Football betting tips: Bundesliga
Sunday
1.25pts Union Berlin Over 4.5 corners vs Eintracht Frankfurt (14:30) at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Union Berlin Over 5.5 corners vs Eintracht Frankfurt (14:30) at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
0.75pt Union Berlin Over 6.5 corners vs Eintracht Frankfurt (14:30) at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
It's the same avenue as recent weeks but this edition goes for a slightly different route.
Corners remain the bet as the past few weekends have delivered some interesting and encouraging results. Targeting the right games has seen winners or games fall just short - there hasn't really been one which has ended up miles off.
Rather than travel around Europe trying to find games with corners potential, I'm instead going to focus on just a few but ladder the lines.
And in this case, it's outsiders with shorter lines to hit. Teams who the betting don't believe will succeed but their style should see them have opportunities from set-piece situations.
The crosses attempted and corners taken relationship has been utilised again to pick out the teams of interest, with the right potential game state also factored in.
We'll see how the latest attempt goes and whether it's a path we continue down.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin
- Kick-off time: 14:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Mix
- Home 4/6 | Draw 29/10 | Away 18/5
Union Berlin saw an upturn in form following Steffen Baumgart's appointment during the winter break but three consecutive defeats has dragged them back towards relegation trouble.
They're six points clear at least so there is a comfort zone, and you could argue Sunday is the best time to play Eintracht Frankfurt as they're in the middle of a two-legged European tie with Ajax.
They won the first leg 2-1 on Thursday and they're in front of their own supporters next week. They do need to get back too winning ways in the Bundesliga but one eye will be on that game taking place a few days later.
Taking UNION BERLIN OVER 4.5 CORNERS is the play here, as is OVER 5.5 and OVER 6.5.
- CLICK HERE to back Union Berlin Over 4.5 corners with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Union Berlin Over 5.5 corners with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Union Berlin Over 6.5 corners with Sky Bet
Union took 11 in a home defeat to Holstein Kiel last time out, with seven coming when beaten at St. Pauli at the end of January.
They've seen an upturn in crossing attempts following the managerial change. Union were averaging 18.13 attempted under Bo Svensson with the figure at 22.22 with Baumgart.
That's seen a slight rise in their average corners taken per game too, moving from 4.93 to 5.11. The expected goals (xG) created from the chances are up too - 0.34 to 0.50.
In a game where they're outsiders, the value is there in taking the lower lines.
Already advised
Saturday
1.25pt Werder Bremen Over 3.5 corners vs Leverkusen (14:30) at 5/2 (BetVictor)
1pt Werder Bremen Over 4.5 corners vs Leverkusen (14:30) at 5/1 (bet365)
0.75pt Werder Bremen Over 5.5 corners vs Leverkusen (14:30) at 10/1 (bet365)
1.25pt Lens Over 4.5 corners vs Marseille (20:05) at 11/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Lens Over 5.5 corners vs Marseille (20:05) at 4/1 (bet365)
0.75pt Lens Over 6.5 corners vs Marseille (20:05) at 7/1 (bet365)
Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen
- Kick-off time: 14:30 GMT, Saturday
- Home 1/4 | Draw 19/4 | Away 9/1
This game delivers an interesting dynamic for Bayer Leverkusen.
Trailing Bayern Munich by eight points in the Bundesliga table, they are also three goals down to that same opponent in their Champions League round of 16 tie ahead of next week's second leg.
Xabi Alonso's side were deservedly beaten at the Allianz on Wednesday night and with the other fixture just days after this, we're currently unsure where the priority lies - even if it's a huge task to overturn the European deficit.
Werder Bremen are the visitors on Saturday, with the prices available making it worthwhile laddering OVER 3.5 BREMEN CORNERS, alongside OVER 4.5 and OVER 5.5.
- CLICK HERE to Werder Bremen Over 3.5 corners with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to Werder Bremen Over 4.5 corners with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to Werder Bremen Over 5.5 corners with Sky Bet
Bremen sit on the higher end of crosses attempted in Europe's big five leagues this season but that hasn't directly translated to corners.
What helps though recently is their poor run of form. They've lost their last five in all competitions with six or more corners taken by them in each of the last four.
Even if Leverkusen rotate, there is a likelihood that they could take the lead given the difference in quality of both sides. That creates the situation where Bremen are chasing.
