Liam Kelly previews Wolves' hosting of Southampton on Saturday, picking out a best bet. He's expecting the home side to test the Saints often at Molineux.
2pts Wolves 13+ total shots at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Wolves look to continue their good start to 2022, following up their excellent win over Manchester United with an easy advancement to the fourth round of the FA Cup, beating Sheffield United 3-0 last Sunday.
Opponents Southampton won their rescheduled game against Brentford on Tuesday night in style, hammering the Bees 4-1 in a solid performance at both ends of the pitch (xG: SOU 1.97 - 0.82 BRE).
The general 6/5 available to back Wolves to win the match may have made more appeal before Ralph Hasenhüttl's side put in that impressive display. Now, another odds-against looks the value bet.
WOLVES to attempt 13+ TOTAL SHOTS is the selection of choice, on offer at 11/10 on Sky Bet.
One of the standout stats in Wolves' win at Old Trafford was the shot total that Bruno Lage's men recorded, taking 19 shots in the 1-0 away victory — 15 of which came in the first half alone.
FT: Manchester United 0-1 Wolves (xG: 0.85 - 1.00)
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) January 3, 2022
A total of 19 shots for the visitors and Joao Moutinho's goal gives Bruno Lage's side all three points at Old Trafford. pic.twitter.com/5Y8g4qYZRu
The Old Gold should be given a little more credit for their endeavour than the simple goals totals tell us, too, settling any worries that Wolves are the same defensive side that they were under Nuno Espírito Santo.
Despite an average of just 1.47 actual goals per game in the Premier League this season, Wolves matches average 2.56 expected goals (xG) per game.
If we remove games against Liverpool and Manchester City, Wolves take 14 shots per game on average in the Premier League at Molineux, and come into this match-up in maybe the best form of the season thus far.
Southampton, on the other hand, are a little vulnerable on the road, allowing 21 goals in 10 matches from an average of 1.80 expected goals against (xGA) per game.
A total of 13+ shots conceded would have landed in 11 of Southampton's 20 league fixtures this term, too, making the odds-against available even more intriguing.
Let's hope Wolves continue to view their recent success through the prism of not being shot-shy.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-0 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (12/01/22)
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