Brazil take on Croatia in the quarter finals of the World Cup. James Cantrill highlights six stats to include in a BuildABet.
- Casemiro 2+ shots
- Raphinha 2+ tackles
- Josip Juranovic 3+ tackles
- Luka Modric 3+ tackles
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What does the Infogol expected goals (xG) model predict?
- Predicted % chance: Croatia 16% | Draw 24% | Brazil 60%
- Over/under 2.5 goals: Over 44% | Under 56%
- Both teams to score (BTTS): Yes 43% | No 55%
Casemiro 2+ shots
Casemiro, Brazil's lynchpin, is more renowned for his work out of possession.
He tops his nations charts for defensive output, averaging 2.7 tackles, two interceptions and 1.7 fouls per game in Qatar.
Something that has gone slightly under the radar is his offensive capabilities.
Manchester United's midfielder crisp strike against Switzerland proved to be the match winner, and he has averaged two shots a game.
Raphinha 2+ tackles
Domestically, Raphinha has averaged just 0.70 tackles for Barcelona yet for his country, he has averaged 2.67 per start, racking up four against Serbia and three v South Korea.
The South American winger will have the wily Ivan Perisic and Mateo Kovacic to content with.
The Croatian pair have been dispossessed a combined total of 25 times, that is an average of over six per game!
Josip Juranovic 3+ tackles
When facing Canarinha, opponents rack up the tackles.
Serbia had 24, the Swiss and South Korea completed 21 and Cameroon hit 22.
As a team, Croatia have averaged 16.3 in Qatar but they should smash this tally against the Brazilians.
Opponent right backs have averaged 3.67 per game against Brazil. The Vatreni's RB, Josip Juranovic, is not renowned for tackles but think he looks set for a busy afternoon opposing Vinícius Júnior.
Luka Modric 3+ tackles
Only Mateo Kovacic (2.8) has averaged more tackles per game for Zlatko Dalic's side this World Cup than Luka Modric (2.3).
The midfield maestro only completed one against the low blocks of Japan and Morocco but racked up three against Canada, and four against Belgium.
Croatia are expected to deploy a 4-3-3 formation, which would see Modric covering Junior, Neymar and engaging in the midfield duel against former teammate Casemiro.
Cameroon and Switzerland deployed similar formations, and their right sided midfielders, Pierre Kunde and Remo Freuler, both hit this line.
Marcelo Brozovic to be carded
In his two appearances, Neymar has drawn a staggering 12 fouls, that is an average of six per game making him the most fouled player in Qatar.
In those two starts against Serbia and South Korea, three of the four central midfielders he faced were carded, with Sasa Lukic, Nemanja Gudelj and Jung Woo-Young all going into the book.
With that in mind, Marcelo Brozovic's price for a card certainly appeals. Inter's midfielder has already notched up five in twice as many domestic appearances this campaign.
Dejan Lovren 1+ tackles
Only one of the nine central defenders to face Brazil has failed to complete at least one tackle; Switzerland's Nico Elvedi.
Those CB's have averaged 2.6 per game, Serbia's Nikola Milenkovic hitting eight, and it is no wonder why with the wealth of attacking talent at Tite's disposal.
Purely because he has the higher tackles per game average, Dejan Lovren is the tout here.
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (08/12/22)
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