It has been fascinating listening to Aidan O’Brien and Nicky Henderson chatting about their respective Constitutions this week.
On the one hand Henderson bemoans that Constitution Hill is ‘running in a race he can’t win’ when he lines up in the Group 3 William Hill September Stakes at Kempton on Saturday, while on the other O’Brien has clearly tied himself up in knots thinking about what went wrong for Constitution River in the Juddmonte International.
“It was all a complete mess, really,” he eventually summarised.
I’ve no idea what the end game is for Constitution Hill, but it would be a surprise to me if it is the Melbourne Cup for which he was entered on Tuesday. That dream has several hurdles to negotiate, ironically, and he could fall at the first if he doesn’t finish in the top three this weekend. Can you really see him travelling 10,000 miles for the 24-runner handicap on likely fast ground at Flemington, even if he does qualify and the vets do give him the green light? Even the best-case scenario of a wet spring in Melbourne and it still looks unlikely.
While the future for Constitution Hill is uncertain, the plan for Constitution River looks much clearer; having a couple of more runs as a three-year-old before he is retired to the breeding sheds at Coolmore.
The first of those appearances will be in the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown on September 12, where he could face a rematch with more than one of his Juddmonte International rivals, but his swansong seems up for grabs.
“Ryan [Moore] always felt he was an Arc horse,” O’Brien brainstormed out loud on the Nick Luck Daily Podcast earlier in the week, before quickly adding an alternative route. “I don’t know whether the lads will do that or go back to the English Champion, or whatever, but he’s definitely different.
“What we want to see is a strongly-run race and him just to relax, then we’ll see what he can do.”
An Irish Champion win would give the son of Wootton Bassett a second Group 1 10-furlong victory against his elders after his Coral-Eclipse triumph, to go along with his Classic success in the Prix du Jockey Club, a very solid C.V. for a retiring three-year-old with a career at stud in mind.
But O’Brien rarely fashions solid C.V.s when he gets a horse of the calibre of Constitution River in his care and when he says he’s ‘definitely different’ and then he adds an ‘or whatever’ to the British Champion Stakes option you do wonder if he’s got a curveball up his sleeve.
It seems to me that if a mile and a half was once an option for Constitution River then York put paid to that, but dropping back in trip to a mile in the QEII on Champions Day could be something O’Brien is thinking about before this talented colt enters the stallion business.
Adding a mile Group 1 to his achievements to go along with the well-proven 10-furlong success really would mark him out as something different, even though it is a route that O’Brien has taken many times before.
Giant’s Causeway dropped backed to the mile of the QEII (where he was second) after winning the Eclipse, Juddmonte International and Irish Champion in the year 2000, and that’s when there were just two weeks between Leopardstown and Ascot.
Hawk Wing, Duke Of Marmalade, Rip Van Winkle, Minding and Churchill have all also dropped back from the 10 furlongs in the Irish Champion to the mile of the QEII since then, with Rip Van Winkle and Minding doing so successfully, so O’Brien certainly has a template to follow.
With Bow Echo out of the equation the miling division is up for grabs and for all Gstaad could be the one to emerge from his shadow, starting in the Prix du Moulin this weekend, he looks more likely to turn up in a Breeders’ Cup Mile on fast ground rather than a soft ground Champions Day brawl.
I’m not saying the latter scenario is what Constitution River wants either, really, but the tempo of a mile race could really suit him ['What we want to see is a strongly-run race and him just to relax'] and autumnal conditions at the trip could help his stamina get drawn out, much in the same way they did for Roaring Lion in 2018.
Constitution River has certainly shown the sort of gears that could see him thrive over a mile, particularly during his impressive Dee Stakes romp and when he took the Eclipse by the scruff of the neck in July, the overhead shots at Sandown perfectly illustrating the ease at which he went from fourth to first in a flash.
We shall see. It will almost certainly be weighed up behind closed doors considering the appeal it will have in the offices of the Coolmore marketing department.
All will be revealed in the weeks after the Irish Champion Stakes. But I will be more surprised if Constitution Hill is in quarantine for a trip Down Under than I will be if Constitution River is pointed towards the QEII as September turns into October.
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