- Tom Carnduff's Fußball am Freitag: P/L: +10.15pts | ROI: 56% | Staked: 18pts | Returned: 28.15pts
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
2pts Yukinari Sugawara to have 2+ total shots at 12/5 (bet365)
1pt Yukinari Sugawara to have 3+ total shots at 8/1 (bet365)
It's hardly the thriller served up to us on this Friday evening I'm afraid.
Calling it a mid-table clash gives too much credit to Wolfsburg, a side who have managed just one win in their last six - the other five ending in defeat.
And even that victory, which was a narrow 1-0er away at Hamburg, saw their opponents posting 27 to Wolfsburg's six. Sure, we can point towards game state but even that level of imbalance goes beyond it.
They were also beaten by second division outfit Holstein Kiel at home in the last round of the cup. On the results front, looking towards Werder Bremen is certainly an option.
Werder Bremen vs Wolfsburg
- Kick-off: Friday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: BBC iPlayer, Bundesliga YouTube
- Live odds, form and stats
But there's one approach which does provide a bigger price.
Bremen's right-back YUKINARI SUGAWARA has been solid enough in defence this season yet he's looked to contribute in attack as well.
Only forward Marco Grüll has seen more shots among Bremen players this season, making the 12/5 on Sugawara 2+ TOTAL SHOTS worth backing, alongside the 8s available for 3+ at smaller stakes.
The two or more pick has been a winner in three of his last seven league outings, while he also achieved three or more in the win over Union Berlin and the defeat away at Bayern (where he posted the huge tally of five).
You can even add in the three shots he took in the Carabao Cup contest against Northampton before he left Southampton in the summer window.
Sugawara's been given the freedom to drive forward and attack when the opportunity presents itself despite his position in the defensive line.
This is a contest where he should certainly see that because, among the many issues Wolfsburg currently have, availability at left-back is one of them.
The first choice Joakim Mæhle is currently sidelined for an unspecified period of time with a shoulder injury, meaning that Aaron Zehnter should continue in that position.
Zehnter has struggled in his appearances. He did score in the early season draw with Mainz but the performances just haven't been there in this rough patch of form the team finds itself in.
He's not overly engaged in defensive actions which could be problematic dealing with Bremen's attacking right side, especially with Grüll liking to drift around the pitch allowing space to be exploited.
Bremen's shot count has also been steady in home games.
Considering the low probability nature of the majority of Sugawara's chances, this provides a more appealing route than settling for a goal.
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (05/11/25)
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