Our match preview with best bets for the Champions League final between Manchester City and Chelsea
Our match preview with best bets for the Champions League final between Manchester City and Chelsea

Champions League final betting tips: Manchester City v Chelsea best bets and preview


The Champions League final sees Manchester City take on Chelsea in Portugal, and Tom Carnduff has four best bets to back.


Football betting tips: Champions League final

1pt Kevin De Bruyne to be shown a card at 13/2 (bet365)

1pt Timo Werner to have 1+ assists at 17/2 (Sky Bet)

1pt Cesar Azpilicueta and Jorginho to be shown a card at 12/1 (bet365)

0.5pt Kevin De Bruyne and Mason Mount to be shown a card at 40/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook


Thomas Tuchel took on the Chelsea job at the end of January and by the end of May he will have faced Manchester City three times. His side are, once again, the outsiders for their meeting with Pep Guardiola's English champions, but both of their previous meetings ending in a Chelsea victory gives hope to another upset here.

The concern is that they have lost three of their last four. That includes FA Cup final defeat to Leicester - although the Foxes' defeat on the final day meant that Tuchel's men secured a spot in the top-four despite leaving Villa Park empty-handed.

However, City's end to the season had its own bumps with two losses in their last four - one of which was at the Etihad against Saturday's opponents. The Premier League form charts for the final five games had both teams returning nine points, so it's not necessarily a case of one coming into the game in better form than the other.


Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Saturday

TV channel: BT Sport 1

Home 17/20 | Draw 12/5 | Away 7/2


Chelsea's issue may have been that they did have one eye on this game as the weeks closed in. They could have easily won the FA Cup final with over twice as many attempts on goal - while they also posted considerable higher expected goals (xG) figures in the two league defeats either side of it (2.08 - 0.61 v Arsenal; 3.66 - 1.09 v Aston Villa).

While City are fancied to lift the trophy due to success in the Premier League and Carabao Cup already this season, we should be more focused on the near 2/1 price available for Chelsea to emerge from Portugal victorious - they've shown they can do it on two separate occasions already.

Value in the cards market

Antonio Mateu Lahoz averages 4.97 cards per game this season
Antonio Mateu Lahoz averaged 4.97 cards per game this season

Backing cards in Champions League fixtures this season has been a profitable route, and we hope that this game will be no exception. The referee appointment gives hope to plenty of cards in this game, too, but we'll come back to that shortly.

Our second leg preview of Chelsea v Real Madrid delivered a 22/1 winning card double, with Toni Kroos and Mason Mount both being booked in the second-half. That was alongside a 14/1 winner in the same game and a 14/1 winner in City's first leg victory over PSG from two pre-game tweets.

The positive for the possibility of cards is that Spain's Antonio Mateu Lahoz will be the man in the middle for this game. He's strict - very strict - and his card rate is incredibly high. Across 29 contests in all competitions this season, Lahoz has shown an average of 4.97 cards per game.

The occasion will play a part, too. Looking across the past ten Champions League finals, the average cards per game figure stands at 4.4. That average is dragged down by the fact that there were none in Liverpool's dull victory over Tottenham in 2019, and then just one when the Reds were beaten by Real Madrid the season before.

Four of the last seven finals have seen at least six cards dished out in 90 minutes. We could expect the number to be similar here, with five handed out when Chelsea beat Manchester City in the FA Cup semi-final. If it's close, or one team holds a slight lead, we may see a few cards coming in the final ten minutes.

Kevin De Bruyne's statistics v PSG

There could be an argument to be made that you could pick any combination of players involved in the starting XI and put them together for a decent looking card double, but there are some that catch the eye due to their statistics so far this season.

The first of which is a huge 13/2 to be carded across the 90 minutes, and that's Manchester City star KEVIN DE BRUYNE. He was carded in both legs of their semi-final success over PSG.

It will be interesting to see where he plays in this game, but there's every chance Guardiola will utilise him as a centre forward, as has been the case in previous big games. In that position, he hit four fouls in both victories over PSG, and that's why he was booked.

De Bruyne also reached three fouls in City's win at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season, a game where he played in a role that resembled a centre forward more than an attacking midfielder. He averages 1.1 fouls per game in the Premier League, but he does go above that when playing further forward.

