New Zealand v British and Irish Lions betting tips: Second Test preview
Our Steve Bramley has four tips for Saturday's second Test between New Zealand and the British & Irish Lions, including a 20/1 shot.
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To say the odds are heavily stacked against the British and Irish Lions ahead of the second Test against New Zealand is an understatement.
Warren Gatland’s side were out-muscled and ultimately outclassed by the All Blacks in last weekend's 30-15 defeat at Eden Park and go into Saturday’s clash knowing they must win to keep the series alive.
Only twice before – in 1899 and 1989 – have the Lions won a Test series from being one match down. The task facing Gatland’s men couldn’t be any harder.
The All Blacks’ unbeaten run on home soil now stretches back 47 matches, in fact coach Steve Hansen has never tasted defeat at home in 31 games since taking the reins six years ago.
The Lions will also be well aware that their last visit to the 'Cake Tin', 12 years ago, ended in a crushing 48-18 defeat as Dan Carter scored 33 points.
Based on the above, the general 5/1 about a Lions victory, their first in New Zealand since Gavin Hastings led them to victory in Wellington in 1993, doesn’t offer any value in my book.
The Lions produced several moments of brilliance in Auckland and at times, particularly either side of the break, genuinely rocked the world champions with their running rugby. You have to wonder what the outcome would have been if Elliot Daly had crossed inside the opening two minutes.
If the Lions can find a way to match the hosts’ physical approach their backs definitely have a chance, but surely they deserve to be chalked up at a bigger price.
I’m a big fan of Gatland. He does have a habit of pulling a rabbit out of a hat, but I’m not convinced by his selection for this clash.
Last week’s call-up of Liam Williams and Daly was a major surprise and Gatland has again tossed the coin with his decision to partner Johnny Sexton and Owen Farrell, giving a clear indication of a plan to use a kicking game to try to pin the All Blacks deep in their own half.
But the Kiwi’s decision to leave Ben Te’o on the bench is mystifying.
The England man was at the heart of all things good for the Lions last week and when he was taken off, midway through the second half, it opened a huge door for Sonny Bill Williams to rampage through.
The pick of Alun Wyn Jones is also questionable. The Wales second row has looked a shadow of his former self on this tour and surely the addition of the powerful Courtney Lawes or Ireland’s Iain Henderson, who both impressed in the midweek draw with the Hurricanes, would have provided the tourists with more direct, ball-carrying options.
Maro Itoje’s inclusion alongside Jones is no surprise and he will be a key figure in attempting to deprive Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock of line-out ball.
It is also tough on last week’s skipper Peter O’Mahony, who was hailed as a great leader and has been left out of the 23-man squad altogether.
I’m pleased to see CJ Stander on the bench. The Irish number eight deserved a place last week and he could have a big part to play in the second half.
But ultimately, if the Lions are to have any chance they need to win the battle up front and that is going to take some doing after such a mauling by Kieran Read and co last week.
Being led by my heart, I desperately want to tip up the Lions to square the series but the head says that however well they play the odds-on world champions have a couple more gears to go through. Hansen’s men have scored more than 29 points in each of their last 11 home games (all wins) and look rock solid at a shade of odd-on to extend that run.
That said, I do think it will be closer than last week. Ten of the All Blacks’ last 13 matches - including the first Test - have had their opponents within nine points at the break so I'll take a slice of the 3/1 available on the half-time winning margin being 6-10 points.
Jonathan Davies was a real threat last week but it’s feared he won’t see as much ball as he did that day with Sexton and Farrell inside him.
Instead I’m going to take a plunge on Anthony Watson crossing first at 20/1 (general).
The England man impressed in the back three alongside Williams and Daly last week and I believe he is the man who could benefit from the boot of Sexton or Farrell and exploit gaps behind stand-in full-back Israel Dagg.
The safer bet is Rieko Ioane to cross first at 15/2. The All Black wing was three years old when the hosts last suffered defeat on home soil and, after a dazzling two-try show last week, is hard to resist.
Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports
Posted at 1555 BST on 29/06/17.
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