xG Premier League Review: Gameweek 31 scorelines according to expected goals

Sunday - Jake Osgathorpe

Nottingham Forest 0-2 Manchester United

• Infogol xG: 1.17 - 3.40
• Scorers: Antony 32', Dalot 76'

A dominant display from Manchester United saw them climb back up to third in the table and put six points between themselves and fifth-placed Tottenham.

United created an abundance of chances on the day, racking up over 3 xGF for the second game running and the fourth time this season.

Nottingham Forest were comfortably second best, and remain in the bottom three, but recent displays are a huge cause for concern.

Steve Cooper's side have lost seven of a winless 10 in the league, being second best in terms of chances created on nine occasions.

They have ranked as the worst team in the league across all major metrics (xGF, xGA, xGD and xP) since early February, which is an incredibly worrying sign.

West Ham 2-2 Arsenal

• Infogol xG: 2.07 - 2.66
• Scorers: Benrahma (pen) 33', Bowen 54' | Jesus 7', Odegaard

Deja vu? For the second Sunday in a row, Arsenal surged into a 2-0 lead away from home only to gain just a point in their pursuit of a first Premier League title since 2004.

This time, Gabriel Jesus and Martin Odegaard put the Gunners two up within 10 minutes, and many were thinking that this game could be an opportunity for Mikel Arteta's side to improve their goal difference. West Ham had other ideas.

Out of nothing, the Hammers won and scored a penalty near the end of the first half, and that brought them and the crowd to life, with the remainder of the contest fairly even.

The league leaders started the second half on the front foot and won a penalty of their own, though Bukayo Saka missed the chance to restore his side's two-goal cushion. Just how crucial could that miss be come the end of the season...

West Ham went on to equalise through Jarrod Bowen, and earned a big point in their fight for survival, but interestingly, the afternoon again highlighted some major defensive weaknesses for the title challengers.

Across their last seven league games, Arteta's men have allowed a huge 1.78 xGA per game, and in their last two away matches have conceded 4.40 and 2.07 xGA.

Their next away game is at the Etihad, and unless they tighten things up, Arsenal could get blown away.

After this weekend, we calculate City now have a 65% chance of retaining their title, with Arsenal's chances dwindling, and now down to 35%.

Saturday - Tom Carnduff

Chelsea 1-2 Brighton

• Infogol xG: 0.54 - 2.55
• Scorers: Gallagher 13' | Welbeck 42', Enciso 69'

Brighton's charge towards Europe continued with an impressive 2-1 victory away at bottom-half Chelsea.

Frank Lampard's third straight defeat since his appointment as interim head coach leaves Chelsea three points off 10th.

Brighton's strong creativity was evident in the first-half, as Roberto De Zerbi's men generated 1.66 xG to Chelsea's 0.17. Alexis Mac Allister failed to convert a big opportunity early on (0.52 xG) and the visitors were punished when Conor Gallagher struck from range.

Even after losing Joel Veltman and Evan Ferguson to injury, the Seagulls continued to battle and deservedly got their goal from Danny Welbeck, who was introduced as Ferguson's replacement.

For Brighton, the second-half looked like it was following the same pattern as the first, creating 0.88 xG worth of chances prior to the hour mark. Julio Enciso struck the post after being introduced from the bench for Veltman.

But he made amends shortly after, giving Brighton their deserved second goal with a sensational strike from long distance as the game entered its final 20 minutes, that attempt registering at just 0.02 xG.

Brighton though fully deserved to score twice and win, and in doing so moved to within seven points of the top-four ahead of Manchester United's trip to Nottingham Forest on Sunday.

Manchester City 3-1 Leicester

• Infogol xG: 1.92 - 1.92
• Scorers: Stones 5', Haaland 13' (pen) 25' | Iheanacho 75'

Dean Smith's Leicester spell started with defeat to Manchester City, and context is key to the fact they posted the same xG tally.

A thunderbolt from John Stones, combined with a typical Erling Haaland brace - one of which was a penalty - put the champions into a commanding 3-0 lead at the break.

The Foxes struggled to respond, with the home side threatening on every attack as expected. With City's three coming inside the first 25 minutes, the visitors will have welcomed the half-time scoreline by that stage.

City's xG stood at 1.76 to Leicester's 0.17 as the players went off and while boosted by the Haaland penalty, it was a clear indication of just how dominant they had been.

Pep Guardiola then made the expected changes for the second. Naturally, that interrupted City's flow, but it did give Kalvin Phillips and Cole Palmer vital minutes.

It was a case of job done from one side and damage limitation from the other, as the game was being played out at a pace suitable for a Saturday evening nap.