And because they're such big outsiders, it's had an impact on the prices available in this market - low lines are available at big odds.
Leipzig took seven corners when facing Leverkusen in between two Champions League fixtures at the end of January, while Mönchengladbach had six before Leverkusen's trip to Atletico Madrid. St. Pauli had four before Alonso's side faced Inter.
Yverdon vs Winterthur
- Kick-off time: 17:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home evens | Draw 9/4 | Away 9/4
The Swiss Super League presents some interesting encounters in terms of corners this weekend. I felt it was worth flagging the 11/10 (bet365 and BoyleSports) available on UNDER 9.5 CORNERS.
As shown on the chart above, these two sides - who also occupy the bottom two spots in the table - rank incredibly low for both crosses attempted and corners taken.
The last time the sides met at the beginning of February delivered seven corners but that was with Yverdon 2-0 up on the hour mark. A closer game may see even fewer.
Considering the prices, there's some value in taking a low entertainment contest.
Young Boys vs Lausanne Sport
- Kick-off time: 17:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 19/20 | Draw 12/5 | Away 23/10
And at the same time, in the same league, it's worth taking the even money available with a few firms on OVER 10.5 CORNERS when Young Boys host Lausanne Sport.
While Winterthur and Yverdon rank lower on the scale, these two sides are the opposite. They cross plenty and as a result take a number of corners per game.
No side in the Swiss top-flight has taken more corners than Young Boys this season, while Lausanne have averaged a considerable 5.92 per outing.
In away games, that figure actually increases to 6.25. For Young Boys, they're returning a figure of 6.69 in home games.
When these sides met at the beginning of February there were a total of 12 corners. Lausanne also took six when facing Servette - another high cross/corner team - last time out.
At the prices, it's worth considering taken a higher corners line here.
Marseille vs Lens
- Kick-off time: 20:05 GMT, Saturday
- Home 8/15 | Draw 16/5 | Away 9/2
Lens are an interesting prospect when it comes to corners betting.
They're not exactly flying in the French top-flight, in fact they sit ninth in the Ligue 1 table, and yet they rank highly for both crosses attempted and corners taken.
Heading to Marseille as big outsiders gives us value in taking LENS OVER 4.5 CORNERS as well as OVER 5.5 and OVER 6.5.
- CLICK HERE to Lens Over 4.5 corners with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to Lens Over 5.5 corners with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to Lens Over 6.5 corners with Sky Bet
Lens are averaging 5.92 corners taken per game, with their 22.21 crosses attempted ranking them fourth of 96 teams who feature in Europe's big five leagues.
They took nine in a recent loss to Le Havre, with 11 at Nantes before that and seven against Strasbourg. It helps they're on a four-game losing run.
Marseille have lost just two of their 12 league games in front of their own supporters this season and have grabbed the first goal in seven of those.
A repeat would be ideal for this bet as it adds in the game state factor. Even if not, Lens' style will always make it a contender.
Having taken four corners at PSG, seven at Monaco and three at Nice, I'll back Will Still's side to float around the required area in their Saturday night encounter.
Odds correct at 1005 GMT (07/03/25)
Jong AZ vs Jong Utrecht
- Kick-off time: 19:00 GMT, Friday
- Home evens | Draw 12/5 | Away 2/1
There's going to be a few games included here which won't have points staked on them. That doesn't mean I'm not confident in them, but they don't fit the 'ladder' approach of the column.
The Dutch Eerste Divisie is usually a good one for corners betting but the youth sides which feature in the league don't rank particularly highly on the crossing statistics.
You can get 6/5 (bet365) on UNDER 9.5 CORNERS in the match. That looks a solid bet based on the seasonal statistics.
Jong AZ are miles behind the others in terms of average crosses attempted but they've still managed to take some corners - although it's not as many as the others.
Jong Utrecht are also another who rank low for both crosses and corners across the course of the season.
When these sides last met in October there were seven corners taken, with eight and seven in the two contests last season.
Jong AZ saw five when they last faced Jong Ajax, with nine taken in the meeting with Jong PSV. For Utrecht's reserves, the 15 against Jong Ajax feels like an outlier considering there were nine in the previous meeting.
They also saw five in the August meeting with Jong PSV.
Odds correct at 1740 GMT (06/03/25) unless otherwise stated
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