Football betting tips: Women's Euro
1pt Lauren Hemp to score anytime at 14/5 (Betway)
Most of the field has been cut down and we’re down to the last four still standing at the Euros with holders England set to square off with the lowest ranked nation (#13) Italy on Tuesday evening in Geneva.
It will be Italy’s third game at the Stade de Genève, following a group stage draw against Portugal and last gasp winner against Norway in the quarters but a first time to Geneva for England who’ve played mist of their games, including their lengthy quarter-final, in Zurich.
And in a game where they’ll be the underdogs, Italy will look for any narrow advantage they can find, even if it is just familiarity with the stadium.
One for the history books!
— ITV Football (@itvfootball) July 16, 2025
The moment Cristiana Girelli sent Italy to a Euros semi-final for the first time in 28 years 🙌 pic.twitter.com/XZfgmlYG83
Two teams who rarely take to the pitch together, the recent head-to-head between the Lionesses and Azzurre is as brief as it is one-sided, with England winning two friendlies in the last two years, including a 5-1 last February.
For the last time Italy bested England, you have to go back 13 years to a March friendly, however, with just two previous meetings at Euros between them (in 2009 and 1987), it’s Italy who can claim two victories.
What are the best bets?
Given a scare against Sweden in the quarters, forcing them to dig deep and find two late goals to take the match to extra time and eventually penalties, it’s safe to expect a strong response from England.
Although they ended up with an extra 30 minutes in their legs, Sarina Wiegman continues to boast a team with incredible attacking depth that has made a habit of bouncing back stronger and they will likely fire out of the blocks against Italy.
There is also added good news for England with all reports suggesting captain Leah Williamson who had to come off against Sweden with a knock, will be fit to start tomorrow.
For the Azzurre, they’ll be walking a fine line, able to play without pressure in their quarter against Norway, drawing out their best football this summer, being just one win away from the final (their first final in 28 years) could once again grip the team with nerves and invite errors on the pitch.
Having clashed with Spain in the group stage (and with recent wins over both Spain and Germany), if Italy can keep their nerves in check, they’ll feel that they’ve already faced the toughest team at this Euros and that they’ll have as good a chance of reaching the final at the Lionesses.
But what can we expect from the first semi-final? Well, England are unsurprisingly the big favourites to win priced 1/2 for a win in 90 minutes, whilst Italy are at 17/4, with a draw paying 3/1.
Michelle Agyemang - the right place at the right time ✨ pic.twitter.com/Sh14g48GN6
— ITV Football (@itvfootball) July 17, 2025
And it has to be said, it seems an almighty task for Italy, so I’m saying England are going to win and make their second successive Euros final.
Again, that means that value becomes a little harder to find. Despite having to play that extra half an hour last week, I still don’t expect Wiegman to make any changes to her starting XI, and I can see England hitting the ground running after being put on the back foot so early in their last game.
So I’m looking at a LAUREN HEMP TO SCORE at 14/5, as Hemp netted a brace last time out against the same opponent.
Whether or not the game stays close into the last knockings or not, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chloe Kelly enter the fray in the second half with England’s hero from the quarters currently priced at 13/10 to nab an anytime assist.
I’d expect Lauren James to be involved throughout and to give the Italian defenders plenty to worry about, with the quick-footed attacker returning odds of 15/8 to be fouled three of more times.
I wouldn’t be too surprised to see James on the scoresheet either (although it is tricky trying to nail down who might actually score for England as we’ve seen England players sharing the responsibility all summer) and would be inclined to include James in a 'Both to Score' bet with Italy’s talismanic captain Cristiana Girelli, priced at 10/1.
After a veritable goal-fest on the last group match-day, we saw far fewer balls hitting the back of the net through the quarter finals but I can still see this ending 2-1, which makes a bet of over 2.5 goals at 4/6 not too bad, and of course, you already know I’m going to say it: both teams to score at 8/11.
Girelli has been the danger woman for Italy, scoring three of their five this Euros, including the all important brace against Norway, and although she’s currently pulling odds of 3/1 to score anytime, I expect her to be tightly marked all game and would be looking at Sofia Cantore to score or assist at 2/1 instead.
Odds correct at 1620 BST (21/07/25)
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