Free Premier League betting tips: Preview of Wednesday's games, including Everton v West Ham
Six Premier League games take place on Wednesday and we're expecting goals in the TV clash. Check out our match-by-match betting preview.
By Andy Schooler and David John
Arsenal v Huddersfield (1945 GMT)
Both managers may have one eye on arguably more important Saturday fixtures going into this one and it could well influence team selection.
After a hard game against Manchester City on Sunday, does David Wagner really want his side running themselves into the ground here against a team which has won its last 11 home league games? The Terriers head to Everton on Saturday which can easily be dubbed a ‘six-pointer’.
Likewise, Arsenal have a key task looming – they host Manchester United on Saturday evening and it would be no surprise if Arsene Wenger feels he can get away with making a few changes for this one, particularly given how things have gone for him in the Europa League this season with a much-changed side.
Of course, such an approach (from either team) has the potential to go horribly wrong and this could well be one to hold fire on until you know the team news.
Arsenal have won four of their six home league games this season by at least two clear goals so 4/6 about them doing so again could make appeal.
Huddersfield really showed some fight against City and a repeat could see them push Arsenal hard but at the same time it is worth remembering they have not scored away from home since the opening day.
Their last three road trips have brought a 4-0 beating at Bournemouth, a 3-0 defeat at Liverpool and a 2-0 loss at Swansea.
At this stage, I’d be edging towards a convincing Arsenal win but, as already said, the advice for now is to wait for the team news.
Prediction: Arsenal 3-0 Huddersfield (AS) (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Bournemouth v Burnley (1945 GMT)
Both of these sides have shown some decent form in recent weeks, hence the reason you find the hosts around the even-money mark.
However, the Cherries have won just two of their six home games thus far. They may have beaten Huddersfield convincingly last time out at Dean Court but Burnley are proven to be much more resilient on the road than the Terriers.
They’ve lost only once on their travels so far, winning three of six, and they look a tempting price at around 10/3.
They had beaten Newcastle, Southampton and Swansea all to nil prior to Sunday’s stoppage-time defeat to Arsenal. Another win without concession is chalked up north of 6/1.
Given Bournemouth have already lost by that method at home to Watford, Leicester and Chelsea, that is another tasty-looking price.
My main concern on this front would be that the Clarets’ settled defence looks set to be changed for the first time this season with Matt Lowton struggling with injury.
There’s no doubt defensive continuity has helped Burnley’s progress to seventh in the table a third of the way through the season and if they are forced into a switch, it will be interesting to see how they cope. At least they have an experienced right-back in the form of Phil Bardsley ready to slot in.
The same concern faces anyone planning to wade into the 8/11 on offer about this being the 12th of Burnley’s 14 games to have under 2.5 goals.
Prediction: Bournemouth 0-2 Burnley (AS) (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
Chelsea v Swansea (1945 GMT)
Paul Clement retains his role in charge of Swansea for the time being and although Saturday’s 0-0 draw at home to Bournemouth was hardly enthralling viewing, they certainly looked the better of the duo at the Liberty Stadium.
They were more resilient than of late, the crowd responded positively as a result and they looked more likely than the Cherries to fashion a winner, which probably should have been provided by Wilfried Bony after his effort was strangely disallowed for a mystifying earlier infringement.
It does not immediately get any easier though and any frail confidence that may have been generated at the weekend could be crushed in an instant if Chelsea are firing on all cylinders.
Swansea head to the capital as 20/1 chance for all three points and will have their fingers crossed that Antonio Conte’s side are still flagging after a very busy spell that has seen them travel to Baku and then delve further into their resources to force a draw at Liverpool.
It certainly comes down to digging in and showing some fighting spirit at this time of the year and the Italian has no choice to get his players to roll up their sleeves if they are to have any chance at all of closing the gap at the top.
I liked what I saw from Danny Drinkwater on his first Premier League start for the Blues and he would get the vote ahead of Tiemoue Bakayoko from these quarters for the first XI as the £40million former Monaco man looks well off the pace required at this level currently.
Swansea striker Tammy Abraham has been carrying an injury problem or two of late but can’t play against his parent club anyway so the onus will be on Bony and a lively Jordan Ayew to try to give the hosts something to think about.
Overall, I just didn’t see enough from Clement’s outfit to suggest a bet on them to pay for Christmas by pulling off the shock but he might be able to organise things efficiently enough to keep the score respectable.
Prediction: Chelsea 2-0 Swansea (DJ) (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Everton v West Ham (2000 GMT, BT Sport 1)
If Everton’s problems can really be traced back to the sale of Romelu Lukaku – and my word they’ve certainly not come close to replacing his goals – then it will be felt more against West Ham than anyone else.
The Belgian has been a constant thorn in the Hammers’ side over the years, scoring 11 times in his 13 appearances against them. Most of those came in an Everton shirt and so West Ham will certainly be glad not to see him in opposition on Wednesday night.
A look through the rest of the Everton XI should also see their eyes light up for this is a bedraggled mob at present.
In the last week alone they’ve conceded nine goals despite having only played twice and, at tie of writing, they remain a largely rudderless ship, everyone associated with the club waiting for a managerial appointment with it now clear that David Unsworth cannot be handed the reins full time.
They have more problems to deal with here with three of the back four which played at Southampton, namely Michael Keane, Leighton Baines and Mason Holgate, injury doubts. Given how Everton defended at St Mary’s, that may not seem such bad news but still you’d think having real defenders on the pitch rather than square pegs in round holes is preferable no matter how bad things have got.
