Three wins on the bounce have seen Newcastle go four points clear of the drop. Joe Rindl has a best bet as they face high-flying West Ham.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Under 2.5 goals at 21/20 (Unibet, Bet Victor)
Newcastle United were staring down the barrel back in mid-December, three points from safety after a 4-0 home defeat to Manchester City on 19 December.
A couple of months later and St. James’ Park is a place transformed after a solid transfer window and three important wins over Leeds United, Everton and most recently against Aston Villa.
Newcastle were gritty and determined, with new signing Kieran Trippier - who would later limp off with an injury - the scorer of the game’s only goal.
At this stage of the season, points on the board are crucial. Despite only racking up an xG of 0.53 against Villa, Newcastle held on to go four points clear of the drop zone.
With the three teams below managing just nine wins from 68 league games between them this season, a gap of four will seem like a chasm to Watford, Norwich and Burnley supporters.
It ain’t over until it’s over though, and West Ham away could, and probably should, halt Newcastle’s impressive recent run.
The Magpies have tasted victory just once on the road this term, while fifth-placed West Ham are unbeaten in their last four and are coming off the high of their very late equaliser against Leicester last weekend.
Still, there are some reasons to be hopeful. The Hammers have yet to lose since their mid-season break, but their manner of performances have hardly blown opponents away.
A Declan Rice goal after a mazy individual run saved West Ham from arguably the greatest FA Cup shock in the Premier League era against Kidderminster Harriers with seconds remaining.
For long periods they looked uninspired in a forgettable 1-0 win over strugglers Watford (xG: 1.11-0.33) while against Leicester in a 2-2 draw, the stats suggest they were second-best, losing the expected goals battle 1.43-0.81.
West Ham are 20 points ahead of Newcastle for a reason. They have played some brilliant football this term and have a bucketful of impressive wins against Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Manchester City and Manchester United in all competitions this season.
Looking at the form guides though I think this game will be very competitive.
Newcastle double chance is a little too short at 5/4 considering all the visitors’ wins have come against teams in the bottom six.
Instead the value is in the unders market with UNDER 2.5 GOALS at 21/20 with Unibet and Bet Victor.
Under 2.5 goals have been scored in three of West Ham's last six outings in all competitions, while it’s a bet that has come through in five of Newcastle's last six in the league and cup.
The underlying data is on our side too, West Ham’s last three league games have seen an xG total fewer than 2.24. For Newcastle it's happened in two of their last three outings.
It may seem an odd punt when looking at the league table, but this match should be a tense, tight affair.
West Ham v Newcastle best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Under 2.5 goals at 21/20 (Unibet, Bet Victor)
Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (17/02/21)
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