We round up the Premier League action in a less traditional fashion, delivering the xG (expected goals) scoreline and noteworthy data points.
Manchester City 3-1 Aston Villa
- xG: 3.59-0.28
- Scorers: Rodri 4', Gundogan 39', Mahrez (pen) 45+1' | Watkins 61'
Manchester City hit back after a dismal week off the field with a commanding display on it as they overpowered Aston Villa 3-1 on Sunday.
The players responded to the furore with one of their best displays of the season, racing into a 3-0 half-time lead with goals from Rodri, Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez.
Ollie Watkins pulled one back after the break but the visitors were no match for a fired-up City at a raucous Etihad Stadium and did not threaten to get back into the game.
The result put City firmly back in the title race, just three points behind leaders Arsenal with the chance to go top when they play the Gunners on Wednesday.
Leeds 0-2 Manchester United
- xG: 1.83-1.13
- Scorers: Rashford 80', Garnacho 85'
Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho struck late goals as Manchester United won 2-0 at Roses rivals Leeds to close the gap on Premier League leaders Arsenal.
Rashford maintained his rich scoring form by heading the visitors ahead in the 80th minute and substitute Garnacho delivered a knockout blow five minutes later.
OF COURSE IT HAS TO BE RASHFORD!!!! 🔥
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) February 12, 2023
VAR checks and the goal is given ✅ pic.twitter.com/7djzmF82O4
Managerless Leeds went toe-to-toe with Erik ten Hag’s side for the second time in five days after drawing 2-2 at Old Trafford on Wednesday and will feel aggrieved to have finished the game empty-handed.
Under interim boss Michael Skubala, Leeds had United on the backfoot for prolonged spells in the second half, but failed to convert a host of chances equating to 1.83 xG and United made them pay to climb to within five points of Arsenal.
Bournemouth 1-1 Newcastle
- xG: 1.59-1.74
- Scorers: Sensei 30' | Almiron 45+2'
Newcastle dropped yet more points in their bid to finish in the top four this season, but a draw was a fair result against Bournemouth.
Both sides created two 'big chances' in what was a very even contest, but this was the Magpies fifth draw in their last six league games.
The Cherries were much better than recent showings, but again lost the xG battle, the sixth time in seven league games that has occurred.
Newcastle are going through a finishing rut currently. Since the restart, they have scored just six times in seven league games from chances equating to 13.0 xGF.
We calculate just a 5.4% chance of Eddie Howe's side hitting just six from the chances they have created. For context they had a 7% chance of scoring 19 from those same opportunities.
Leicester 4-1 Tottenham
- xG: 1.54-1.28
- Scorers: N Mendy 23', Maddison 25', Iheanacho 45+4', Barnes 81' | Bentancur 14'
Leicester came from a goal down to thrash Tottenham 4-1, though a clinical finishing display explains the emphatic scoreline.
The Foxes netted four times from chances equating to 1.54 xG, and we calculate they had just a 7.1% chance of scoring that many times from those opportunities.
After beating Manchester City last weekend, Tottenham are brought back down to earth this weekend, and their attacking process needs highlighting again.
Since the restart, Spurs have averaged just 1.13 xGF per game. That is a figure we would expect to see from a team in the bottom six.
Antonio Conte's side missed the chance to put the pressure on Newcastle in the top four race, and were instead reeled in by teams below them.
Arsenal 1-1 Brentford
- xG: 1.68-2.37
- Scorers: Trossard 66' | Toney 74'
Arsenal dropped points for the second game running after being held by Brentford at the Emirates, shipping over 2.0 xGA in front of their own fans for the very first time this season.
Despite Arsenal dominating the possession (69%) and shot counts (23-9), it was the Bees who created the better quality chances.
Arsenal have looked defensively vulnerable in two straight games now which has to be seen as a concern.
Brentford extended their unbeaten run to 10 matches with this result, and have now won the xG battle away at both Arsenal and Manchester City, which is an extraordinary feat.
They remain in the hunt for a top six berth and are posting some impressive underlying numbers.
Crystal Palace 1-1 Brighton
- xG: 0.89-2.36
- Scorers: Tomkins 69' | March 63'
Crystal Palace and Brighton played out a fourth straight 1-1 draw in meetings Selhurst Park, though the Seagulls were exceptionally unfortunate not to win.
Roberto Di Zerbi's men dominated the game, creating an abundance of chances, but failed to capitalise.
The Seagulls are one of the league's most potent attacks right now, averaging 1.86 xGF per game since the restart which is a hugely impressive figure.
Palace, despite picking up a point, continue to look more like a relegation candidate than a mid-table side.
They have now won the xG battle in just one of their eight games post-World Cup - against Bournemouth - and their attacking process is at an extremely low level (0.95 xGF per game).
Fulham 2-0 Nottingham Forest
- xG: 1.62-0.67
- Scorers: Willian 17', Solomon 88'
Fulham cruised to victory over Nottingham Forest, keeping their visitors at arm's length throughout the clash.
They limited Forest to just 0.67 xG on their way to picking up a fifth win in eight since the restart.
Marco Silva's side do appear to be improving in defence in general, allowing just 1.29 xGA per game post-World Cup compared to 2.15 pre-World Cup.
Forest were second best on the day as they suffered just their second defeat in seven.
A lack of potency in attack could become an issue, Forest averaging 1.06 xGF per game in that span.
Southampton 1-2 Wolves
- xG: 1.14-0.78
- Scorers: Alcaraz 24' | Bednarek (og) 72', Gomes 87'
- Sent off: Lemina 27'
The pressure was piled on Nathan Jones as his Southampton side were beaten 2-1 by Wolves, despite their visitors being reduced to 10-men after Saints took the lead.
Julen Lopetegui's side scored two late goals to take all three points and put more daylight between themselves and the relegation zone, while defeat leaves Southampton rooted to the foot of the table.
Jones has now lost all four of his home league games as manager and since his appointment they haven't looked threatening in attack.
Under the Welshman, Saints have averaged 1.06 xGF per game, a figure that is not likely to be good enough to fire them to safety.
West Ham 1-1 Chelsea
- xG: 1.33-1.22
- Scorers: Emerson 28' | Felix 16'
West Ham and Chelsea played out a hard-fought draw in Saturday's early game, with the 1-1 scoreline a fair reflection of the chances in the match.
The draw means the Hammers - who are in a relegation battle - are now unbeaten in three league games, with their defence looking very solid after an early-season wobble.
They have shipped just 1.35 xGA per game across their last 10 league games, and that includes trips to three of the current top four.
That bodes well for their survival chances, as that kind of defensive process is far superior to their rivals.
It was another draw for Chelsea, their third in a row, and another game in which they looked rather toothless in attack.
Since the restart, Graham Potter's side have scored just six times in eight games, but have at least looked solid at the back, conceding four times and allowing just 1.01 xGA per game.
The big-spending Blues are still a work in progress, but draws aren't enough for them given the gap to the European places.
