Football tips: Premier League weekend best bets
Jake Pearson takes an early look at the weekend's Premier League action, determining which sides are worth backing sooner rather than later, in order to beat the market.
Football betting tips: Premier League
0.5pts Leeds to beat Manchester United at 5/1 (General)
1pt Leicester v Wolves to draw at 3/1 (Bet365)
Manchester United v Leeds tips
A recurring theme we will be drawing upon in this column will be to identify opportunities to take on the traditional 'big six' (Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City and Tottenham) when at home.
That is often when the biggest price movements occur, and backing against these teams last season would have seen you find plenty of expected value (EV) and in turn a huge amount of profit (around 55 points).
What is expected value (EV)?
- Expected value, or EV, is the amount a player can expect to win or lose per bet if the same game was played over and over again with the same odds.
- Positive EV (+) represents a long-term result, while negative EV (-) represents a loss.
Manchester United finished the 2020/21 campaign in second position in the Premier League, and a lot of that was down to their exemplary away form, racking up 43 from a possible 57 points on the road, second only to Manchester City.
However, their form at Old Trafford left plenty to be desired, boasting just the sixth-best record in the division.
Had you backed them in every home game last season, you would have lost over five units to a one unit level stake.
Despite their poor home record throughout the season however, United were still being overestimated by the bookmakers’ opening prices, and in the 19 matches they played at Old Trafford, they saw their price drift on 10 occasions.
In stark contrast, Leeds United found themselves repeatedly underestimated on the road last season.
LEEDS saw their price shorten in 11 of their 19 away matches last term, including at Old Trafford, and a price of 5/1 for them to win their opening match of the 2021/22 campaign may not still be there come the weekend.
Leicester v Wolves tips
A theme worth exploring when trying to beat the market is backing the draw.
Matches not involving the traditional 'big six' have seen the draw price shorten from the opening price to the closing price on a consistent basis for the last three seasons.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Leicester 3/5 | Draw 14/5 | Wolves 19/4
A quick glance at the betting history for Leicester last season might lead you to believe that they are often underestimated when playing at the King Power, but when you remove matches against the 'big six' from any analysis the figures alter.
In fact backing Leicester at home when not playing one of England’s elite would have seen you give up over -2% EV.
But backing Leicester to draw each of their home matches last term would have seen you beat the price more often than not - even more so had you backed them to draw their home matches against teams not in the 'big six'.
Similarly, backing Wolves to draw each of their away matches last season would have seen you identify value, but take the 'big six' out of it and that would more than double.
A top price of 3/1 for the DRAW makes appeal and could be long gone before Saturday afternoon.
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