Football betting tips: Premier League, Bundesliga, EFL
1pt Everton over 5.5 corners vs Chelsea at 14/5 (14:00) at 14/5 (BoyleSports)
This column is being published a little later than usual so apologies for that.
One of those daft winter illnesses has really got hold of me this week so in terms of productivity, it's been far from my highest...and I'm lazy enough anyway.
But we go into this weekend on the back of a solid enough showing last time out with Hoffenheim smashing their high corners requirement for a profit of +12.54pts.
Enough about that - tooooooo boring - we're onto the final weekend before Christmas and the incredibly busy period of football that it brings so we've got a lot to go at.
Let's get into it then...
Everton vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 4/1 | Draw 3/1 | Away 3/5
A contest that should end in a routine away win but a huge piece of news for Everton this week means the Goodison crowd will be well up for this.
The Friedkin Group takeover finally reaching completion hopefully brings an end to the off-field noise and sagas which has surrounded the club in recent times.
It's positivity - that's been a rare find on the blue side of Merseyside.
Given the roaring home support behind them and the likely game state that'll play out, I'll take the near 3s on EVERTON 6+ CORNERS.
Sean Dyche's side love to use their width anyway but they don't take as many crosses as others within the division. Still, it does lead to corners for them.
They had ten in the recent 0-0 draw with Brentford, with eight coming when they were beaten by Bournemouth earlier in the campaign.
Everton have actually been quite decent in front of their own fans despite their position in the Premier League table yet the game state does favour corners.
They've conceded the first goal more times than they've scored it in games, that naturally leads to them chasing a way back in.
And even with the home crowd up for it, this Chelsea squad boasts a ridiculous amount of attacking talent. It may well be a closer game than we think though.
That should mean corners for the hosts.
Odds correct at 1435 GMT (20/12/25)
Already advised
Friday
1pt Xaver Schlager to score anytime in Bayern vs Leipzig (19:30) at 25/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday
1pt Kaoru Mitoma 1+ assists in West Ham vs Brighton (15:00) at 4/1 (Betway, BoyleSports)
1pt Grimsby to score 2+ goals vs Swindon (15:00) at 7/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 1/5 | Draw 6/1 | Away 19/2
An eye-catching game from the Bundesliga on Friday night as Bayern host Leipzig - two sides who have gone well in recent years.
You usually get goals in this fixture and Leipzig can still play their part even if the attack hasn't been firing at a rate we've seen in previous seasons.
A recent trip to Hoffenheim delivered a 4-3 thriller while goals came in a 2-1 loss at Dortmund last month. Each of Bayern's last four league games at home have delivered over 2.5.
That line delivers no interest at a price of 3/10 though and I'll instead be taking the 25/1 on XAVER SCHLAGER TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Injuries to Eljif Elmas, Amadou Haidara and Assan Ouedraogo mean that Schlager should continue as a starter as he did in their last game - a 2-1 win over Eintracht Frankfurt.
He's not a prolific scorer but he does see efforts on goal. Last season saw an average of 0.76 shots per league game with 0.11 of those on target.
Look it's a big ask of course but it's the price for me that jumps out. It's 25/1 on a starting midfielder to strike in a game which could become somewhat open at times.
The best price you're getting on likely midfield partner Arthur Vermeeren is 18/1 - he's had one shot in 12 league appearances this season.
I'll have a pop on Schlager at 25s.
West Ham vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 7/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 13/10
I'm going to take a point I made in the recent edition of the Notebook for a selection in this game.
A couple of bookmakers go 4/1 on KAORU MITOMA 1+ ASSISTS when Brighton travel to West Ham on Saturday, anything around the 3/1 or above marker is fine as well.
Mitoma who has been creating plenty for his team-mates in recent weeks.
The winger provided a season-high four chances on Sunday, meaning that three of his last four games have seen at least three. Despite this, no assists have arrived across this period.
This is a West Ham side who concede so many chances too. They sit 4th for highest expected goals against (xGA) allowed in the Premier League after 16 games with 29.07.
Given Brighton's own style, I'd expect Mitoma to see chances to create a goal.
Swindon vs Grimsby
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 6/5 | Draw 9/4 | Away 15/8
Grimsby's season has been one in which they've had no issues hitting the road.
The Mariners are Sky Bet League Two's second-best away side after gaining 19 points from a possible 30. Only Port Vale have gained more (21), yet they've had a game extra.
Town are unbeaten in their last seven league away games - six of those have been victories. Combine this with them occupying a spot in the play-offs and confidence will be high.
The same can't be said for Swindon. They're two points clear of the relegation zone and Ian Holloway had to be pulled away from supporters following last weekend's defeat to Bradford.
#STFC … pic.twitter.com/vWeS3xlMbn
— kieran (@kieransprules_) December 14, 2024
An away win features in This Week's Acca so I won't include it here as well, but I will take the 7/4 on GRIMSBY 2+ GOALS.
David Artell's side have achieved this in wins over Carlisle, Morecambe and Salford during this away run - the first two occupying the current relegation spots.
You're never truly certain with what you're going to get from Grimsby, but I'm happy to take 2+ goals at the price given the fact they've scored three or more in two of their last three league outings.
Odds correct at 1215 GMT (20/12/25) unless otherwise stated
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