Football betting tips: EFL
Wednesday 20:00
1pt Tom Davies to score anytime in Sunderland vs Sheffield United at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Tom Davies 4+ total shots at 25/1 (Sky Bet)
The approach of backing Southampton's fouls line since their managerial change has been a successful one in the early stages.
The Saints hitting the marker of 17+ fouls landed a winner at 9/1 in the last column, that following up the 10/3 on 14+ on Boxing Day.
Unfortunately, they're not in action here as New Year's Day delivers a focus on the EFL action. I'll certainly be looking at it for the weekend though.
There are a number of games here which catch the eye for a variety of reasons. A clash between promotion hopefuls Sunderland and Sheffield United to close out the day is probably the highlight.
That contest features here, as do a number of games taking place in the traditional 3pm slot. We'll begin by discussing those.
Sunderland vs Sheffield United
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 13/10 | Draw 11/5 | Away 21/10
It's been a poor festive period for Sheffield United as injuries are starting to hit their starting XI.
They were beaten at home by Burnley on Boxing Day before a 1-1 draw with West Brom at Bramall Lane just days later. Hardly ideal form going to a Sunderland side also in the promotion picture.
But the Black Cats surprisingly lost to managerless Stoke last time out too. It's a meeting of two sides who need the three points so that they don't lose pace with the top.
Those injury issues for the Blades have seen TOM DAVIES brought into the side and the 16/1 on him to score anytime looks value based on recent showings.
The midfielder posted three shots in the draw with the Baggies and no player on the pitch had more. He had one effort after coming on at half-time against Burnley with a considerable four in the away win at Cardiff the game prior.
The latter was, again, the most of any player involved and he's given the freedom to get forward and join the attack despite his position in defensive midfield.
Davies hasn't been a prolific scorer throughout his career but he's got a different role here. Despite his campaign seeing very restricted minutes, he scored the winning goal as a second-half substitute in the last meeting between these two.
It's certainly an eye-catching price when we consider those previous performances.
And based on the prices, I'll also side with the 25/1 on DAVIES 4+ TOTAL SHOTS.
Game state could well be a factor if Sunderland grab the first goal at home. Ultimately, this is something Davies achieved recently and came close to replicating last time out.
You can get 9/4 on Davies having 2+ shots but I'll be a bit greedy with the huge odds on offer for four.
Wednesday 15:00
1pt Grimsby to score 2+ goals vs Accrington at 13/8 (General)
1pt Over 2.5 goals in Cardiff vs Coventry, Portsmouth vs Swansea, Wycombe vs Exeter & Chesterfield vs MK Dons at 11.06/1 (William Hill)
1pt Tom Krauss to be shown a card in Luton vs Norwich at 16/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Mark McGuinness to score anytime in Luton vs Norwich at 12/1 (General)
Wednesday 17:30
1.5pts Over 2.5 goals in Hull vs Middlesbrough at 10/11 (General)
Goals accumulator
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Wednesday
We've gone close with a couple of these over the festive period and the fixture list again presents an opportunity to back four games to go over 2.5 goals.
Two of those are in the Sky Bet Championship, with CARDIFF's meeting with COVENTRY a couple of weeks ago delivering a 2-2 draw.
Three of Cardiff's last four have seen three or more goals scored - the one game that fell short being against Sheffield United - while it's also happened in three of the last four for Frank Lampard's Coventry City™️.
Backing over 2.5 goals has been a winner in each of PORTSMOUTH's last four games and there's every chance of a repeat as they host SWANSEA.
Eight of the Swans' last nine have delivered the overs line, with the one game that fell short being their 1-1 draw with Luton.
Into League One and WYCOMBE's clash with EXETER has goals potential. It's been a winner in four of the last five for Wycombe.
Exeter's games have delivered goals in recent weeks with their last five having three or more - that includes the 4-4 thriller with Crawley last time out.
And finally, we're siding with another MK DONS game as they go to CHESTERFIELD. It's been a winner in six of their last seven on the road.
It's also landed in five of Chesterfield's last seven at home, while their last game was a 2-1 defeat at Bradford.
