The Nations League continues on Tuesday with Germany and Spain in action in League A. Tom Carnduff has two best bets.
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Germany v Switzerland
- 19:45 BST on Sky Sports Football
- Match odds: Home 4/9 | Draw 10/3 | Away 11/2
A draw in the reverse fixture has played a significant part in keeping Germany off top spot in League A, Group 4 but they can keep the pressure on Spain with victory here.
Success over Ukraine last time out helped to move Die Mannschaft on to five points and, despite their short odds-on price for success, the game may not be as straightforward as they suggest.
What we do know is that Germany will opt for a similar line-up to the one that was successful in Kiev. Joachim Low told the media: "It makes sense to play with a similar team on Tuesday [as we did against Ukraine on Saturday]. It's the first time in ten months we have been able to play with this team. If no-one has picked up an injury, I won't be making many changes."
That should mean we will see Leon Goretzka, a goalscorer against Ukraine, line-up in the midfield again. What is a key difference for the national side compared with Bayern is how he plays further forward when with his country. At Bayern, he partners Joshua Kimmich in defensive midfield. With Toni Kroos there, he can play in more advanced areas.
His goals record is a good indicator of that. Since he became a regular member of the national team in 2016, Goretzka has scored 12 goals in 25 appearances. He's also a player who posts high shot counts and that makes the 4/1 available on two or more on target here good value.
There were three total shots (two on target) at the weekend. In his last Germany appearance before that, a 6-1 hammering of Northern Ireland, Goretzka had three shots (two on target). In that same international break, in a 4-0 win against Belarus, he had four (two on target).
Granted, Switzerland may pose a tougher test than the previous three games he has been involved in but that 4/1 price would be expected if this was a Bayern game; it's a price that reflects someone in the deeper midfield positions rather than attack.
When it comes to the outright result, Germany should just edge this but that doesn't mean I'd be rushing to back the 4/9 price available across the board. They may have beaten Ukraine, but they have failed to secure victories over Spain, Argentina, Netherlands and, of course, Switzerland in the past 12 months.
Instead, Sky Bet offer 11/4 on Germany to win by exactly one goal. That would appear to be the most attractive outright option but the best value comes in the 4/1 available on Goretzka posting two shots on target.
Score prediction: Germany 2-1 Switzerland (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Ukraine v Spain
- 19:45 BST on Sky Sports Red Button
- Match odds: Home 11/2 | Draw 18/5 | Away 2/5
Spain managed to edge their way past Switzerland at the weekend but should enjoy a more comfortable evening as they travel to Kiev to face Ukraine.
The visitors are odds-on favourites across the board and should continue their unbeaten record in the competition this season; they sit top of the group with seven points from three games. Four of their six goals scored came in victory over Ukraine last month.
That meeting was the only time Ukraine have failed to find the net in their four games this year and we should expect more goals here based on the hosts' track record; six of their last seven games across all competitions has hit over 2.5 goals.
While Spain have struggled to find the net this international break (one v Switzerland, zero v Portugal), this game does present an opportunity to get back to their attacking best. This is a side who hit 31 goals in their 10 Euro qualification games and one that sit on six goals after three games here; Ukraine have conceded seven over the same period.
They have a number of options to choose from with Rodrigo and Adama Traore both on the bench for that win last time out. Whether they will be involved here remains to be seen but Spain won't be losing out by leaving either out of the starting XI; they have enough quality in the squad.
Ukraine actually had a decent home run going before that defeat at the weekend. However, among those eleven teams they went unbeaten against only one (Portugal) was in the top-ten of the world rankings. That was a game that Portugal dominated, 22 attempts on goal and 60% possession, but they couldn't convert the opportunities created.
Spain shouldn't be as wasteful but will enjoy numerous opportunities to find the net. An away win with over 3.5 goals in the contest is available at a best price of 15/8; that is where the best bet can be found here.
Score prediction: Ukraine 1-3 Spain (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1045 BST (12/10/20)
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