Chelsea's Kepa replacement: Dean Henderson, Nick Pope, Andre Onana, Jan Oblak discussed by Football Critic's Paul Macdonald

Remember the days when goalkeepers were asked to stop the ball going into the goal?

Good times. These days, the man wearing the gloves needs to be just as good with the ball at his feet, with the likes of Ederson and Manuel Neuer performing as auxiliary deep-lying playmakers when their teams construct attacks.

However, there has to be a balance.

Shots still need to be saved, after all, and as it turns out Chelsea’s Kepa isn’t particularly good at it.

Just two years on from making him the most expensive goalkeeper in the world, Frank Lampard has reached the conclusion that, unless the ball is directed straight at him, Kepa can’t keep it out. His 1.7 saves per 90 minutes is the lowest of any keeper in the Premier League, while his 1.4 goals conceded P90 places him distinctly in the bottom half.

And then we can look at his post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed - this statistic basically gathers the likelihood of a shot going in based on where in the goal it ends up. If it trickles into the goalkeeper’s arms, it will have a low number, while if it is going towards the top corner, the expected goals total is higher.

If a goalkeeper has a positive number here, it means he saves more goals than he reasonably would be expected to. Top of the list? Martin Dubravka, with +10. Kepa? -9.9, the worst in the Premier League by a considerable distance. In short, nowhere near good enough.

So what does Lampard do now? He is very much of the mindset of building from the back and having his goalkeeper involved in the build-up - Kepa’s average pass length is the third lowest in the division behind Alisson and Ederson, while only the same duo play less passes over the distance of 40 yards. But he wouldn’t mind a save or two.

Nick Pope has emerged as a potential target, as, to a lesser degree, has Dean Henderson. Both men - arguably duelling for the England #1 jersey due to Jordan Pickford’s inadequate form - are infinitely superior in terms of basic goalkeeping than poor Kepa, saving more, conceding less, though Henderson’s post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed is much better than Pope’s. In any case, from a basic goalkeeping skill standpoint, both would be an upgrade.

But in Burnley and Sheffield United, they play in teams with a different passing profile to Chelsea. Both hit almost double the long passes Kepa does, with a vastly inferior completion rate. Their average pass length (Pope 54.4 yards, Henderson 58.7 yards) is double the distance Kepa usually passes, while the % of passes that go ‘long’ - ie beyond 40 yards - is 73 and 77% respectively - Kepa is just 28%.

It’s not to say that Pope and Henderson can’t pass the ball as Lampard would want him to, it’s just that they haven’t done so this season, and with Pope in particular being 28, he’s probably too old to learn this style of play. Henderson is more interesting - his goals conceded P90 of 0.9 is a superb record - but it seems highly unlikely that Manchester United would sanction a deal, with David de Gea offering his own problems.

Neither seem optimal, though given Chelsea’s apparent desperation, they can’t be ruled out. What about further afield?

Andre Onana’s time at Ajax has seemingly come to an end, with a tacit agreement in place that he can leave the club this summer if the correct offer comes in. Ajax’s style of play is clearly one to build as Lampard would like to do, and he’s extremely comfortable on the ball as a result.

His 2.1 saves P90 and 0.90 goals conceded P90 is the type of assured record you’d expect in a team that largely dominates most of their matches, but the Eredivisie remains a significant step up in class for all positions. With Hakim Ziyech already arriving, would Chelsea wish to integrate two players from this level at the same time?

And then there’s Jan Oblak. There’s very little to say about the Slovenian other than, pound-for-pound, he’s probably the most consistent goalkeeper in the world alongside Alisson at this current moment. His 0.7 goals conceded P90 is second only to Thibaut Courtois in La Liga and he recorded a huge 17 clean sheets, stats that would make Lampard drool in comparison to his own shot-stopper.

But Lampard also needs to be realistic. Atletico Madrid’s well-drilled, supremely organised defence offer a protection that Chelsea’s unit just can’t at the moment; Oblak faces a post-shot expected goal per shot on target of just 0.22 - the lowest of any team in La Liga. This means, simply, that the shots he faces are restricted to places on the goal he would be massively favourite to save. This is down to the defence as much as anything - Kepa, by comparison, faces shots on target that have a 0.35 xG - 1.5 times more likely to go in that Oblak faces.

So Oblak is good, but he’s looked after by his back four and Diego Simeone. Furthermore, he would command a gigantic fee, likely one that would eclipse what was spent on Kepa. Chelsea are obviously keen to spend but how far are they willing to go? With left-back still a concern, central defence far from decided and Kai Havertz - another £75-80m at least - still on the agenda, Oblak just seems too rich for this summer.

So it’s clear why Lampard is nervous. He’s lost faith in his No. 1, but no obvious target with a reasonable price tag seems available. What odds Willy Caballero lines up when the season starts?

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