After posting some solid profit last weekend, Liam Kelly returns with a confident best bet for Saturday's early Championship match between Watford and Nottingham Forest.
Xisco Munoz has led Watford squad right back in to the mix for automatic promotion.
A routine midweek win over rock-bottom Wycombe saw the Hornets rise to third place in the Sky Bet Championship table entering this fixture, making it five wins from their last six matches.
Kick-off time: Saturday, 12:30 GMT
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Will Watford get promoted?
The disappointing 1-0 defeat to Bournemouth last weekend wasn't without promise either, looking in control for much of that game before a lapse in concentration caused them to fall behind.
A previously stagnant — yet talented — attacking unit appears to have been rejuvenated in recent weeks, scoring eight goals in the five games since a huge 6-0 victory against Bristol City.
Defensively is where Watford excel, though, surrendering chances equating to an average 0.97 expected goals against (xGA) per game en route to conceding only 24 goals in 34 league matches.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Forest's attacking woes
Having missed a few early opportunities, Nottingham Forest looked fairly toothless in their midweek match with Luton, ultimately losing 1-0 at the City Ground.
Tuesday night's game was a microcosm of their season, with Chris Hughton's side struggling to convert the few chances they create, scoring just 28 goals from a total 40.1 xG (1.18 xGF per game).
While they have been a solid defensive unit throughout the campaign, Forest have conceded a fair amount of chances away from home, and Vicarage Road is one of the tougher places to visit at the moment.
Watford should have far too much depth and quality for their bottom-half opposition here, making WATFORD TO WIN the value selection at 19/20.
The prices don't reflect the situation the two sides find themselves in, with the Hornets chasing automatic promotion in good form, leaving Forest shorter than deserved in the markets on reputation alone.
Watford v Nottingham Forest score prediction and best bets
- Watford to win at 19/20 (William Hill)
Score prediction: Watford 2-0 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1305 GMT on 04/03/21
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