Nobody gave Luton Town a chance, but then nobody ever does.
Luton were relegated out of the Football League on April 13 2009. For a club that hadn’t been outside the top three divisions since 1920 it was a disastrous new nadir, and yet they stayed in the fifth tier for five long seasons, slogging it out until promotion finally came in 2014.
When another promotion came four years later, nobody thought Luton would survive long in League One. When they immediately won the title, nobody thought they could tread water in the Championship. But it only took three years to make the play-offs, and a fourth to achieve the unthinkable.
OK, fine, you can get from the Conference National to the Premier League in nine years. But there was no way Luton Town, with its 11,500 capacity stadium and its miniscule budget, stood a chance of competing in the Premier League.
Being so consistently underestimated is Luton Town’s superpower. This, surely, is the explanation for how they’ve managed to win 11 points from their last six Premier League games to move out of the bottom three, looking for all the world like a side who belong in the top tier of English football.
Premier League relegation 23/24 odds (via Sky Bet)
- Burnley - 1/8
- Luton - 11/8
- N Forest - 13/8
- Everton - 3/1
- C Palace - 13/2
- Brentford - 7/1
Odds correct at 0940 (08/02/24)
Hatters belong
That underestimation is tactical as much as it is psychological. Season previews consistently patronised Luton as a throwback to a bygone era, as if they had risen through the divisions by chance rather than by skill, and although Rob Edwards doesn’t exactly try to emulate Manchester City his side is nevertheless unfairly tarnished as old-school and ugly.
It took a little while for these players, by and large the same group that won promotion in 2022/23, to get up to speed; to feel as though they deserve to be at this level and to believe in their chances of survival. At the end of October, ten matches into their inaugural Premier League campaign, Luton had five points and frankly looked a little out of their depth.
But that 1-1 draw against Liverpool at the beginning of November was a turning point, a moment to reflect on their journey and to puff out their chests. Since then, the tactical dexterity of last season has returned – and everyone has been proved wrong.
Luton are not just a long-ball team, nor are they an out-and-out defensive side. Granted they are more pragmatic in their approach than most clubs, but only to the same extent as Sean Dyche’s Everton, who are also keen on exploiting longer passes to a target man but who, like Luton, are a modern club in most regards.
The Hatters are aggressive and intelligent counter-pressers, and despite being forced to sit back for long periods of matches they are a proactive side when out of possession, snapping into pressing traps that take their opponents by surprise.
Barkley's brilliance key
But it’s what they do on the ball that really catches people out.
It is no coincidence that improving performances around the time of that hosting of Liverpool coincided with Ross Barkley finding his feet. Barkley, moved into a deeper midfield position than he has occupied since his early days at Everton, has emerged as the star of this Luton side.
He is a leader, both in experience and technical orchestration, pulling the strings from the base of midfield but also, crucially, taking risks.
Barkley is the assertive forward passer Luton have needed to turn percentage football into something more aesthetically suited to Premier League level, and in every explosive Luton performance you can find Barkley splitting open midfields, boldly dribbling forward, or spraying diagonals with the playmaking qualities of a young Steven Gerrard.
Edwards’ 3-4-2-1 formation certainly helps Barkley, who has two inside forwards dropping into the half-spaces to pass to (Carlton Morris in particular has done so superbly, hitting five goals and four assists so far) as well as marauding wing-backs to find.
Wing-backs shining
Alfie Doughty and Chiedozie Ogbene, ghosting forward on either flank, have been breakout stories, the former already amassing five assists and the latter drawing plaudits for his pace and directness, with Jamie Carragher even comparing him to Thierry Henry on Monday night.
That’s probably a touch too far, but it’s understandable that pundits are getting overexcited by the Luton phenomenon emerging over these last few weeks.
When you add to the mix a clinical striker in Elijah Adebayo, who’s scored nine Premier League goals already this season, and a back three that has rallied superbly in the absence of their leader Tom Lockyer, it’s easy to see why Luton suddenly look well-placed to stay up.
Survival would arguably be the shock story of the 2023/24 season – for neutrals anyway. By now Luton supporters are used to being written off and they’re used to witnessing miracles.
They host bottom club Sheffield United this weekend on a run of one defeat in nine in all competitions and looking for their fourth win in their last seven Premier League matches.
Most of us expect them to do it because, finally, nobody underestimates Luton anymore.
They’ve been doing this kind of thing consistently for ten years. It’s about time we caught up.
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