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xG Premier League Review: Gameweek 28 scorelines according to expected goals

We round up the Premier League action in a less traditional fashion, delivering the xG (expected goals) scoreline and noteworthy data points.

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

  • We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
  • This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

Arsenal 4-1 Crystal Palace

  • Infogol xG: 1.41-1.23
  • Fairness rating: 63.33
  • Scorers: Martinelli 28', Saka 43' & 74', Xhaka 55' | Schlupp 63'

Arsenal put in a clinical display to move eight points clear at the top of the Premier League heading into the international break.

The Gunners scored four times from attempts equating to 1.43 xGF, with Infogol calculating they had just a 5.7% chance of firing in a quartet.

Managerless Crystal Palace were comfortably second best throughout, only starting to pose an attacking threat after going 3-0 down.

Since the World Cup, the Eagles have returned a W1, D5, L8 record, and are firmly in a relegation battle.

Chelsea 2-2 Everton

  • Infogol xG: 2.19-1.47
  • Fairness rating: 86.20%
  • Scorers: Felix 52', Havertz (pen) 76', Doucoure 69', Simms 89'

Everton ended Chelsea’s winning run with a dramatic late equaliser from substitute Ellis Simms at Stamford Bridge to bolster their hopes of Premier League survival.

The 22-year-old outmuscled Kalidou Koulibaly to steal in and make it 2-2 in the 89th minute, after Kai Havertz’s penalty looked to have made it four victories in a row for Graham Potter’s side.

Joao Felix gave Chelsea the lead early in the second half of a match they had dominated up to that point, before being pegged back by Abdoulaye Doucoure’s headed goal.

The hosts were again left to rue missed opportunities, with their fluid attacking play blunted by a lack of killer instinct inside the box.

Aston Villa 3-0 Bournemouth

Aston Villa registered a third win in four Premier League games as they beat Bournemouth 3-0 at home courtesy of goals from Douglas Luiz, Jacob Ramsey and Emiliano Buendia.

Luiz finished from close range to put Villa ahead in the seventh minute before Ramsey and Buendia added further goals in the last 10 minutes.

Bournemouth had gone close to equalising just past the hour mark through a Philip Billing free-kick that was saved in fine style by Emiliano Martinez.

Having extended their unbeaten run, adding to the wins over Everton and Crystal Palace and a draw at West Ham, Unai Emery’s Villa moved up to 10th in the Premier League table ahead of the late game involving Chelsea.

Gary O’Neil’s Bournemouth, meanwhile, slipped a place to 19th, a point adrift of safety, having failed to further boost their survival bid after the surprise 1-0 win over Liverpool last weekend.

Something for Cherries fans to cheer was David Brooks coming on in the 79th minute for his first appearance since being diagnosed with cancer in October 2021, a moment that brought applause all around Villa Park.

Brentford 1-1 Leicester

Leicester managed to halt their rotten run of defeats as Harvey Barnes snatched a point in a 1-1 Premier League draw at Brentford.

The Foxes were staring at a sixth straight loss in all competitions, a run which has seen them slide towards the Premier League relegation zone, when Mathias Jensen fired Brentford ahead.

But Barnes showed the Bees’ defence a clean pair of heels as he raced away to score a fine second-half equaliser.

Barnes’ strike denied Brentford boss Thomas Frank a 100th win in charge, but they at least stretched their unbeaten run at home to 10 matches.

Southampton 3-3 Tottenham

  • Infogol xG: 2.67-1.74
  • Fairness rating: 83.88%
  • Scorers: Adams 46', Walcott 77', Ward Prowse 90+3'; Porro 45+1', Kane 65', Perisic 74'

Tottenham missed out on the chance to move up to third in the Premier League after James Ward-Prowse’s stoppage-time penalty earned struggling Southampton a dramatic 3-3 draw.

Spurs had looked set to clinch all three points at St Mary’s after maiden strikes by Pedro Porro and Ivan Perisic were sandwiched by Harry Kane’s 23rd goal of the campaign.

Ruben Selles’ bottom-of-the-table side had scored only twice in their previous five league appearances but showed the same fight that saw them recently take points off Chelsea and Manchester United to come back from 3-1 down to boost their survival hopes.

Ward-Prowse’s late penalty, after Pape Sarr had fouled Ainsley Maitland-Niles in the area, added to second-half efforts by Che Adams and Theo Walcott to earn Saints a share of the spoils.

Wolves 2-4 Leeds

  • Infogol xG: 2.99-1.61
  • Fairness rating: 48.94%
  • Scorers: Jonny 65' Cunha 73'; Harrison 6', Ayling 49', Kristensen 62', Rodrigo 90+7'

Leeds breathed fresh life into their survival hopes after a manic win at Wolves.

Jack Harrison, Luke Ayling, Rasmus Kristensen and Rodrigo struck to clinch a rollercoaster 4-2 victory and lift them out of the Premier League’s relegation zone.

Jonny’s long-range lob and Matheus Cunha’s first goal for Wolves gave them hope before Jonny’s late red card.

Unused substitute Matheus Nunes was also dismissed in stoppage time, with Wolves furious Rodrigo’s goal was not ruled out for a foul on Adama Traore.

Exactly 12 months ago Leeds hit back from 2-0 down to win 3-2 at Molineux thanks to Ayling’s injury-time winner.

Victory was still not straightforward this time but a frenzied win in a game which threatened to swing either way leaves Leeds 14th, just a point and a place behind their hosts with a game in hand.

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