Our tipster Joe Rindl is backing Brentford to beat sorry Watford as well as a 5/1 goalscorer bet in his preview.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Brentford to win at 8/5 (General)
1pt Bryan Mbeumo to score anytime at 5/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Just when Brentford looked to be sleepwalking towards danger, they flicked the switch, refound their early season form, and propelled themselves up the table.
The Bees have won four of their last five, including brilliant results against West Ham and Chelsea, the latter being a crushing 4-1 win against the European champions.
Brentford, on a three-match winning run now have serious hopes of claiming a top-half finish in their maiden Premier League season.
It would be a fitting finish for Thomas Frank’s side who have consistently gone under the radar. Brentford are the new Brighton when it comes to expected goals performance.
According to Infogol, Brentford are seventh in the Premier League expected points table. That would make them the ‘best of the rest’, with only the traditional top six racking up more expected wins.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Watford 15/8 | Draw 11/5 | Brentford 8/5
Watford finished above Brentford in the Sky Bet Championship table last season. This year, as has been clear for some time, they are going to end up well below their Saturday opponents.
The Hornets’ recent 3-0 loss to Leeds at home looks to have been yet another final nail in their coffin. Losing against their relegation rivals has left Roy Hodgson’s team one point off bottom and six points off safety having played one game more than 17th-placed Everton.
They’re also in a torrid run of form, having lost four of their past five matches. They have won just two games from their last 20 in all competitions.
Worryingly, only seven fixtures remain for the hosts to save their season.
BRENTFORD TO WIN at 8/5 will please many punters. I feel that’s a generous price especially considering Watford’s dismal home record, the worst in the division. The Hornets have won two, drawn one and lost 12 of their 15 matches at Vicarage Road this season.
I am also intrigued by the 5/1 about BRYAN MBEUMO TO SCORE ANYTIME in this fixture.
The midfielder opened the scoring against West Ham in Brentford’s win last time out. Although it was just his fourth league goal of the season, his expected goals total of 8.04 suggests his luck should come through soon.
Mbeumo is averaging 0.29 xG per match this season, only Brentford’s Ivan Toney and Watford’s Josh King boast better records from these two squads.
But where as they both present short odds, Mbeumo seems the value pick.
Watford v Brentford best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Brentford to win at 8/5 (General)
- 1pt Bryan Mbeumo to score anytime at 5/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Score prediction: Watford 0-2 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1230 BST (13/04/21)
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