTTINGHAM FOREST were spanked 6-0 in this exact fixture at the Etihad, going off at around 25/1.
Including that result, the Tricky Trees conceded 17 goals and scored just once in their first three trips away to ‘big six’ sides last season.
Towards the back end of last season Steve Cooper showed that his side are ready to compete with the big boys. Liverpool edged a five goal thriller at Anfield and four goals were split evenly at Chelsea.
This has carried over into this season.
Forest lost 2-1 at the Emirates. A game the visitors went off at 15/1 to win and although Arsenal dominated possession in the first half with some slick passing, they created next to nothing and Forest almost nicked a point.
Cooper's side also raced into a 2-0 lead at Old Trafford, a scoreline that will get you paid out as a winner with some betting firms these days, eventually losing 3-2.
Forest went close against Arsenal and even closer against Manchester United before pulling off a scalp at Stamford Bridge. A 1-0 victory over Chelsea in a fixture they went off at 7/1 to win.
Someone tried to talk me out of this in the office but I think combining a FOREST WIN with their keeper MATT TURNER TO BE SHOWN A CARD is worth a punt at huge odds.
Forest’s stopper was carded against Chelsea, so we just need a carbon copy of that fixture here.
Northampton vs Barnsley
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 21/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 23/20
Joe Townsend (@JoesterT)
BARNSLEY suffered a freak early collapse to trail Portsmouth 3-0 after just 16 minutes on Tuesday night, but still almost came away with a point.
While working themselves out under new boss Neil Collins they do look susceptible against higher quality attacks, something Peterborough and Oxford have also taken advantage of, but Northampton Town will not pose the same level of threat.
At a healthy odds-against with most firms, a BARNSLEY WIN should be backed.
While the Tykes have taken seven points from a possible nine on the road, and scored 22 goals in 10 matches in all competitions this season, the Cobblers have scored only six times in nine games and lost six of their nine fixtures.
Even those occasions where they avoided defeat require a caveat.
Northampton scored twice in the last four minutes to draw with Lincoln, in the 88th minute to win at bottom club Cheltenham (the only team in the country yet to score this season) and beat Peterborough 1-0 via a freak Mitch Pinnock stoppage-time goal.
Prior to Tuesday, Barnsley had won four straight games 2-0 and still sit sixth in League One, just three points off the pace. This looks a prime opportunity to shrug off their midweek disappointment.
Brentford vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 4/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 10/3
James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)
Brentford have conceded fewer than average shots per game in the Premier League (12.8), 19% coming down the right.
Bobby Cordova-Reid (2), Antoine Semenyo (2), Dejan Kulusevski (3) and Jordan Ayew (5) all had multiple attempts against the Bees. The only left sided player to fail to have a single shot this season was Anthony Gordon.
ARNAUT DANJUMA is 7/5 with Betfair and Paddy’s to have 3+ SHOTS, and with the bet odds on with most other firms, that price looks a slice of value.
The Dutch winger has had 16 attempts in his last four Premier League starts (4.22 shots p90), covering this line in each of those games except the 1-0 defeat against Arsenal.
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