Sophie Lawson's group stage previews returned +17.13pts profit. The quarter-finals begin on Wednesday night where Norway face Italy.
Football betting tips: Women's Euro
2pts Both Teams To Score at 10/11 (General)
Norway vs Italy
- Kick-off: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
- TV: BBC1
- Live odds, form and stats
Half the teams have already gone home, cutting the field from 16 to eight, which can only mean we’re looking ahead to the imminent quarter-finals and, just like during the group stage, I’m still going to be doing my best to predict the future and steer you towards the best bets.
Starting, as Maria von Trapp always taught me, at the very beginning with Quarter Final #1, the first of the quarter that kicks of on Wednesday evening and sees the Group A winners Norway take on the runners up from Group B: Italy.
Be forewarned, this is the one quarter final I’ve been the least looking forward to trying to predict and pick apart what could happen in Geneva.
Starting as we so often do with the historical head-to-head, in 20 meetings, Norway have come out on top 13 times to Italy’s three, but wait for the caveat: most of the meetings of the two came when Norway were still one of Europe’s bigger powers and Italy were in decline.
If we just focus on their last three meetings, which were played over the last three and a half years, we find two draws (a 1-1 and a 0-0) in qualification for this Euros as well as a 2-1 friendly win for Italy, which came just 25 years after their last victory over the Norwegians.
Gaupset ➡️ Maanum 😮💨
— Match of the Day (@BBCMOTD) July 10, 2025
Frida Maanum with a lovely finish for Norway to make it 3-1.#WEuro2025 pic.twitter.com/fdqr7Li3cs
If you’ve been paying attention to this Euros, you’ll probably already know why I don’t want to say which way this game will go, which I will phrase politely as: both teams have been under performing.
Norway have looked uncertain, falling into periods of anonymity during their games, benefiting from an own goal in each of their 2-1 wins before making life hard for themselves in a dead rubber to come out 4-3 victors.
Similarly, Le Azzurre have been playing within themselves, looking nervous, more concerned with not doing the wrong thing rather than doing the right thing.
Although both have been struggling to make it out of the group stage at European Championships for the last few editions, Norway come into the game with more in the way of recent tournament knockout experience and boast two game-changers in their squad in Ada Hegerberg and Caroline Graham Hansen.
However, the odds setters have placed Italy as favourites to win in 90 minutes, pricing Le Azzurre at 7/5 to Norway’s 21/10, which is the same price as a draw.
You’ll probably find me saying this four times this week but, although knockout rounds usually bring about more cautious football in teams, very few teams left in the tournament have shown reliable defensive nous, so we might not see much of a difference from the first two group match days.
Although I do worry about Italy running into nerves around the occasion, I have to side with the odds makers and say I can see an Italy win on the cards, and dare I say it, within 90 minutes, but do still expect Norway to find the back of the net during the game.
Arianna Caruso breaks the deadlock with a lovely finish to give Italy the lead in Sion.#WEuros2025 #WomensEuros pic.twitter.com/mjccEpRMwu
— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) July 3, 2025
Of course, I have to tell you that you can find BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at 10/11, and that Frida Maanum - who was on the scoresheet twice last time out and can thwack a ball from range - is priced at 23/10 to score or assist.
Norway boss, Gemma Grainger used the last game in the group to rotate her squad a little and rest her front three, bringing in young star Signe Gaupset, given the 20-year-old bagged a brace and netted a pair of assists in the 4-3 win, I expect Grainger to reward her performance with the start against Italy, and she is currently priced at 5/2 to score or assist.
For Italy, well they can’t win without scoring, can they? Only managing one goal in each of their three group games (from three different scorers), Italy have at least been producing good chances but running into some strong saves too, but as ever it’s Cristiana Girelli who provides the touch of magic for the Azzurre which is probably why she’s priced so poorly at 9/4 to score anytime.
A live-wire in the Italian midfield, Emma Severini was heavily involved in Italy’s first two games and at 3/1 to score or be carded, which is the one player bet worth giving consideration too.
For the combined bet I’m looking at for this one, I really am putting all my eggs in one carbonara and suggesting Italy scores 1+ goals & 5+ Italy corners priced at 6/4.
Odds correct at 1000 BST (15/07/25)
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