Wolfsburg v Sevilla tips: Champions League preview and best bets
Two sides performing well in their domestic leagues meet on Wednesday night and Tom Carnduff is backing a goalscorer at big odds.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Diego Carlos to score anytime at 18/1 (William Hill)
A game that has the potential to be a pretty decent one for the neutral - Wolfsburg welcome Sevilla with both teams going well in their domestic leagues.
Wolfsburg sit third in the Bundesliga with four wins from their six outings while Sevilla are third in La Liga - another interesting coincidence is that Infogol's model based on performance has both sitting fifth instead.
The worry for Wolfsburg will be how results have dropped off following three consecutive wins to kick off their season - one of which was a 1-0 success over RB Leipzig. Since then, it's just one win from five including defeat to Hoffenheim last time out.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: BT Sport Extra
Wolfsburg 15/8 | Draw 9/4 | Sevilla 29/20
Infogol rates this match at a 51% chance of there being three or more goals so anything even money or above is seen as a decent bet on this selection. There could be a few goals in it despite both being involved in games that went under 2.5 on Matchday 1.
I'm willing to be ambitious though and play to the statistics when it comes to backing a goalscorer. Sevilla have struck from set-pieces this season while Wolfsburg have conceded from these situations - it does create interest in one away goalscorer.
At 18/1, DIEGO CARLOS TO SCORE ANYTIME looks a value play based on his early season showings. He isn't a prolific scorer but this could be a game that is suited to him in an attacking sense.
Wolfsburg may have only conceded five in the Bundesliga this season but two of those have been from set-pieces. For Sevilla, no side in Spain's top-flight has scored more than they have from corners and free-kicks so far.
Why Carlos? He's averaging 0.8 shots per game in the league so far and also had one in the 1-1 draw with Salzburg in their last European encounter. His La Liga xG is already a decent enough 0.44 while he underperformed this metric last season - he could have easily had a few more goals based on chances.
The same can be said in the Champions League where he failed to score despite having 12 shots in eight outings. A regular in this Sevilla side - his Champions League xG per 95 minutes average was 0.17.
Repeat numbers this season should see him have one or two on the tally and this looks like the game where that could happen.
Wolfsburg v Sevilla best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Diego Carlos to score anytime at 18/1 (William Hill)
Score prediction: Wolfsburg 1-2 Sevilla (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1430 BST (28/09/21)
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