West Bromwich Albion and Norwich City meet in what virtually equates to a Sky Bet Championship play-off eliminator on Saturday teatime. Michael Beardmore provides his best bets.
Football betting tips: Championship
1pt 7+ West Brom corners at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Over 5.5 Norwich corners at 7/4 (Boyle Sports)
Drama, nerves and tension await teatime viewers on Saturday night as West Bromwich Albion welcome Norwich City to the Sky Bet Championship play-off last chance saloon.
By the time they kick off, both sides will know the size of the task ahead of them, given the majority of their top-six rivals will already have completed their weekend fixtures.
As of time of writing, West Brom, in ninth, are two points off sixth place and Norwich a point further behind in 11th – but that gap will surely have increased before the action gets under way here.
It’s simply a must-win match for both – with the sobering thought that even victory might not be enough in the grand scheme of things given neither side holds their play-off destiny in their own hands.
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
West Brom 21/20 | Draw 13/5 | Norwich 12/5
Carlos Corberan has worked miracles to transform the Baggies from relegation candidates – they were 23rd when he took over – to promotion contenders but they have dipped at the wrong time.
Taking nine points from the last 24 available has damaged their chances but they are arguably in better shape than Norwich, who have collected just seven points during that same timeframe.
Gun to the head, I’d be backing Albion but the manner of their back-to-back defeats by Sunderland and Sheffield United is concerning and it’s advisable to look elsewhere.
Fortunately, the corner markets provide us an ideal route to do so – because no team has won more home corners than West Brom's 179 this season and no side has earned more away than Norwich's 150, both 20 ahead of the next highest.
The aforementioned game state – must-win – is also important here although it comes with a caveat, namely the side chasing the match is perhaps likeliest to rack up the most corners and we don’t know which that will be.
The possibility of one side scoring early and sitting back leaves me wary of backing the overall corner market which has a high line – instead I think it’s worth splitting stakes between home and away corner tallies. This provides profit if either lands but there is also the added bonus both could come in if it’s as end-to-end as a must-win game can be.
The Baggies are averaging 8.14 corners per home game yet we can get 13/8 with Sky Bet on 7+ WEST BROM CORNERS – in 22 home league matches this term, they’ve reached that line 15 times.
The Canaries, meanwhile, average 6.82 corners per away game but Boyle Sports offers 7/4 on OVER 5.5 NORWICH CORNERS – a line they have reached in 14 of 22 games on the road this season.
Both bets should be closer to evens on the stats before we even factor in the game state. In a match that is tough to predict on form lines, it makes sense to back each side's strengths, given they sit first and second in the Championship corner standings.
West Brom v Norwich score prediction and best bets
- 7+ West Brom corners at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
- Over 5.5 Norwich corners at 7/4 (Boyle Sports)
Score prediction: West Brom 2-1 Norwich (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct 1630 BST (27/04/23)
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