It is with Everton’s defensive issues in mind that I come to my bet for this match – West Ham to score in both halves.
They may have only netted five goals away from home thus far but they also won’t have faced a defence as frail as this one.
Spurs, Apollon Limassol, Lyon, Arsenal and Atalanta have all won this bet at Goodison this season and at 19/5 it’s worth chancing it happens again.
The current Everton team is a far cry from the one which proved so tough to beat during much of David Moyes’ decade-long rein at Goodison. He’ll be back in the opposing dugout for this one.
The home fans seem unlikely to greet him well but their wrath may quickly turn to their own team as the night wears on.
It’s also easy to envisage goals going in at the other end of the pitch with West Ham having conceded at least twice in five of seven away games thus far and high-scoring results could also be well worth a look.
Everton won their last home game in the league 3-2 (against Watford), a result sandwiched by 1-5 and 2-5 scorelines at Goodison. Over 4.5 again may be worth a nibble at 7/1.
Another 3-2 home win is 33/1, a 3-2 away victory is offered at 40/1 and a 2-2 draw at 16s. Dutching the three could also be worthy of consideration.
Manchester City v Southampton (2000 GMT)
I could ramble on about how good Manchester City are here and that they might score plenty of goals but that’s old hat.
I much prefer to look to Southampton for the best bets in this one and I’ll start by putting up Oriel Romeu to be carded.
Southampton’s holding midfielder returns from a suspension for this one – he’s already picked up five yellows in 13 appearance this season – but history suggest that won’t see him pulling out of any tackles.
In 2016/17 he was carded 13 times in 46 games, while in 2015/16 it was eight in 35.
However, it is not simply the quantity of cards he has collected which make him a bet here, more where he plays and how the game is likely to unfold.
I remember picking out a similar game for this bet last season when Southampton headed to free-flowing Chelsea and Romeu was duly booked.
The argument then is the same now. The Spaniard is Southampton’s holding midfielder, one who can easily be exposed when opponents break on the Saints.
Chelsea were the kings of such counter-attacking play back in the spring; now the mantle has passed to City and it is not difficult to see Romeu pulling down the likes of Raheem Sterling, David Silva or Leroy Sane in such a scenario.
We saw during Sunday’s win over Everton how Southampton’s full-backs, Cedric Soares and Ryan Bertrand, like to get forward and while they seem unlikely to be so marauding at the Etihad, when they do push on, Romeu will be asked to keep an eye on the space left behind.
The 19/10 available seems a perfectly fair price to take here.
My other selection is for Charlie Austin to score at any time at 37/10.
Finally handed a start on Sunday, he stepped up to the plate with two goals.
What I really like here is Austin’s track record of scoring in clusters, particularly in the first half of a season.
Take a look at these runs:
- 6 goals in 6 games - Sep to Oct 2013 (for QPR)
- 10 goals in 9 games – Oct to Dec 2014 (for QPR)
- 7 goals in 7 games – Aug to Sep 2015 (for QPR)
- 7 goals in 6 games – Sep to Oct 2016 (for Southampton)
Yes, City have won plenty of games ‘to nil’ this term but they’ve also conceded in home games against Everton, Stoke and Arsenal.
I won’t make any argument against the hosts winning; they could easily do so by three or four. But that also means the defence doesn’t necessarily have to be water tight and with the confidence of both Austin and the team as a whole boosted by their weekend display, I think backing the 28-year-old to net again looks worth a poke.
Prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Southampton (AS) (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Stoke v Liverpool (2000 GMT)
Liverpool were a tad unfortunate not to get all three points against Chelsea but Jurgen Klopp once more had to face the media and explain why his super-gifted side lost more ground over the weekend.
A 1-1 draw on the back of their implosion at Sevilla will have chipped away a little more at the belief in their ability to see out a game and leaves them 14 points adrift of Manchester City at the top.
Willian will tell you otherwise but his last-gasp leveller from the edge of the penalty area had more cross than shot about it as it floated over the head of Simon Mignolet, who had been exemplary up to that point, keeping out an attack that was jaded to be fair after their own long midweek journey.
Calls in the media since Saturday have been for Klopp and his players to develop a more ruthless streak to help them get over the line but a trip to the bet365 Stadium is a testing place to try to put that into practice.
Klopp’s opposite number Mark Hughes is under some pressure from some sections of the home support for a similar reason after his side played well at Crystal Palace but could not reach the final whistle and claim a hard-earned point.
A similar level of endeavour will give them a better chance than a 9/2 quote might suggest and they certainly have a couple of game-changers in their ranks at the moment, headed by Xherdan Shaqiri, who seems to have heeded Hughes’ plea to pull his finger out at club level now Switzerland are going to the World Cup finals.
The stocky left-footer better be on his mettle after Liverpool kicked Chelsea playmaker Eden Hazard black and blue but I certainly can envisage a scenario where Shaqiri, Eric Choupo-Moting or even ex-Red Peter Crouch get the better of the visiting back line at least once.
With that being the case, it looks well worth siding with the visitors for victory and both teams to score as the hosts simply don’t look able to match up well enough against the Liverpool hordes and their strength when they get on the front foot and start to swarm forward.
Recommended bets
0.5pts Burnley to win to nil v Bournemouth at 63/10
1pt West Ham to score in both halves v Everton at 19/5
2pts Oriel Romeu to be carded in Manchester City v Southampton at 19/10
1pt Charlie Austin to score at any time in Manchester City v Southampton at 37/10
1pt Liverpool to win and both teams to score v Stoke at 2/1
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Posted at 1730 GMT on 28/11/17.
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