Football betting tips: Bundesliga, LaLiga, Eredivisie, Ligue 2, Danish Superliga, Swiss Super League, Scottish Premiership
Sunday
2pts Over 11.5 corners in Hibernian vs Hearts (12:30) at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Over 10.5 corners in Osasuna vs Valencia (20:00) at 6/4 (Betfred, BoyleSports)
Saturday
1pt Over 10.5 corners in Bochum vs Hoffenheim (14:30) at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Over 10.5 corners in Lausanne Sports vs Servette (19:30) at 7/5 (William Hill)
2pts Over 10.5 corners in Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen (20:00) at 20/23 (BetVictor, BoyleSports)
Friday
1pt Aarhus Over 5.5 corners vs Randers (18:00) at 5/4 (bet365, Sky Bet)
1pt Over 10.5 corners in Clermont Foot vs Caen (19:00) at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
I'm continuing on with the corners approach, and with some extra time available this week, I've delved further into the relationship between attempted crosses and corners taken.
The top line was that teams who attempt a higher number of crosses are also awarded more corners. This isn't the case for every team but it does follow a general pattern.
But a deeper dive into the statistics give further strength to the argument.
It's not the sole reason why; far from it. Other factors such as game state, shots attempted and even the nature of the crosses all add to the mix.
Yet targeting those who are on the higher end of the scale for overall crosses attempted usually leads to success in higher corner lines.
Looking at Europe's big five leagues - Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1 Premier League and Serie A - 70% of teams who rank in the top four for average crosses attempted per 90 also rank in the top six for corners taken.
Serie A performs well in this category with all four hitting the required top six area, with Germany's top-flight also seeing three of the four - Bremen ranking ninth for corners from fourth most-attempted crosses.
It's also a case of crosses excluding corners being the same teams ranking highly. While it may feel obvious, it's a positive to see the numbers backing this relationship up.
We'll continue targeting teams with high crossing rates but ensuring it is still the right sort of match-up for corners to happen.
Hibernian vs Hearts
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 13/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 19/10
It's another Edinburgh derby on Sunday with Easter Road the venue. Hibernian welcome their city rivals Hearts.
Hibs grabbed the bragging rights in the last meeting with Dwight Gayle's second-half strike the difference in a 2-1 victory. They are now unbeaten in their last three meetings with Hearts.
And both teams come into this in fine form. Hearts' 3-1 loss to Rangers the only game either has lost across their last 24 combined in all competitions.
I love the corners potential here - the Scottish Premiership is good for it anyway - with 11/8 available on OVER 11.5.
The corner count has hit double figures in 68% of the 168 games played in Scotland's top-flight so far. For Hibernian, the percentage stands at 71%.
The number is the same in Hibs' home games with the corner going ten or more in half of Hearts' contests on the road. They also took six the last time the two sides met.
The game state really is involved given the superb form of both teams and, of course, the usual competitive nature of a derby fixture.
Hearts top the charts for average crosses attempted per game with 26.4. Hibs are in fifth but still try a considerable 23.1. It's no surprise therefore that the corner count often goes high in their games.
We'll back that to continue on Sunday.
Odds correct at 1015 GMT (27/02/25)
Osasuna vs Valencia
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV: LaLiga TV
- Home 5/4 | Draw 21/10 | Away 23/10
A meeting of two teams who lead the way for crosses attempted in LaLiga this season.
Valencia top the charts as they average 22.5 crosses per game and Osasuna follow with 21.7 - although it's not directly translated to corners for the hosts.
Osasuna do typically take more CORNERS in home games at least so I'll target the 6/4 on OVER 10.5 in Sunday's late kick-off.
A recent home contest with Athletic Club - who rank third for crosses attempted - saw both teams taking four corners while there were 11 when welcoming Alaves just before that - they are fourth in the metric.
Osasuna take the lead more often than not in home games. They've scored the first in eight of 13 and a similar situation leaves Valencia chasing.
Valencia took five when chasing at 1-0 down against Villarreal in their last away game while they still took four despite being hammered 7-1 by Barcelona.
They had seven when leading for a matter of minutes at Espanyol with the same amount after conceding 20 minutes in against Valladolid.
While it still has a chance regardless, Osasuna scoring first really adds to the potential of the bet. At the prices, it's worth a go.
Odds correct at 2130 GMT (27/02/25)
Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 4/9 | Draw 10/3 | Away 9/2
A contest which should be a straightforward home win, which can be problematic in corners betting, but NEC Nijmegen's involvement could well see the count go high.
They travel to Feyenoord with both teams sitting in the top three for crosses attempted per 90 this season - that's resulted in them in the top four for corners taken.
Prices that are just shy of even money are available on OVER 10.5 CORNERS in the contest.
This has been a winner in 55% of NEC's away games this season with the corner count hitting double figures in 73%.
Largely thanks to PSV's efforts the corner tally reached 18 in NEC's trip there in September but they did take six corners in a trip to Alkmaar who are currently level on points with Feyenoord.
