Rugby league betting tips: Ian Millward's weekend Super League & NRL preview
Two-time Grand Final winner Ian Millward previews this weekend's Super League action.
Recommended bets: Super League & NRL
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Leeds v St Helens (+2) – Thursday, 2000 BST, Sky Sports 1
Leeds are without both Danny McGuire and Rob Burrow this week and that could cause problems when it comes to scoring points.
These sides have already played once this year – a 6-4 win to St Helens the result- but history shows they normally play out high-scoring games.
It’s a massive game for St Helens – they need to win to stay in the top eight with the split approaching.
They are coming in off a one-point, somewhat lucky, win last week having been down 16-0 to Salford.
I’m loathe to go with St Helens because they’ve generally struggled for points this year but with McGuire and Burrow out and Leeds’ loss of last week (to Castleford), I’m going for Saints to win and cover the start.
Castleford v Hull (+8) – Friday, 2000 BST, Sky Sports 2
First host second here and it’s notable that Hull have won both games between the pair this year.
The visitors have a couple of key players coming back for this one – Albert Kelly and Mark Minichiello.
Gareth Ellis continues to miss out though. He’s been out for a long period – over 10 games now – and that has created some inconsistency in their performance.
This fixture has predominantly produced high-scoring games and over in the total points market looks a really good way for punters to go in this game.
I was really impressed by Cas against Leeds last week and they’ve been able to rotate their squad. They are a mobile team and keep on scoring points.
They are the best attacking team in the league and can win at home in a high-scoring contest.
Catalans v Leigh (+12) – Saturday, 1700 BST, Sky Sports 1
Catalans have already won away to Leigh this season and can beat them again here.
It’s a bit hard to fathom what the approach will be. With four rounds of the regular season to go, are Leigh starting to get ready for the Qualifiers?
With a three-point gap between eighth and ninth, this weekend is probably the last throw of the dice for the bottom four if they want to get out of trouble.
Catalans (10th, four points off the top eight) are getting some players back from injury now and I think they will be too strong in this one.
If it’s a hot day in the south of France, it will affect the big Leigh forwards.
For me, it’s Catalans to win and cover at home.
Wakefield v Warrington (scr) – Saturday, 1830 BST
A win books Wakefield’s place in the top eight. Last week they led but got run down by Hull although that’s still pretty good form.
Warrington’s game with Catalans was of poor quality but the Wolves have won five of the last six against Wakefield.
I’m worried by the loss of Joe Westerman this week though. He’s a forward who creates opportunities for his team. On the plus side, new Australian signing Peta Hiku is available.
However, I can’t trust Warrington right now. Their back three has been pretty poor and if Wakefield play for 80 minutes they will be tough and ruthless enough.
Wakefield to win at home.
Salford v Huddersfield (+6) – Sunday, 1500 BST
Salford have had a wobble lately, winning only one of their last four. They led 16-0 last week (v St Helens) but were beaten by a field goal right on full time.
They have won five of their last six against Huddersfield, who come into the game unbeaten in their last four. Jordan Rankin will be playing his first game for the Giants this weekend but it’s more than likely that Martyn Ridyard will be out.
Huddersfield’s really good form has moved them up to seventh but this will be a big test.
Salford’s form wasn’t bad last week and I think they’ll ramp it up a lot now.
I take them to win and cover the start this week.
Wigan v Widnes (+16) – Sunday, 1500 BST
It’s unbelievable that Wigan have now lost eight in a row in Super League - a run which has put their top-eight place under threat.
Good news for them is that Tony Clubb is back in the front row. He creates things going forward.
A key stat for me is that the last five games between these two have had a total win difference of just 18 points. Essentially games between them are always close. In addition, Widnes have won three of the last four.
With this in mind and Wigan out of sorts, I’m taking Widnes with the start.
They come up with a lot of spoiling tactics and are good at slowing Wigan down and stifling them. Sixteen points will be a lot for Wigan to cover.
NRL
Brisbane v Melbourne – Friday, 1050 BST, Premier Sports
For the Storm, four Test players return after Origin duty and they have a pretty unbelievable record away to the Broncos.
As much as the Broncos are in a rich vein of form, the Storm look the team to beat in this game.
They are the competition favourites and I think they can do the business.
Manly v New Zealand Warriors – Saturday, 0830 BST, Premier Sports
Manly have been the surprise package of the year and it’s mainly been down to the way they work for each other.
The halves, Blake Green, once of Wigan, and Daly Cherry-Evans, get the team around the park really well.
For the Warriors, Kieran Foran hasn’t played many games and they’ve suffered as a result.
Manly can keep their momentum rolling – I take them to win and cover.
Canberra v North Queensland – Saturday, 1030 BST, Premier Sports
The Cowboys have lost Johnathan Thurston for the rest of the year due to injury which is a big blow.
The Raiders have lost four games by one point this season so as much as everyone says they are struggling, they aren’t that far away.
I feel that on a really cold night in Canberra, the Cowboys will struggle.
It’s make or break for the Raiders (they are 11th and four points outside the top eight) and I expect them to step up. They are my best bet of the round in the NRL – Raiders to win and cover.
Posted at 1240 BST on 29/06/17.
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