Harry Kane and Spurs players react after conceding in their 6-1 thrashing at Newcastle

xG Premier League Review: Gameweek 32 scorelines according to expected goals


We round up the Premier League action in a less traditional fashion, delivering the xG (expected goals) scoreline, an Infogol fairness rating and noteworthy data points.


What are Infogol fairness ratings?

  • We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
  • This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

SUNDAY

Newcastle 6-1 Tottenham

  • Infogol xGG: 3.87-1.01
  • Fairness rating: 93.42%
  • Scorers: Murphy 2' Joelinton 6', Murphy 9', Isak 19', Isak 21', Kane 49', Wilson 67'
Jacob Murphy: Newcastle ace celebrates one of two goals in the 6-1 thrashing of Spurs
Jacob Murphy: Newcastle ace celebrates one of two goals in the 6-1 thrashing of Spurs

Newcastle scored five goals in the opening 21 minutes to leave Spurs shellshocked and further behind in the race for the top four.

Interim boss Cristian Stellini opted for a rare back four and the plan could not have gone much worse, with the Italian reverting to a back three/five once the damage had already been done.

The Magpies' were pulling the punches and their five strikes in that stunning opening quarter of the game came from a total of just 1.31 xG, as St James' Park was rocking with Spurs on the ropes.

Their 3.85 xG total was not their highest of the season, having created 4.17 in their goalless draw with Crystal Palace and 4.27 in their 4-0 home win over Aston Villa in October.

For Tottenham, it was unsurprisingly their worst defensive performance of the season on xG.

Newcastle are now six clear of Spurs in fifth having played a game loss.

Read: Cristian Stellini: Tottenham season to peter out under interim boss

Bournemouth 0-4 West Ham

  • Infogol xG: 1.32-2.49
  • Fairness rating: 73.23%
  • Scorers: Antonio 5', Paqueta 12' Rice 43' Fornals 72' Cornet 90'

West Ham took a huge step towards safety with a thrashing of another side battling to beat the drop in.

David Moyes' side go up to 13th and six clear of Everton in 18th after winning two and drawing one in their last three.

The Hammers created 2.49 xG from 18 efforts, three of them classed as 'big chances' while they earned a clean sheet at the other end despite the Cherries' 17 efforts - the best rated at 42% which fell to Kieffer Moore in the box in the latter stages.


SATURDAY

Brentford 1-1 Aston Villa

Leicester's Timothy Castagne

Douglas Luiz grabbed a late equaliser as Aston Villa snatched a 1-1 draw at Brentford, with the home side missing chances throughout.

Ivan Toney looked to have secured a 100th win as Brentford boss for Thomas Frank with his 20th goal of the season, though.

But Villa have yet to not score in a match since Unai Emery was appointed manager last October, and Luiz kept up that record as their late European challenge just about stayed on track.


Crystal Palace 0-0 Everton

Everton had Mason Holgate sent off as they dropped into the Premier League relegation zone despite a battling goalless draw at Crystal Palace.

Sean Dyche’s side were forced to hang on for the final 10 minutes at Selhurst Park after Holgate was shown a second yellow card when he tripped Jordan Ayew, earning a point that did little for their survival hopes.

Leicester’s victory against Wolves meant that Everton slipped back into the bottom three after as their winless run in the league extended to five games.

The result ended Palace’s perfect winning streak under Roy Hodgson who replaced the sacked Patrick Vieira in March, but their top-flight status now looks all but secure.


Leicester 2-1 Wolves

Timothy Castagne gave Leicester a survival lifeline after a vital 2-1 comeback win over Wolves.

The Foxes climbed out of the Premier League’s relegation zone on goal difference following a first victory in 10 top-flight games.

Kelechi Iheanacho’s penalty cancelled out Matheus Cunha’s opener in Dean Smith’s first home game in charge of the Foxes since replacing Brendan Rodgers.

Defeat denied Wolves a victory which would have put them on the brink of survival and left them with work still to do, sitting six points clear of the bottom three.

Leicester meanwhile were pushed out to odds-against to be relegated having entered the weekend odds-on. At 13/8, they were fifth in the market on Saturday night.


Liverpool 3-2 Nottingham Forest

  • Infogol xG: 3.33-0.97
  • Fairness rating: 78.82
  • Scorers: Jota 47' 55', Salah 70'; Williams 51', Gibbs-White 67'

Liverpool forward Diogo Jota is making up for lost time after his double against Nottingham Forest made it four goals in six days after a year-long barren spell.

However, the 3-2 win was littered with defensive lapses and, after the visitors quickly equalised twice through former Reds defender Neco Williams and Morgan Gibbs-White, it needed the reliable left boot of Mohamed Salah to secure victory.

Even then Liverpool’s progress to within six points of fourth-placed Newcastle was almost in jeopardy when Brennan Johnson lobbed Alisson Becker but was denied by the crossbar.

It was a deserved victory on chances created, however.


Fulham 2-1 Leeds

Leeds continued their slide towards the Premier League relegation zone as Fulham secured a third victory against the Yorkshire club this season.

Having gone into the game hoping to bounce back from 5-1 and 6-1 home defeats to Crystal Palace and Liverpool respectively, Leeds were unable to impose themselves as they fell to a 2-1 defeat.

After a lacklustre first half at Craven Cottage, Fulham found the breakthrough with Harry Wilson continuing his return to form with a second goal in as many games with a well-timed 58th-minute volley.

Andreas Pereira doubled Fulham’s lead after Illan Meslier came for a cross but was unable to clear, with the ball falling for the unmarked 27-year-old just five yards out.

Leeds pulled one back with 11 minutes to go to inject life into their performance, as Patrick Bamford’s effort was deflected into the back of the net off Joao Palhinha.

The visitors tried to push for an equaliser but, despite a significantly improved performance than in the previous 80 minutes, they were unable to level the game.

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