We round up the Champions League action in a less traditional fashion, delivering the xG (expected goals) scoreline, an Infogol fairness rating and noteworthy data points.
What are Infogol fairness ratings?
- We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
- This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.
Wednesday - Jake Osgathorpe
Dortmund 1-0 Chelsea
- Infogol xG: 1.13 - 1.92
- Fairness rating: 53.12
- Scorers: Adeyemi 63'
Chelsea have their work cut out if they are to qualify for the next round of the Champions League after losing the first leg 1-0 in Germany.
The Blues were unfortunate to come away empty handed from Signal Iduna Park, as they created plenty of good chances, but a string of good saves and poor finishing proved costly.
Based on the chances created, we calculate the Blues had an 85% chance of scoring at least once on the night.
Dortmund were clinical, scoring with their only 'big chance' of the match, but there are plenty of positives for Graham Potter's side to take into the second leg.
Club Brugge 0-2 Benfica
- Infogol xG: 0.53 - 3.11
- Fairness rating: 98.85
- Scorers: Mario (pen) 51', Neres 88'
Benfica put in an extremely dominant display in Belgium against Club Brugge, running out 2-0 winners to put one foot in the quarter-finals.
The Portuguese side, who deservedly topped a qualifying group featuring PSG and Juventus, were rampant in forward areas, racking up over 3.0 xGF, so could have won by a wider margin.
Roger Schmidt's side have been excellent in the Champions League this season, winning the xG battle in all seven matches while racking up an average of 2.29 xGF per game.
As for Brugge, well they face a huge uphill battle in the second leg in Portugal. They have failed to score in four straight UCL matches, and in four of their seven Champions League outings, they have generated an xGF total of less than 0.55.
Tuesday - Liam Kelly
AC Milan 1-0 Tottenham
- Infogol xG: 2.08-0.57
- Fairness rating: 98.71
- Scorers: Díaz 7'
Tottenham will have to do things the hard way if they want to progress in the Champions League after they lost 1-0 at AC Milan in the first leg of their last-16 tie.
It was an insipid display at San Siro by Antonio Conte’s side and they were unable to recover from Brahim Diaz’s early opener.
They could have been returning to London with a heavier deficit, with Ivan Perisic having to clear off the line and then Malick Thiaw sending a free header wide (0.54 xG) as the hosts finished strongly.
Conte’s men, who have been chronically inconsistent this season against a backdrop of injuries to key players, will have to be much better in the return leg in three weeks if they are to have any hope of overturning Milan’s lead.
AC Milan 1-0 Tottenham
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) February 14, 2023
xG: 2.08-0.57
Spurs have a deficit to overcome in the second leg.#ACMTOT | #COYS pic.twitter.com/vCvULDZ6X2
PSG 0-1 Bayern Munich
- Infogol xG: 1.03-1.12
- Fairness rating: 71.81
- Scorers: Coman 53'
Kingsley Coman fired Bayern Munich to a 1-0 Champions League first-leg win at Paris St Germain.
The former PSG youngster volleyed a deserved winner for the German champions, who dominated until the latter stages when Kylian Mbappe came off the bench.
Mbappe, a substitute after recovering from injury, twice had the ball in the net late on as PSG rallied, but both goals were ruled out for offside.
Bayern’s Benjamin Pavard will miss the second leg after he was sent off for a second booking for bringing down Lionel Messi in stoppage time.
PSG 0-1 Bayern Munich
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) February 14, 2023
xG: 1.03-1.12
The French side have work to do in Munich.#PSGFCB pic.twitter.com/piYsKVpjoH
