Free betting tips: Israel v Scotland, Wales v Finland - Nations League best bets and preview
Scotland are in Israel and Wales host Finland in their deciding Nations League games on Wednesday.
Recommended bets
1pt Israel and Scotland to draw at 19/8
1pt Eran Zahavi to score anytime at 2/1
1pt Eran Zahavi to score first at 5/1
1pt Under 1.5 goals in Finland v Wales at 7/4
1pt Finland to beat Wales at 17/5
1pt Finland to beat Wales 1-0 at 9/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Israel v Scotland
- 7.45pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match odds: Home 17/10 | Draw 11/5 | Away 8/5
Despite defeat by Slovakia, which ended their nine-game unbeaten run, Scotland go into their final Nations League fixture knowing victory will see them promoted to the top tier of the competition.
They sit a point clear of Czech Republic at the top of Group B2, so need only match their result to achieve promotion.
It would cap quite the international fortnight for Steve Clarke's team after their penalty shootout win over Serbia secured qualification for a major tournament for the first time since France '98.
They got to that play-off decider by beating Israel in similarly dramatic shootout circumstances in October.
While in Belgrade, Scotland should've had their place at the Euros sewn up long before conceding a last-minute equaliser, at Hampden last month they failed to muster a shot on target during what was a turgid 90 minutes.
In the reverse Nations League fixture it took Ryan Christie's penalty to break the deadlock, one of just two shots on target for the Scots, before Eran Zahavi plundered a late equaliser for the visitors.
As the two previous meetings we shouldn't be expecting many goals, which is why under 2.5 is around 8/11 across the board. After Israel's 3-2 win against Slovakia only a couple of games ago, I'm not brave enough to take the far juicier 12/5 on offer for under 1.5 goals, nor confident enough to back over 2.5 on the basis of one result.
Zahavi netted a hat-trick in that win in Bratislava, and has scored five of his country's last six goals so instead it's him I'm looking to for both reliability and value.
The Israel strike is 2/1 to score anytime with Unibet and 888Sport, and 5/1 to break the deadlock generally.
Somewhere else I see value is in the outright, where the draw is priced up as the considerable outside bet. Although Scotland may have to win to clinch promotion, that doesn't mean we should draw a line through the draw, which is 23/10 with various bookmakers and a best price of 19/8 with VBet.
Both Scotland and Israel tend to be involved in tight matches, with each of their last eight fixtures settled by one-goal or fewer.
Backing the draw, you're likely to be in play right until the final whistle.
Score prediction: Israel 1-1 Scotland (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best bets:
Wales v Finland
- 7.45pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match odds: Home 17/20 | Draw 12/5 | Away 16/5
This is a winner takes all encounter in Group B4, well almost - it's a draw will do encounter for Wales too.
Ryan Giggs/Rob Page's team have been excellent in this edition of the Nations League, winning four of their five matches to sit a point clear of Finland at the top. They are yet to concede a goal, which is mightily impressive.
The Fins have only been breached twice themselves, so you can probably guess which way I'm leaning here in terms of goals.
The only value to be squeezed from that market is under 1.5 goals at 7/4, which I'm happy to back.
But something else that really caught my eye were the outright odds and just how big the price on an away win is. Wales have won their last eight competitive home games to rightly earn the tag of favourites, but odds-on? I wouldn't go near that.
Finland have won all four of their Nations League matches since suffering a narrow 1-0 defeat at home by Wales, a game which really could have gone in any direction.
Last week, they beat France 2-0 in a friendly in Paris.
I'm more than happy to take the 17/5 on offer from BetVictor and William Hill for them to win in Cardiff and really don't think their evens price in the Double Chance should be sniffed at either.
Finland are a team in form, and while it could be argued that Wales are too, this time last week the Welsh laboured to a goalless draw at home to the USA while the Fins turned over the world champions on their own patch.
They may have been friendlies, but it's enough for me to take that price on Finland.
Given Wales' run of clean sheets, I cannot see them suddenly letting in more than one goal, so I'm happy to be ambitious and go for the 1-0 away win too, priced at 9/1 across the board.
Score prediction: Wales 0-1 Finland (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bets:
Odds correct at 2100 GMT (16/11/20)
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