Matt Brocklebank, Nic Doggett, Ben Linfoot and David Ord discuss the return and future of Constitution Hill.
Is the William Hill September Stakes the right race for Constitution Hill?
David Ord: It’s ended up being the only one hasn’t it? The Sky Bet Ebor plan crashed on the rocks of needing a third run at a time when A, the horse apparently wasn’t ready for one, and B, the ground was deemed too quick for him. Then they blinked too early at Windsor last week when worried over the going there. It’s a safe surface at the weekend, one they know he acts on, but these are far deeper waters than he’s been in on the Flat before and if we’re being honest, if the plan as Henderson has suggested is to go into heritage handicaps off the back of it, potentially not the cleverest step in protecting an opening mark of 101.
Ben Linfoot: Well, it’s a race and that’s something! I think Nicky Henderson would’ve been better off getting him qualified for the Sky Bet Ebor in time, but the long, dry summer didn’t help him I suppose so you can see why he’s eventually identified this Group 3 at a track and surface he is proven on. It looks a very good renewal, though.
Matt Brocklebank: He’s in pretty deep here as, given it’s slot in the calendar a month before the Arc, the September Stakes is always a bit of a Group 3+, having been won by the likes of Enable (x2), Hamish, Bay Bridge, Kalpana and Giavellotto in recent years. It’s easy to say now but I’d have probably done everything I could to try and get him qualified for the Ebor as he just isn’t going to be up to winning Group 1s on the Flat as a nine/going on 10-year-old. Is he…?
Nic Doggett: It's perfect. The list of recent winners includes Enable (twice), Bay Bridge, Kalpana and Giavellotto, all of whom are/were genuine Group 1 horses, and to my eyes Bay City Roller (if he runs) is the only one I would put in that bracket in this year's renewal.
Do you think he could win it?
MB: No, I imagine he’ll be made to play a supporting role if any of Bay City Roller, Arabian Crown, Tornado Alert or Gethin turn up. He’d probably have a serious race on his hands against Pride Of Arras, Almeric or Warrant Holder too, but the race does look a means to an end so it certainly won’t be the end of the road for Constitution Hill if he suffered his first loss on the Flat – and what would remarkably be only his second ever defeat having completed a race.
BL: It’s not beyond the realms of possibility. However, he has been backed into 5/1 and even with Bay City Roller looking an unlikely runner those odds look short enough to me considering the company he is keeping here.
DO: He’s the second lowest-rated horse going into it on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings and the one below him is a pacemaker. But I don’t think he’ll finish last – nor do I expect him to win. He does have the large Timeform P next to his master rating meaning they believe he’s capable of much better form, but the legs are nine, rising ten. It’s not a two-year-old or three-year-old with no obvious ceiling that we’re dealing with. He’s a stone behind Gethin and 13lb adrift of Bay City Roller. If either of those rolls into town with their A-Game then he’s in a race for third I fear.
ND: Yes. More bullishness needed please, especially from you Nicky (H).
Who is the biggest danger?
BL: Sorry, I set these questions and this is a bad one, isn’t it? It’s quite obviously Gethin. He’s a very good 117-rated horse, has no penalty, is proven at the track and he goes well after a break. I think he might just enjoy going back out in trip, as well. If he is uneasy in the face of further support for Conrad I can see myself backing Owen Burrows’ horse at anything approaching 9/4 (though that looks unlikely looking at the sea of support for him on Oddschecker).
DO: Gethin is in here without a penalty and using the race as a springboard for the Arc. He’s a worthy favourite but Bay City Roller is bang there despite the 7lb extra he carries for his Coronation Cup success, although there is a doubt about him running. In the race for third Pride Of Arras is a worry. He needs to be on his best behaviour after boiling over in the stalls before the Juddmonte International but his Sky Bet York Stakes second to Item in July reads very well now.
MB: It’s got to be Gethin for me, too. Owen Burrows is such a good trainer with these lightly-raced, slow-burning horses and this colt looked well suited to the Kempton track when successful here in April. He’s has time off since his disappointing Coral-Eclipse effort on quick ground and I expect him to bounce back upped in trip this autumn.
ND: Bay City Roller, if he runs, despite his 7lb penalty. He's the class act, will expose any weaknesses from the front, and I think he will enjoy the surface. I know Gethin was impressive when last seen here, but I don't think getting battered by better horses in the Eclipse warrants him being 11/8 now up in trip.
If he finishes in the top three can you envisage a Melbourne Cup bid?
ND: I can, but I wouldn't want to be his trainer's doctor as the thought of it all brings me out in a cold sweat worrying about him. But my overriding thought is: what's the point? He would have been unlikely to run in four of the last six renewals due to the ground on the day and I can't seeing connections being more cavalier than in the past now.
DO: I promise I haven’t been drinking but yes, I can – and suddenly too. I thought he had zero chance of boarding a plane to Australia when the idea was first mooted – as you do become a tad cynical over the years. The veterinary checks were an obvious first stumbling block but seemingly it’s so far, so good on that front. He needs to finish in the first three on Saturday and go up at least 6lb in the handicap too. But B would follow A in this case and if he does qualify to go…what other autumn targets are there here or in Europe that are open to him still and would compare in terms of prestige and legacy?
BL: Maybe it's the cynic in me Dave, but as much as Michael Buckley seems to be bang up for a Flemington expedition I just can’t see it. Can you really see Henderson sanctioning a 20,000-mile round trip for a race of that nature in conditions that will be alien to him? If it happens it will get plenty of UK racing fans out of their beds at 4am, me included, but I would be surprised.
MB: It did sound like Flemington was top of Michael Buckley’s wishlist right at the beginning of this Flat project and Constitution Hill should be rated highly enough to warrant a place in that field if he’s in the first three this weekend. Getting him over there in top shape before receiving the all-clear from the stringent local vets might be more significant potential stumbling blocks, but it would be entertaining to see him in the mix in Melbourne come the end of the year.
If he’s out of the three, what next?
DO: Big handicaps in the UK and Ireland. Over what trip I don’t know but if we get a proper sense of his ability on Saturday that shouldn’t close doors – it should open more. Go pot hunting in the spring and autumn. He’ll be ten when he returns next year. We’re in now or never territory.
BL: He could be perfect for the November Handicap at Doncaster.
MB: I’m not sure if this question is designed to make me suggest a return to hurdling could creep back onto the agenda at some stage, but I suppose it’s a ‘definite possible’ – to coin a phrase.
ND: He will be in the first three. If not, retirement, please.
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