F1 expert Louis Bollard landed a 70/1 winner in Qatar, and now turns his attentions to the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
Formula One betting tips: Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
3pts Ferrari to win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at 7/2 (Unibet)
2pts Jack Doohan to finish in the points at 6/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
- Follow Formula One expert Louis Bollard on X
After a thrilling Qatar Grand Prix, Formula One makes the short trip to Abu Dhabi for the 2024 season finale. Even though the Drivers' Championship is sealed, there is still plenty on the line for many teams. There are only 21 points between McLaren and Ferrari in the fight for the Constructors' Championship, and just eight between Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc for second place to Max Verstappen.
Further down the field Alpine lead Haas by five points so expect these teams to focus on the Constructors' battle.
Forza Ferrari
The return to a conventional track with a wide range of corners should suit FERRARI more than the other leading contenders. Since their upgrade package at Monza they have been the strongest car at tracks that demand all-round performance, which was highlighted by their wins in Texas and Mexico City.
Since then, excuses can be made for them not contending for the win. In Las Vegas, the unique low-grip surface suited the understeer-prone Mercedes more than anyone expected, but Ferrari still managed to get the better of Red Bull and McLaren.
In Qatar, Ferrari was always expected to be behind the leading contenders as their high-speed corner performance still trails others, but this will not be a factor this weekend and I make Ferrari clear value at 3/1 and bigger to win around the Yas Marina circuit.
At a double-figure price, I wouldn't put anyone off backing Carlos Sainz, but Charles Leclerc's strong record at this venue (2nd to Max Verstappen in 2022 and 2023) has led me to take the standout 7/2 on either Ferrari winning here.
Leclerc will have his eye on jumping Norris to second in the championship, and Ferrari have a realistic chance of taking the constructors' title despite the 21-point deficit. The performance cushion McLaren had over Ferrari in Qatar is more likely to be the other way around this weekend.
Doohan debut delight?
Esteban Ocon's surprise early departure has meant JACK DOOHAN gets his moment to shine.
While this may look like a chance to give Doohan some race experience before he takes up a full-time role in 2025, this Flavio Briatore plan is deeper than it looks, as usual. It's no secret that Alpine have been impressed with Franco Colapinto, with rumours circulating that Doohan could be sacked before he even gets a chance in F1 and replaced by the Argentinian. This could be Doohan's only chance to impress before that decision is made.
While this piles pressure onto Doohan, there are a number of factors in his favour. This is a track on which he dominated in his final F2 race in 2023, taking pole position and the feature race win. Doohan will also be boosted by the other strong performances we've seen from F2 drivers on their F1 debuts this year, including Ollie Bearman and Colapinto, proving this crop of F2 drivers can more than hold their own.
The Alpine is now a regular points-scorer which Pierre Gasly has proved. Ocon had been insinuating that his car wasn't getting the same upgrades as Gasly, although this is only true last time out as Gasly had an upgraded front wing.
With only five points separating Alpine and Haas in the constructors', this will be far from a test session for Doohan. He will be expected to provide an instant improvement on a disillusioned Ocon. At the prices, it's worth chancing that Doohan clicks with the car and gets in the mix for points.
Other drivers' chances
Max Verstappen
Fantastic improvement in car performance between the Sprint and Race last time out. Qatar was a one-dimensional track which is not the best form line for this weekend; it will be more difficult for them to tune their car like they did last week.
Lando Norris
Had the best car on balance over the Qatar weekend and could have won the race before the penalty. Will expect the tables to turn with Ferrari this weekend and will feel the impact of not being able to use their flexi rear wing.
Lewis Hamilton
Looks completely disillusioned with his team. His never-give-up attitude came into question as we was asking to retire a healthy car after being given a penalty last time out. His teammate may contend for the win, but the car's limitations should be more exposed here than they were in Vegas.
Guanyu Zhou
Phenomenal performance to score Sauber's first points of the season last time. That performance was track specific so will not be expected to be repeated. Positive signs mean they could avoid being last this weekend.
Valtteri Bottas
Possibly his last ever race in what is an untimely end to a fantastic career. Will find himself down the field on his final Formula One lap, will Sauber pit him for the fastest lap glory?
Posted at 1640 GMT on 05/12/24
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