15:15 Ascot

Saturday 21 October 2017

All13:2514:0014:4015:1515:5016:30

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) (Sponsored By Qipco)

Off time: 15:23 | Winning time: 1m 46.13s

(10)

Breton Rock³⁵

Age: 7| Weight: 9-4| J: Andrea Atzeni| T: D M Simcock| OR: 113| C

66/1

Benefited from strong pace when held up in the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood but hasn't managed to place in two efforts since. No doubt he'll enjoy the rain that's come but his wins have come at Group 2 level and he's unlikely to improve at this point.

Form: 353145

(7)

Here Comes When^h⁸⁰

Age: 7| Weight: 9-4| J: J P Spencer| T: A M Balding| OR: 116| D

20/1

Career best when landing the Sussex Stakes (Group 1) at the Goodwood Festival last time, clearly relishing the soft ground. Not completely ruled out in similar conditions here but vulnerable to anything improving.

Form: 104-131

(14)

Lightning Spear⁴¹

Age: 6| Weight: 9-4| J: Oisin Murphy| T: D M Simcock| OR: 115| D

40/1

Good third behind Ribchester and Here Comes When at Goodwood and followed up with a win at that course in a Group 2 next time. No match for Ribchester over in France last time though and each-way claims at best for a yard a little quiet of late.

Form: 297316

(13)

Ribchester⁴¹

Age: 4| Weight: 9-4| J: W Buick| T: R A Fahey| OR: 125| BF| CD

2/1

C&D winner, narrowly denied when going for a hat-trick of Group 1 races last time at Goodwood when behind Here Comes Win. Probably wants faster ground to be at his best but still effective with cut and only narrowly beaten in this last year.

Form: 2-31121

(4)

Toscanini²⁰

Age: 5| Weight: 9-4| J: James Doyle| T: R A Fahey| OR: 111

100/1

Has largely been used as a pacemaker since joining this yard but showed he can still be effective when runner-up of 18 in a Group 3 two starts back at York. Probably doesn't quite stay this far and likely to be deployed from the front again.

Form: 580528

(8)

Zonderland⁵⁶

Age: 4| Weight: 9-4| J: A Kirby| T: C G Cox| OR: 113| D

66/1

Looked like he had come to win the race in a Goodwood Group 2 last time when just touched off by the winner that beat him in the same race last year (Lightning Spear). Needs to improve to figure here but still lightly raced at least.

Form: 61812-2

(11)

Al Wukair^p1⁶⁹

Age: 3| Weight: 9-1| J: Gregory Benoist| T: A Fabre| D

7/1

Exciting prospect who placed in the Guineas and produced a career best to land a French Group 1 last time out, battling on gamely once he had looked beaten. Cheekpieces look like a smart move but needs more improvement to win this.

Form: 11-1321

(12)

Beat The Bank²²

Age: 3| Weight: 9-1| J: Jim Crowley| T: A M Balding| OR: 114| D

4/1

Improving sort who made easy work of a Group 2 at Newmarket last time out. Proven in soft ground and well worth a crack at this level with more improvement likely.

Form: 110111

(1)

Churchill⁴²

Age: 3| Weight: 9-1| J: R L Moore| T: A P O'Brien| OR: 123| BF| C| D

9/2

Dual 2,000 Guineas winner who recovered from a blip to finish a good second at York in the Juddmonte International. Disappointing last time when probably too close to a fast pace and while he does act with cut, soft ground probably isn't ideal.

Form: 1-11427

(3)

Lancaster Bomber³⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 9-1| J: D O'Brien| T: A P O'Brien| OR: 132

40/1

No win since landing a maiden but has been running well in defeat, particularly in the King George at Ascot. Runner-up in a Group 1 at Woodbine last time but ground conditions probably gone against him here and Moore prefers Churchill.

Form: 445262

(9)

Nathra¹⁴

Age: 4| Weight: 9-1| J: R Havlin| T: J & T Gosden| OR: 111

50/1

Group 3 winner last year and has produced some creditable efforts in defeat this time around, including when placed behind a smart sort in a Group 1 last time. This looks much tougher though and Dettori prefers Persuasive.

Form: 3-63223

(6)

Persuasive¹⁴

Age: 4| Weight: 9-1| J: L Dettori| T: J & T Gosden| OR: 113| BF| CD

8/1

Won her first five starts and running well in Group 1 company this campaign without getting her head in front. Got the better of stablemate Nathra when runner-up last time but more needed facing the opposite sex for the first time at this level.

Form: 112-532

(5)

Sir John Lavery²²

Age: 3| Weight: 9-1| J: Seamie Heffernan| T: A P O'Brien| OR: 111| BF| D

33/1

Listed winner who has been a little disappointing up at Group level. Plenty to do to turn the form around with Beat The Bank from last time and looks down the order on jockey bookings.

Form: 1-69142

(15)

Thunder Snow^v1⁶⁹

Age: 3| Weight: 9-1| J: C Soumillon| T: S bin Suroor| OR: 118| D

16/1

Dual Group 1 winner who landed the second of those two starts back in the Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly. Game effort in defeat to Al Wukair last time and seemingly versatile from a ground perspective. Wears a first-time visor and has each-way claims.

Form: 102313

(2)

Sea Of Grace⁴¹

Age: 3| Weight: 8-12| J: D Tudhope| T: W J Haggas| OR: 109| BF| D

33/1

Group 3 winner as a juvenile and landed a Listed race at Haydock in August. Disappointing short-priced favourite in a Group 2 last time but likely to be better than that and drop back in trip in her favour. Yard are in excellent form.

Form: 1-52414

Forecasts

Ribchester (2/1), Beat The Bank (4/1), Churchill (9/2), Al Wukair (7/1), Persuasive (8/1), Thunder Snow (16/1), Here Comes When (20/1), Sea Of Grace (33/1), Sir John Lavery (33/1), Lightning Spear (40/1), Lancaster Bomber (40/1), Nathra (50/1), Zonderland (66/1), Breton Rock (66/1), Toscanini (100/1)

RIBCHESTER acts with cut in the ground and was only just beaten in extreme conditions last time out (going stated soft but likely it was heavy). He ought to reverse the form with Here Comes When who isn't without an each-way chance himself. Beat The Bank looks highly progressive and ought to be thereabouts if he takes another step forward while Thunder Snow and Al Wukair hold a similar form line and may be capable of running into a place. Dual 2,000 Guineas winner Churchill can't be ruled out but there's a suspicion the ground has gone against him here.