Luton vs Norwich
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Wednesday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 29/20 | Draw 12/5 | Away 17/10
Luton's season has been one of huge disappointment but their recent home form has provided them with a small bit of positivity.
Rob Edwards' side are unbeaten in their last six in front of their own supporters with four of the last five ending in victory. They've actually been a solid enough home outfit all season with just three defeats in 12.
In Norwich, they take on a team who have managed just two wins from 12 on the road - they're without a win in their last eight away.
This is a meeting of two sides who sit in the top five for fouls committed this season. With referee Jarred Gillett showing at least six yellows in three of his four Premier League outings this season, plenty of cards could be dished out.
TOM KRAUSS has done incredibly well to avoid a CARD this season given the number of fouls he's committed.
Five of Krauss' last six starts have delivered at least two fouls, with a total of nine of his 16 starts hitting this marker. Despite this, he's avoided cautions.
The midfielder is used to picking up cards though. He was shown five despite only starting 13 games for Mainz last season, with eight in 31 appearances for Schalke in 22/23 and nine in 27 starts for Nürnberg in 20/21.
Given the likely high fouls count of this contest, Krauss could receive his first of the campaign.
This game also presents us with a set-piece mismatch and I'm happy to side with the 12/1 on MARK MCGUINNESS TO SCORE ANYTIME because of it.
The centre-back has won a significant six aerial duels in each of his last three league outings and that led to two shots against Swansea and one against Derby.
He found the net in the 1-0 win over Hull in November and there should be chances to strike here. He did also grab an assist in their loss to Norwich a few weeks ago.
Luton boast the third-highest xG created from set-pieces in the Championship this season with only Derby seeing more goals as a result of corners and free-kicks.
Only Sheffield Wednesday have conceded more than Norwich from these situations. McGuinness seems to take up central or deeper positions at corners which is ideal for second-ball contacts.
Accrington vs Grimsby
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Wednesday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 13/10 | Draw 9/4 | Away 7/4
It appears that Grimsby may have accidentally found themselves in the automatic promotion picture.
They go into 2025 level on points with Notts County in second and yet, remarkably, they sit on a -1 goal difference. They're the only side in the top half not sitting positive in this area.
It's all or nothing with Dave Artell's side. They've played 23 and drawn once. No side in England's top four divisions have seen the points shared on fewer occasions.
Wednesday takes them to an Accrington side who they battered 5-2 at the beginning of December and at 13/8, taking GRIMSBY 2+ GOALS certainly appeals.
Backing this has been a winner in four of the Mariners' last six games and they put three past Morecambe in an away game during this run.
Accrington, meanwhile, have shipped two goals in each of their last four home games across all competitions - two of those coming against a poor Swindon outfit.
Stanley have also conceded 2+ in seven of their last eight games. In seven meetings with the current top seven, they've allowed 2+ against five of them.
Hull vs Middlesbrough
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Wednesday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 11/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 23/20
Hull's away win over Blackburn on Sunday was massive. It was a result which moved them out of the relegation zone as we go into 2025.
The Ruben Selles era has been positive enough considering he inherited a side in real trouble at the beginning of December. That trouble remains but belief may have returned.
Middlesbrough are the visitors on New Year's Day and they played out a tedious 0-0 draw with Burnley in their last contest. The Clarets' solid defensive structure played a significant part in that though.
The inverted wingers were largely useless throughout the 90 minutes so they will be hoping for more luck this time around and I'm happy to side with the 10/11 on OVER 2.5 GOALS.
In terms of the underlying metrics - focusing on the expected goals (xG) - Boro sit second for chances created in England's second tier. The 39.30 xG accurate enough to their 41 goals scored.
Defensively they've been average but injuries may cause them issues across the next few weeks.
Goalkeepers Sol Brynn and Seny Dieng are both unavailable for the visitors so third choice Tom Glover will continue in the Boro net.
Hull's two home games under Selles have delivered three goals and chances accumulating to 2.91 xG. They also created 1.33 xG's worth of chances in the win at Blackburn.
I'm not entirely sure which way this one will go but the potential for goals is there.
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (30/12/24)
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