Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Tomas Soucek to score anytime at 6/1 (bet365)
1pt Emerson Palmieri to be carded at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
Tottenham's late, late equaliser at Manchester City was undeserved based on the quality of chances created by both teams in the game (xG: MCI 2.57 - 0.46 TOT), but their application, never-say-die attitude and the refusal to change their approach meant no one could begrudge them a share of the spoils.
The point kept them fifth as avoided a fourth straight defeat, but their defence remains especially vulnerable as they welcome West Ham.
The Hammers hang in the top half currently and head to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium unbeaten in three. They welcomed Jarrod Bowen back from injury last weekend, and he has scored in every away league game he's played so far this season.
What are the best bets?
While Spurs are rightly favourites to win the game, I think there will be goals at both ends. Spurs' defence of late has been awful, shipping at least 1.9 xGA in all of their last four, while West Ham have allowed a whopping 2.10 xGA per away game this campaign.
However, having watched Ange Postecoglou's side concede two in two games from set-pieces I did a little bit more digging into Spurs' set-piece data.
While those two goals are the only ones they have allowed this season from such situations, ranking them joint-second-best, they have allowed the ninth most expected goals from set-pieces (0.33 per game).
They have been vulnerable all season long from dead ball situations but just haven't been punished. West Ham will see this as a major area for success on Thursday given they specialise in such moments.
The Hammers have racked up the third most xGF per game (0.44) from set-pieces this season, with nearly a third of their total xGF coming via this route (31%).
With James Ward-Prowse delivering, provided they get in positions to win corners or free-kicks, they should get a few chances on Thursday.
I'm targeting one player to be the beneficiary, TOMAS SOUCEK, who looks a big price to score at 6/1.
The Czechia international has four goals to his name already this season, boasting an average of 0.43 xG per 90, which is phenomenal for a central midfield player and nearly four times as high as last season's average.
This looks to be because of the arrivals of Ward-Prowse and Edson Alvarez. As a result Soucek has been playing in a more advanced role within the midfield three, allowing him to get into the penalty area and in scoring positions more regularly. The below graphic shows the average positions of West Ham players across the last eight league games - looks how high Soucek is playing, he's ahead of Lucas Paqeuta.
So not only is he a massive set-piece threat - 38% of his xG have come via this route and half of his goals this season - but he is an open play threat as he looks to support Jarrod Bowen.
All of this makes the 6/1 about him netting in what could be a goal-laden game too big - the same bet is as short as 4/1.
I also couldn't believe my eyes that EMERSON PALMIERI is available at 4/1 TO BE CARDED for this game.
The same bet is available at 7/4 - yes you read that right.
The Italian has already been booked SIX times in his 13 Premier League outings this season, and will be up against the rapid and direct Brennan Johnson as well as the overlapping Pedro Porro, so will likely be in for an exceptionally tough evening.
BuildABet @ 24/1
- Both teams to score
- Tomas Soucek to score anytime
- Emerson Palmieri to be carded
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Goals should be on the cards in this one, with the case for a Soucek goal made above.
Brennan Johnson has impressed since coming in on the right wing for Tottenham, meaning Emerson Palmieri could be in for a tough evening.
He has been carded in six of 13 Premier League appearances this season, another is certainly a possibility.
Team news
Tottenham remain without; Rodrigo Bentancur (ankle), James Maddison (ankle), Micky van de Ven (hamstring), Pape Matar Sarr (muscle), Manor Solomon (knee), Ivan Perisic (knee), Ryan Sessegnon (thigh), Ashley Phillips (ankle) and Alfie Whiteman (ankle), while Eric Dier is doubtful.
However, Spurs will have Cristian Romero available for selection after serving a three-match suspension, and he will likely come straight in for Emerson Royal.
Richarlison is back at Postecglou's his disposal after the Brazilian came off the bench against Man City just 24 days after undergoing groin surgery.
As for West Ham, Michail Antonio remains sidelined while it remains to be seen if defender Kurt Zouma will feature after having over £100,000 of valuables stolen during a robbery at his family home last weekend, forcing him to miss the draw with Crystal Palace.
The Hammers were boosted by the return of star forward Jarrod Bowen against the Eagles and the Englishman - who has scored in all six top-flight away appearances this term - is expected to lead the line in Antonio's absence, with Kudus, Tomas Soucek and Lucas Paqueta the most likely trio to provide support in the final third.
Predicted line-ups
Tottenham: Vicario; Porro, Romero, Davies, Udogie; Bissouma, Lo Celso; Johnson, Kulusevski, Gil; Son
West Ham: Areola; Coufal, Zouma, Aguerd, Emerson; Alvarez, Ward-Prowse; Kudus, Soucek, Paqueta; Bowen
Match facts
- Tottenham have won their last two Premier League home games against West Ham, last winning more consecutively against them between 2006 and 2009 (4).
- Since becoming the first visiting team to win a Premier League game at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in April 2019, West Ham have lost three of their four league visits to Spurs (D1).
- Tottenham lost 4-1 against Chelsea in their last Premier League home London derby – they’ve not lost consecutive home league games against fellow London sides since November 2004 (2-3 v Charlton, 4-5 v Arsenal).
- West Ham have lost nine of their last 10 away London derbies in the Premier League, with the exception being a 1-0 win at Fulham in April.
- West Ham didn’t win any of their six midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games last season (D2 L4), losing the last three in a row.
- West Ham haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 11 Premier League away games, though they’ve also scored at least once in each of their last eight on the road in the league.
- Spurs’ Son Heung-min has been involved in eight goals in eight Premier League home games against West Ham (5 goals, 3 assists), scoring at least once in each of his last three against them at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
- Jarrod Bowen has scored six goals in six Premier League away games this season, having netted just four in his first 69 on the road beforehand. The only West Ham players to score more away from home in a single Premier League campaign are Trevor Morley (7 in 1993-94) and Paulo Wanchope (7 in 1999-00)
Odds correct at 1630 GMT (06/12/23)
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