They have seen double figures for corners in 64% of their home games and the opponents' lack of contribution is largely the reason it falls short.
NEC should have enough about them to pitch in with a few, making 11 a total to target on Saturday night.
Odds correct at 2125 GMT (27/02/25)
Lausanne Sports vs Servette
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Saturday
- Home 6/5 | Draw 23/10 | Away 15/8
The Swiss Super League has seen 61% of its 150 matches this season have a corner count hitting double figures.
Contributing to that has been Lausanne Sports and their opponents on Saturday, Servette.
A significant 64% of their games have had at least ten corners with the same applying in a remarkable 76% of Servette's.
So, naturally, we'll side with the 7/5 on OVER 10.5 CORNERS here.
Lausanne sit second for crosses attempted per 90 in the Swiss top-flight this season (23.4) but only narrowly - Young Boys lead on 23.6.
Servette aren't far behind either with their 22.5 average placing them fifth in this metric. It's no real surprise they took 12 corners when chasing the game the last time these two sides met.
Lausanne have taken at least five corners in each of their six home league games since then - each team plays each other three times at this stage which is why it's the second home encounter for them against Saturday's opposition.
The other meeting delivered a total of nine corners and the value in there being a few more this time around.
Odds correct at 2115 GMT (27/02/25)
Bochum vs Hoffenheim
- Kick-off time: 14:30 GMT, Saturday
- Home 11/8 | Draw 5/2 | Away 17/10
A look at one of the graphs included in the intro of this column will show one of these teams.
Hoffenheim lead the way for crosses attempted in the Bundesliga and that has led to them sitting sixth for corners taken. Saturday takes them to a Bochum side who also look to their width.
At 11/8, taking OVER 10.5 CORNERS is the play.
This has been a winning selection in 52% of Hoffenheim's games this season while it's 48% for Bochum. That's hardly a surprise given game states and the way they play.
Bochum do look to utilise the middle of the pitch far more than Hoffenheim but they rank fifth for crosses attempted across all teams.
It hasn't quite translated directly to corners as they rank 13th in that area yet they took nine in a recent home defeat to Freiburg with six in a 3-3 draw with Leipzig before that.
This has been a winning pick in five of Hoffenheim's 11 on the road too, with 12 against Dortmund and ten at Bremen - two sides who rank in the top four for crosses attempted.
Clermont Foot vs Caen
- Kick-off time: 19:00 GMT, Friday
- Home 11/10 | Draw 21/10 | Away 11/5
Ligue 2 has been on my corners radar and Friday presents a meeting with two sides who look towards their width in attack.
Caen average the third-highest number of crosses per 90 in the French second tier while Clermont Foot are fifth. Combined, the average crosses per 90 for both teams is 41.8 - that is high.
It's no surprise then that this often leads to CORNERS, making OVER 10.5 a play at 29/20.
It's a nice match-up in that it's two struggling sides. Clermont are 16th of 18 while Caen are bottom. A significant three points are up for grabs for the winner in their quest for survival.
Granted that basically every other team is better than them, but Caen have conceded the first goal in seven of 11 on the road. For Clermont, they've scored the first in half of 12 at home. There is a real potential that it becomes a chase for one of the sides during the contest. There's also a case to be made for both.
Half of those Clermont home games have seen the corner count hit double figures while it's 64% for Caen away.
The reverse fixture did see each team taking four but that was impacted by the fact the only goal was scored in the 89th minute. Anything much earlier brings the game state into play.
And Clermont's home corner average is somewhat impacted by totals against the better teams. There were ten corners when facing Red Star (15th) with 14 against Rodez (13th). They took seven in the loss to Ajaccio (11th).
The same applies to Caen. The away win at Martigues (17th) saw 11 match corners and a draw with Red Star had 17.
I'll side with this one seeing at least 11 at the prices.
Randers vs Aarhus
- Kick-off time: 18:00 GMT, Friday
- Home 2/1 | Draw 2/1 | Away 5/4
The Danish Superligaen is one of the leagues where the corner count typically goes higher - 60% of the 113 matches played so far having double figures for match corners.
One of those contributing has been Aarhus. They've taken 116 corners across 19 outings - an average of 6.11 per game.
Only Midtjylland have taken more and that's hardly a surprise when we factor in the high amount of crosses AGF are attempting.
Under the guidance of former Brentford, Leeds and Wigan boss Uwe Rösler, they've attempted 24.9 crosses per 90 this season - that is far higher than any the previously mentioned Midtjylland who sit second with 20.0.
It's why there's value in taking the 5/4 on AARHUS OVER 5.5 CORNERS.
Randers sit fifth in the table and they've typically started well in home games. They've scored the first goal in seven of nine in front of their own supporters.
It's more mixed for Aarhus in terms of getting the first on the road and there could well be a situation where they are chasing the game. Even if not, they've shown their ability to get corners based on the style of play.
In what is a contest which could go either way, we'll side with the competitive nature leading to a higher corner count.
Odds correct at 1610 GMT (27/02/25) unless otherwise stated
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