Saturday’s late night Premier League slot is filled with Wolves and Arsenal as the pair duel at the Molineux. James Cantrill previews the game, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (Paddy Power)
The visitors will likely start the fixture in second place, with the bookies making a Manchester City victory over Brentford 87% likely in the early kick off.
Psychologically, it will be pivotal for Mikel Arteta’s men to head into the break at the helm of the division as they target their first league title since 2003.
His side have been formidable recently, their 2-0 victory at Stamford Bridge one of the Gunners most complete performances of Arteta’s tenure.
The North Londoners dominated, perfectly executing their game plan, nullifying any threat of Graham Potter's tactically fluid Blues, best encapsulated by the xG of 0.30- 2.27.
That victory followed their 5-0 thrashing on basement boys Nottingham Forest and means that Arsenal have scored seven in their last two games without conceding, only conceding once since their five goal thriller with Liverpool.
Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Saturday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Wolves 21/4 | Draw 10/3 | Arsenal 1/2
Arteta’s side are two different entities at the Emirates compared to on the road.
In the capital, they have taken maximum points from six games, scoring 3.2 goals and shipping 1.2 per game.
On their travels, they do not boast a 100% record with both their GF and GA averages dropping to 1.7 and 0.60 respectively.
Unsurprisingly, this just affirms that away from home their fixtures are much more closely contested which is part of the reason why I am siding with UNDER 2.5 GOALS here.
This bet has landed in each of Arsenal’s last three EPL away games and they have generated an xG of 1.5 per game in their league trips this season.
This bet has also paid out in 57% of Wolves league games this season, making the 11/10 available obvious value.
Crucially though, the Wanderers clashes with the big boys are always tight.
Last campaign, they more than held their own against the division's tradition ‘big six,’ securing a result in a quarter of their games and narrowly losing 1-0 in half with under's clicking in 75% of these matches.
In fact, they only lost by more than two goals in one of their 12 games against last season's top six.
Comfortable 3-0 victories for Man City and Chelsea have threatened to buck this trend this campaign.
With under's paying out in 60% of their games with the big six since the start of last season, I think the angle remains the value for the visit of Arsenal, especially considering the visitors' stringent away performances.
Wolves v Arsenal best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (Paddy Power)
Score prediction: Wolves 0-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1810 GMT (10/11/22)
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