We were briefly awoken by Leicester having their first effort on target in the 70th minute, and former City man Kelechi Iheanacho tapped in from close range shortly after for a consolation.

The goal livened the game up and questions started to creep in about a potential comeback as the Foxes sprung into life, Iheanacho striking the post in added time along with a penalty appeal that was turned away.

So, we have an xG draw, but one which in fact came about because of how dominant City had been, and how far back down the gears they could afford to move.

Tottenham 2-3 Bournemouth

• Infogol xG: 2.01 - 1.01
• Scorers: Son 14', Danjuma 88' | Vina 38', Solanke 51', Ouattara 90+5'

Dango Ouattara's 95th minute strike gave Bournemouth a huge 3-2 victory away at Tottenham.

It looked as if they'd have to settle for a point when Arnaut Danjuma struck in the 88th minute, a goal that appeared as if it was going to deny his former club the win, but late drama saw the Cherries move six points clear of the drop.

Son Heung-min had given Spurs an early lead, but efforts from Matías Viña and Dominic Solanke either side of half-time turned the game around.

Danjuma's goal would have been met with relief from the home support, but that was short-lived as Ouattara proved the hero.

Solanke's pressure led to the away side catching Spurs out, and Ouattara converted from close range as his curling effort found the bottom corner.

Aston Villa 3-0 Newcastle

• Infogol xG: 1.92 - 0.64
• Scorers: Ramsey 11', Watkins 64' 83'

Aston Villa continued their brilliant run of results with a comfortable 3-0 victory over Newcastle in Saturday's early kick-off.

Ollie Watkins' two goals alongside his assist for the opener came with England boss Gareth Southgate in attendance, who surely can't ignore calls for the striker's inclusion in his next England squad.

Watkins' remarkable form has seen 11 goals scored across his last 12 league outings. That's come from a total of 37 shots and 8.1 xG, too. Quality chances being converted showing that this return level is no fluke.

Villa's own form has now seen seven wins from their last eight, with the only time they failed to secure maximum points being the 1-1 draw away at West Ham.

Unai Emery's side have posted the higher xG tally in six of those, with the long-term ambition of European football now looking like it will be realised at Villa Park far sooner than anyone expected.

Everton 1-3 Fulham

• Infogol xG: 2.35 - 2.05
• Scorers: McNeil 35' | Reed 22', Wilson 51', James 68'

Everton's relegation fears continued with a 3-1 home defeat to Fulham.

The Toffees remarkably had four big chances in the first-half, with Neal Maupay and Demarai Gray failing to convert opportunities, alongside James Tarkowski who had the biggest of the lot (0.62 xG).

Dwight McNeil made no mistake as he struck from outside the area, but that only came after Harrison Reed had given the visitors the lead (0.34 xG).

They were punished for that wasteful showing in front of goal, with Wilson stepping up to regain the visitors' advantage early in the second-half.

Leeds loanee Daniel James helped his parent club out massively as he struck the third, with Everton left to rue those earlier missed chances in a contest that they will point to if they fail to avoid the drop at the end of the season.

Wolves 2-0 Brentford

• Infogol xG: 1.04 - 1.23
• Scorers: Costa 27', Hwang 69'

Wolves dragged themselves further away from relegation trouble with a 2-0 win over Brentford.

Diego Costa ended his 516-day wait for a goal as he struck from close range inside 30 minutes, before substitute Hwang Hee-chan secured the result with a goal shortly after coming on as a second-half substitute.

Brentford failed to create sustained opportunities to strike, although Josh Dasilva failed to convert a huge chance with the game at 0-0 (0.79 xG).

Ivan Toney was frustrated as he only saw two shots across the afternoon, those totalling 0.13 xG. That is the third time in his last five where he's failed to reach the 0.20 xG marker.

Southampton 0-2 Crystal Palace

• Infogol xG: 0.85 - 0.80
• Scorers: Eze 54', 68'

The Roy Hodgson revolution continued for Crystal Palace as a 2-0 victory over struggling Southampton made it three wins from three since the managerial switch.

Eberechi Eze followed up his strike against Leeds with both of their efforts in a game that didn't quite see the attacking chances that Palace have enjoyed in recent weeks.

Having only mustered opportunities equating to 0.12 xG in the first-half, Palace came to life in the second thanks to Eze's brace.

The first was the biggest chance of the contest, converting Jordan Ayew's redirected cross from close range - that rated at 0.57 xG.

Eze's second was a clear indicator of a player in great form. Turning his defender to open up a shooting chance, his strike from distance found the bottom corner (0.03 xG).

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