- Tom Carnduff's Fußball am Freitag: P/L: +22.95pts | ROI: 109% | Staked: 21pts | Returned: 43.95pts
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
1pt Phillipp Mwene to be shown a card at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Bazoumana Touré to be shown a card at 15/4 (bet365, Betway)
0.5pt Mwene and Touré both to be shown a card at 20/1 (bet365)
Much like the rest of Europe's top leagues, last week presented us with the final international-based break of the calendar year. The Bundesliga is now in its last stretch before the winter break.
We've got a month of action to come pre-Christmas. That is enough time to have a significant impact on a season. Bayern, already in pole position for yet another title, can add to their existing six-point lead while those at the bottom will want to ensure they're not cut adrift.
One of those is Mainz, who host Friday's free-to-air action. Ten games have delivered just five points and they appear to be another German side who have struggled with balancing domestic action with appearances in European competition.
Considering that Hoffenheim, their opponents here, have comfortably won their games away at those towards the bottom this season, it could be another occasion in which the home side leave empty-handed.
Mainz vs Hoffenheim
- Kick-off: Friday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: BBC iPlayer, Bundesliga YouTube
- Live odds, form and stats
This does give us a meeting between two of the leaders for fouls committed in Germany's top-flight this season.
Hoffenheim's 15.1 per game average tops the charts while Mainz's 13.3 puts them fifth. In home games, Mainz bump up to 14.0 which is the third-most in games in front of a team's own supporters.
In away games, Hoffenheim also lead at 15.6. This looks a really good match-up for cards, especially when we also factor in the referee.
Sascha Stegemann has shown at least three cards in three of his four Bundesliga games this season (the one falling short seeing two), with seven shown in his single appearance in the second division.
Ten of his 16 top-flight outings in the last campaign also delivered 3+. There are certainly players to target.
Hoffenheim have demonstrated a clear preference to create attacks down their left side, while Mainz have a liking for the right. That flank of the pitch should see plenty of back and forth.
PHILLIPP MWENE should be on the right side of the Mainz five-man back line. He's got two cards on his tally this season and is priced at 4/1 and above across the board TO BE SHOWN A CARD again here.
Bazoumana Touré is likely to lead Hoffenheim's attack down the left side and he's their most fouled player this season. In fact, he's been fouled at least once in all-but-two of his league outings.
Even if Mwene returns to the left this bet still has a chance. He committed three fouls when facing Leverkusen in that position previously and two in the loss to Dortmund a couple of weeks prior.
Those who use bet365 will also be able to take Mwene for 1+ fouls at 5/6, but given that the next-best is 1/2, it won't make an appearance in the staking plan.
I'll also side with TOURE TO BE SHOWN A CARD with similar on offer. He's got one on his tally but is a regular in the fouls count this season.
Nine of ten in the Bundesliga have returned at least one but I would say that this is a pick worth backing with those bookmakers who offer the super sub if you can get it - he's been taken off around 75 minutes in recent weeks.
But he's racking up the fouls before then, and with the prices available, it's still worth backing.
Odds correct at 1530 GMT (20/11/25)
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