Liam Kelly previews Bayern Munich's Champions League trip to face Villarreal, picking out a nice player prop price in what promises to be a tactical battle.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Étienne Capoue to be shown a card at 12/5 (Sky Bet, bet365)
Villarreal are rewarded for their outstanding advancement past Juventus with a tie against Bayern Munich, a side sauntering to another domestic title that can fully concentrate on a competition they thrive in.
Granted, all opponents are top class at this stage of the Champions League, but the home side would have hoped for an easier assignment. After all, Bayern have demolished Barcelona and Red Bull Salzburg in the prior knockout rounds.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: BT Sport 3
Villarreal 17/4 | Draw 10/3 | Bayern Munich 4/7
Even so, the match odds market is one that should be avoided in this first leg, especially with the very short price on offer for the away side.
Villarreal are in dreadful form in La Liga, losing to Cádiz and Levante in poor fashion most recently, but Unai Emery is a manager that can certainly get a team ready for a one-off tie given his European record.
As a result, a fairly tactical affair is to be expected, perhaps at a slower pace than Bayern would appreciate considering the freedoms allowed in their previous encounters in the UCL.
In that case, Under 2.5 Goals was of some interest at odds of 7/5, especially with how Villarreal's first leg with Juventus played out — a 1-1 draw with few chances in spite of a opening minute goal (xG: VIL 1.06 - 0.41 JUV).
Bayern look to be hitting their stride, though, averaging 3.34 expected goals for (xGF) per game and scoring 16 goals across their last four fixtures in all competitions.
Therefore, it would be dangerous route to take betting against goals, even at a price that looks like a slight amount of value at the prices.
Instead, a look to the more obscure markets is needed.
Of much more interest is the price about Villarreal midfielder ETIENNE CAPOUE TO BE SHOWN A CARD. Available at a generous 12/5, the former Watford and Tottenham man should give you a good run for your money on all known evidence.
Capoue has received seven yellow cards in La Liga this season (42 fouls), two more than any of his teammates. Granted, he has only been given one in their Champions League campaign, but that should work out in our favour here, with no fear of the him being suspended for the second leg if handed a card.
Additionally, the Frenchman has committed a team-high 15 fouls in the UCL this term, nine more than any other Villarreal player.
His midfield partnership with Dani Parejo is rather statuesque compared to Bayern Munich's, who should enjoy a lot of the ball in what is sure to be a tactical battle. Siding with Capoue to be carded might pay.
Villarreal v Bayern Munich best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Étienne Capoue to be shown a card at 12/5 (Sky Bet, bet365)
Score prediction: Villarreal 0-1 Bayern Munich (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (04/04/21)
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