Mason Mount's defensive statistics in the Champions League

Given the occasion, I'm willing to back De Bruyne to catch the referee's attention with numerous fouls to end up in the book. Due to his big odds, there is a big 40/1 card double available on DE BRUYNE AND MASON MOUNT BOTH TO BE CARDED.

Chelsea star Mount leads the way among regular starters in this squad for average fouls per game in the Premier League. He sees 1.4 fouls per 90 minutes, with that rate jumping up to 1.6 in the Champions League. He could count himself lucky that he only finished the league campaign with two yellows.

However, he did see four yellows from ten Champions League outings, and his personal connection with the club should see him more involved in the occasion.

One of the many things that stand out about Lahoz's refereeing style is that attacking players do often get booked, and what could be viewed as persistent fouling could be the reason why. With Mount in attacking midfield, he could get caught in that trap and pick up a card.

The final cards focus for this game combines two Chelsea players. There is great value on offer for JORGINHO AND CESAR AZPILICUETA BOTH TO BE CARDED by the referee in 90 minutes. They are among the regulars for committing fouls in this Blues squad.

Azpilicueta sits on an average of 1.2 fouls per game in the Premier League, with that moving up to 1.7 in the Champions League. For Jorginho, he has 1.1 in the Premier League and 1 in European competition.

Jorginho should feature in the midfield, and that will be a key area of the pitch in this game. His seven yellows across all competitions shows how he can catch the referee's attention, while Azpilicueta also has seven yellows and a red - that coming in the final day defeat against Aston Villa.

Can Werner make an impact?

Timo Werner's Premier League statistics

Timo Werner's form has been the subject of debate throughout the season. While he was brought in to be Chelsea's main source of goals, his six in the league didn't even make him the top goalscorer at the club. That said, 12 across all competitions doesn't necessarily make it the disaster that is being portrayed.

One thing that Werner has been doing well is picking up assists, with a significant tally of 15 across the course of a season. Tuchel's arrival has helped that and he's enjoyed a good return of assists in recent weeks - three of his last four league games have had an assist.

He picked up a helper in the round of 16 victory over Atletico Madrid, and his ability to draw penalties also benefits an assist-based bet around the forward. We await full team news but a return for Kai Havertz would be welcome - that would force Werner out wide and takes away the responsibility of being the goalscorer.

With his numbers in mind, it's a surprise to see huge odds of 17/2 available on WERNER TO HAVE 1+ ASSISTS in 90 minutes. He has, after all, got an assist in each of Chelsea's two victories over City under Tuchel's guidance.

Even with City's strong defence, Chelsea should be able to find a way through as they have done in previous meetings. Given his showings, there is value available on backing Werner to be directly involved.

Who will win the Champions League final?

Pep Guardiola's City won the title through defensive solidity
Pep Guardiola with the Premier League trophy

Manchester City are the favourites but Chelsea have proven in their past two meetings that they do have enough about them to beat Guardiola's side. Champions League finals are usually close contests and this year should be no exception.

It wouldn't be a surprise at all to see this game go beyond 90 minutes - and that is worth remembering with any pre-match bets - with City's odds just a tad too short for victory in normal time. When looking at the outright market, Chelsea's near 2/1 price to lift the trophy is appealing.

They do look a new side under Tuchel, and without that head coach change, they wouldn't be lining up here on Saturday. Securing the Champions League will be a significant achievement given the short period of time he has been at the club.

Backing the 'away' side here looks the value play when it comes to the result, but the better prices can be found in the CARDS market, while also taking WERNER to be involved in the goals.


Champions League final best bets and score prediction

  • 1pt Kevin De Bruyne to be shown a card at 13/2 (bet365)
  • 1pt Timo Werner to have 1+ assists at 17/2 (Sky Bet)
  • 1pt Cesar Azpilicueta and Jorginho to be shown a card at 12/1 (bet365)
  • 0.5pt Kevin De Bruyne and Mason Mount to be shown a card at 40/1 (bet365)

Score prediction: Manchester City 1-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Odds correct at 1645 BST (26/05/21)


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